Posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:00 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.
The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.
Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.
Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are “bolting from the base”. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.
If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes
With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.
In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.
What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
A few of these organizations may have charters as 527’s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?
We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.
That's what you have to get me behind your guy? With his record?
Pardon me if I pass. You just damned him with faint praise.
Besides, my vote is meaningless, if earthshattering... Don't ask me... it's the pubbies that do this every time...
/johnny
“Enabling the support of baby killers?”
Like Obama? That’s exactly what you’re doing.
/johnny
Your vote may individually be meaningless, but you may be influencing others with your hyper political “purity” in swing states to help Obama by sitting this important election out.
Romney is a mushy moderate, not a liberal, and he is certainly not a state socialist Marxist like Obama. One has to be prudent in this world and sometimes one has to make discriminating difficult choices between two less than ideal outcomes.
If Romney doesn't get the vote, it's because Romney didn't get the vote.
Don't blame me. Blame the GOP and company.
/johnny
Cope.
Shoulda thought of that before the GOP went stupid mushy again.
/johnny
It is very simple. No one cares about your vote. I have read how you will never vote for Romney at least a thousand times. We know you discount the possibility of redemption for Mr. Romney. Once a person of less than Conservative or even Liberal leanings, always a Marxist baby killer. WE GET IT! Like most people, I usually ignore it, as I do the ramblings of a demented person. Yet, it gets to be annoying.
I do not CARE who you vote for, NOBODY DOES. Your vote doesn't matter. Not in the Electoral College. Not in the tally for the State of TX. TX is a Romney state by double digits. It isn't even being contested.
What does matter is that you are a kill joy, a downer, a depressant of those who KNOW that Obama is in favor of infanticide. We KNOW that he is trying to implement the elimination of the right to religious exemption and conscience. We KNOW that he is a Statist. We KNOW that he is a disaster economically, Foreign Policy wise and Constitutionally. We know that our futures and the futures of our children and grandchildren are at stake in this election.
Those of us that live in swing states have a moral obligation to do all we can to deny Obama the second term he desires to fundamentally change America into the country he dreams it should be. Even more importantly, I can no longer stand to hear Obama's voice. I hate it like poison.
Do everyone a favor and take the next 50 days off from pontificating about Mr. Romney. Simply refrain from posting your redundant drivel.
“Tea Party evangelicals.” Isn’t that an oxymoron? The Tea Party is atheistic secularist - their downfall. They refuse to put God in their platform. The Tea Party is like the Democratic Party of America without the socialism, but that is exactly their ignorance. Without God - failure. The Tea Party has already failed...only remnants left.
Conservatives not supporting RINO Romney...go figure.
If Romney had not picked Ryan, he would most certainly be dead in the water...their contest for American dollars would be over. That is his only saving grace and we will see if it is God’s will to save the USA or not in November. We could even be blessed with a miracle.
Pray, pray, and pray some more for God’s mercy on this nation and on the whole world. With things going the way they are now, we will all be begging for His mercy soon. Hopefully the tide will change direction.
There are dozens of different groups and movements within the Republican coalition ~ however, it's not so much the base that's a problem, but a group that is not part of the base ~ we've ended up calling it the GOP-e on FR. They are at most 15% if you count all their hangers-on and supplicants.
Who appointed you chief censor.
Seems to me its just as easy for those like you pushing a deeply flawed liberal candidate to take the next 50 days off.
Really if you don't like what those who will never vote for R/R have to say then just ignore them..bashing the social conservatives is getting old and I suspect is counterproductive to getting your guy elected your sole focus may be getting a liberal elected at the top of the ticket elected but telling social conservatives their vote is meaningless may be just the holier than thou crap that keeps many from the polls to elect conservatives down ticket. Push your candidate all you want but do conservatives a favor and stop bashing those who will never vote for Romney so that conservatives down ticket can get elected in states that are going for either liberal at the top of the ticket but have competitive races in the Senate and House.
The people on this thread do not know Mitt Romney's position on abortion.
Thank You! I am discouraged on a daily basis, while reading post on FR, at the number of “conservatives”, “tea party”, or “what evers” who still do not realize it is over. We are now 4 years past the “tipping point”. It is time for planning how to rebuild from the Hell we are now having crash around us.
Why do so many REFUSE to learn from history? It is always clear to look back at the point where things turned. It is so hard to see it at the time because to see it takes guts, not intelligence. Wishfull thinking kills your grand kids.
I look to an O win as the motivation of a dramatically stepped up citizens action movement, much as the Tea Party began a dramatic change in political action. There were more than a million people who turned up in DC to oppose Obamacare. His election will bring out larger numbers with greater staying power to eclipse OWS.
When hard working citizens are faced with the destruction of their lives by government there will be an uprising like we have not seen since the veterans camp out in DC following WWI. The single aim will be to bring down this corrupt administration. Short of blood in the streets this is the only way to end this reign of terror.
Romney wasn’t my first choice, but his stock has moved up significantly as I have learned more about him.
The real key is actually the Congress! If we can get the right kind of bills and budgets passed, I am sure Romney will sign them. We must get the Senate and a President that will sign what the conservatives (I pray) send up. We, the people, also need to give Romney guidance early and often to preclude a miss step that his staff doesn’t want to take back. We also need someone in DOJ (and a whole new staff) to clean up the Democrat corruption. Keep the knife at their throats and they will be a lot more respectful.
/johnny
Yep. Even though another 4 years of Hussein will be terrible, you’re not going to find true conservatives voting for Romney.
I don’t like it either way, but this is what is going to happen.
Sarah Palin has already endorsed Mitt.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.