Posted on 06/03/2009 2:32:29 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
NASA finally mentions the Maunder Minimum in its discussion of the current prolonged solar minimum, but it STILL does not mention that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the onset of the Little Ice Age, or that the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800’s was also cold, as was the unnamed fin-de-the-1800’s minimum.
Thar she blows, the Maunder Minimum of sunspot activity:
As it has done for two years now, NASA is predicting that solar cycle 24 will ramp up tomorrow. Should that broken-clock prediction hits its hour, then NASA is also predicting that solar cycle 24 will have the modest amplitude of the 1928 cycle, indicated by the red arrow.
A look at the temperature record shows the correspondence between solar activity and temperature:
Maunder Minimum cold; Dalton minimum (just before the red thermometer-based line starts) cold; unnamed end-of-1800’s minimum (first dip in red line) cold; “grand maximum” solar activity between 1920 and 2000 warm.
NASA is acutely aware of this correspondence, but is keeping John Q Public in the dark. Now that the sun has gone quiet again, the climate is cooling again, but you will never hear it from James Hansen’s underlings at NASA:
(Excerpt) Read more at floppingaces.net ...
fyi
OH, wait a minute... this sunspot is more the size of a pinspot, and its just about dissipated anyways... never mind!
Taking a quick look at that chart, the 1928 cycle looks like it is roughly both the median and average cycle peak of the 80 years previous to 1928. But 1928 is also the minimum cycle peak for the 80 years after 1928.
Could it be that the sun is just reverting back to the norm after being above the norm for the last 80 years?
Perhaps what is described as the modest peak of 1928 will be the normal peak going forward from here.
It's man made cataclysm!
SUVs!
Ozone depletion!
Industrialization!
It's airplanes!
Auto exhaust!
Panic, and doom!
Tofu!
Tree cutting!
Electrical usage!
Cattle Flatulence!
Mass Hysteria!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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thud
Even the stupidest of our Congresscritters will know when the cold has fallen back to the levels of the 1970s because of the snow, if nothing else. The rest of the people are going to figure it out anyway.
It will be interesting to see what the temps are going to be in the US this coming winter. Last winter was colder than normal in the US. If we get another winter like that, what will the GW nutjobs say?
There is no doubt about it. Is there any area of science that can be trusted to say the truth and not bow down to political correctness?
I doubt it.
They'll say that global warming makes the earth colder. Seriously, that's what they say.
Global warming is a bulletproof theory. If it rains, global warming. If there's a drought, global warming. If there are more hurricanes, global warming. If there are less hurricanes, global warming. There are more wolves in Arizona because of global warming. There are less wolves in Texas because of global warming.
And no matter what the weather is, that weather is caused by man and threatens all life on the planet.
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I can verify that the data coming out of NASA is indeed selective. I worked for NASA for 12 years and can tell you that the chief scientist I worked under was most frustrated by the fact that the “research” in this area was driven almost entirely by grants which came only for those whose “research” was geared toward proving AGW. The raw data didn’t support it, but that’s where the money was, and still is.
“A researcher will never see what his paycheck prefers he not see.”
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FEATURE New Solar Cycle Prediction
May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."
The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.
Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.
"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.
Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC
Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."
In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.
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Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA
Please ignore the implied links at the bottom of the article....
Look for some cold winters ahead...
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