Posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:00 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.
The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.
Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.
Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are “bolting from the base”. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.
If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes
With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.
In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.
What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
A few of these organizations may have charters as 527’s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?
We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.
Unfortunately, for these African-American evangelical Christians, they have put party and color above the Lord. How can they in good conscience support someone and a party that shakes its fist in the face of God? Sorry, I’m just wondering about their Christianity and where their faith lies.
I managed to make it through those years, I figure I'm good for 4 more, regardless of which liberal wins the presidential election.
The GOP has cried 'wolf' too many times.
I'm not voting for a liberal. Regardless of party.
/johnny
Only the perpetrators claim its not EITHER nobama / OR Romney.
When the USA goes to hell, we will know who to thank.
Silly children.
?
Anyone who votes for Obama is not a conservative. The only way a genuine conservative could vote for Obama is if they have some twisted view that reelecting Obama would somehow usher in a true conservative President in 2016.
We always see these polls showing many more people self-identify as conservative than liberal. Considering how the last 5 presidential elections have gone, we have to consider the possibility that either many of these self-described conservatives are not really conservative, or a solid majority of self-described moderates are in fact liberals.
This phyops chess game is too fast for these checkers players.
Unfortunately, I think they're right about this one. Another four years, and I think we go down for the count.
It's not two libs, it's a radical leftist, Marxist, anti-American versus a sorry RINO squish with too many lib ideas.
I'll take the RINO squish any day as compared to the American hating, muzzie loving Marxist destroyer.
Right and wrong.
No one is abandoning Romney. The GOPe tried to force Romney down their throats, and they aren't having it.
Nor, as far as I have seen, have ANY Freepers said that they would vote for Obama. They have simply said that they cannot in good conscience vote for either one of them, since they are both gay marriage supporters, baby killers, and big government socialists. And, I would add, entitled narcissists of the first order.
Is this the fault of Evangelicals with principles? Or is it the fault of the corrupt GOP party handlers, who keep on trying to force lousy candidates on the conservative base?
Nobody in his right mind WANTS to be put in the position of not being able to vote for either candidate. But that's apparently what the corrupt politicians keep trying to do to us. It's a hell of a mess.
/johnny
Tools more like it. Many said it would be “OK” if Obama won the last election because, like Carter, he would guarantee the next Reagan. We see how that worked out. Now they say that it will guarantee a Conservative in four years.
Of course, that is exactly what the left wants. They want Conservatives to keep hoping for a savior ‘from the government who is here to help’; right around the next election (never this one.)
Reagan would be rolling over. He would be the first to say the answer is not in the government but in us.
The best we should expect from a Commander in Chief of the United States Armed Forces is someone loyal to the troops who won’t stab them in the back. For pretty much everything else, the best we can expect is someone to do the least damage. The rest is up to us. We have been failing waiting for someone else to save us (from the government who is here to help).
But we’ll always have those telling us to ‘just sit this out, let the left win this one because it will help us with the next one’.
/johnny
Sort of what I was think about post 13. Come on, surely you can remember what you posted a minute ago on 13.
Do you?
This should never be a problem in a campaign, and it is best dealt with early in the candidate selection process by making sure ALL possible candidates are probably acceptable to the largest party coalition members.
It's that simple!
We did this with Goldwater, and although the Rockefeller Republicans are blamed for dropping the ball in the Eastern states, his bigger problem was with the very segments of the party that wanted him to run ~ mostly in the Midwest.
Best bet at this state is to fire ALL his campaign staff and advisors and bring in a boatload of Conservatives.
This man is bad news, actually, he's horrible news. I don't think I can take another four years of waking up every day to find out what disaster he and his Marxist, anti-American cohorts have crammed down our throats. I'm not sure we will survive if he wins. He's shown what he will do, he has a record of unparalleled destruction, I can't imagine him being unfettered by reelection for another four years.
Survival is a good thing.
The main guideline here is to "discuss the issues all you want, but do not make it personal."
Making the thread "about" individual Freepers is a form of "making it personal."
“I’m not surprised at this. At least 10% of the members of this forum have said that they will not support Romney no matter what. They will either vote Obama or not vote at all, a distinction without much of a difference.”
Yep, and when he is re-elected they will whine it up.
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