The above is absolutely wrong. It is the reason why so many gamblers lose their shirts. If the odds against winning the lottery are say 1 in 100,000,000 and you played it 99,999,999 times wihtout winning, the chances of winning on your next bet are still 1 in 100,000,000. Random events do not have a memory.
No, you are absolutely wrong. If you bet on the lottery on the next 100,000,000 plays, your odds of winning at least once are 0.9999999999.
You are talking a posteri about 1 chance while looking back at 99,999,999 failures; he is talking a priori looking forward at 100,000,000 chances. They are not the same situation as even the garden-variety, mathematically-challenged Freeper can tell.
I ask you, will you admit you talking about a different situation than the one he proposed?
Your gambler analogy doesnt hold up here Gore. Life continually propagates itself, in theory there is no limit to the number of chances you have - there is no running out of money. Consider bacteria. The bacteria are a self-renewing population. These guys divide once every 20 minutes - they're playing with house money. When an unfavorable mutation occurs, that bacterium simply die and the gap is filled in with the progeny of the wild types - no big deal. I used your lottery metaphor to point out that even if something has a low probability, given enough chances you will eventually hit it. So after many years and generations of bacteria, eventually you are going to get a mutation which confers an advantage, even if the odds are 1,000,000 to 1 for that hit.