Posted on 10/18/2014 1:06:39 PM PDT by NYer
Midterm elections are all about turning out base constituencies. Over the last few decades, there have been few more reliable voters for Republicans than white evangelical Protestants. This year, however, GOP candidates may be getting less help from this group—not because white evangelical Protestants are becoming less supportive or less motivated, but simply because they are declining as a proportion of the population, even in Southern states.
White evangelical Protestants have remained a steadfast Republican constituency in both presidential and midterm congressional elections ever since the Reagan presidency, which marked what political scientists Merle and Earl Black dubbed “the great white switch.” In 2008 and 2012, roughly three-quarters of white born-again Christians supported GOP nominees John McCain (73 percent) and Mitt Romney (78 percent). In the 2010 midterm election, similar numbers of white born-again Christians (77 percent) supported the GOP House candidate in their districts.
During the heady days of evangelical prominence in the 1980s and 1990s, white evangelical Protestant leaders frequently noted the decline of their more liberal mainline Protestant cousins, but now white evangelicals are seeing their own populations shrink. In recent years, for example, the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical denomination in the country, has reported steady declines in membership and new baptisms. Since 2007, the number of white evangelical Protestants nationwide has slipped from 22 percent in 2007 to 18 percent today.
A look at generational differences demonstrates that this is only the beginnings of a major shift away from a robust white evangelical presence and influence in the country. While white evangelical Protestants constitute roughly three in 10 (29 percent) seniors (age 65 and older), they account for only one in 10 (10 percent) members of the Millennial generation (age 18-29).
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
Like I’ve been saying in many a post, the 2013 election means ALMOST nothing. it’s the long game that worries me. That’s why it is so important, now, to rebuff the GOPe.
Over time we will die out and not be a force of any kind in a Party that will be in permanent minority status. This is the first time in our History we have had this titanic of a demographic and cultural shift. And the shift does not favor Conservatism so Conservatism better find a voice and soon.
Well said NYer. Well said. They are utterly clueless aren’t they?
Imho, the word “Hispanic” is almost meaningless.
Tell ya what. You just keep on saying it’s “leftest lies”. That’s like standing in the rain, naked, and saying you aren’t wet.
SO many States trending, and voting reliably, blue that never did. Polls on policy are showing a Left moving populace. Gay “marriage”. The ONLY reason we are hanging on one iota is because of some 5-4 decisions by SCOTUS that will not last a generation.
Everything in America is racing Left but yeah ... it’s one big lie. It’s why the GOP STILL may not take the Senate when it should be a slam dunk.
hmmmmmmm . . .
So you know ONE guy, and that’s “proof positive”. Uh huh.
Kids are always more libtard.
Only places in Dixie gone purple is where Yankees in abundance have moved in
Florida
Atlanta Metro
Nashville city
Austin city
North Carolina academia triangle
Nowhere in the US comes close to as much a percentage of socially conservative whites as here not even vaunted Idaho or Utah
The South has always leaned right on culture regardless the party
We do get GOP outsiders here but often they are wobbly on culture
South still has highest regular attendance church folk....sadly tropafricans vote victim hood rather than scripture
You would think that the liberals would put some of their “thinking” to the curb like the junky stuff being thrown out before moving to the south and not putting into practice that old beloved saying “when in Rome, do as the Romans do”.
“Kids are always more libtard.”
Wait until those same “kids” get out into the “real world” and let’s just say it begins to BITT you HARD.
I still say that the GOP will take the Senate. October “surprise” came in the form of the ebola virus and that “open borders” stuff is going to be factored in.
Pagans flooding in to the south from the northeast and California don't help, either...
Take confort, “blowback” is coming.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.