[Natural Law]

"After the convention, then you can be sure."

Of course there could be an event not seen in recent memory or an October surprise, but I doubt that you would be willing to make any meaningful wager that the candidates will someone other than Obama and Romney.

[svcw]

After the convention has nothing to do with an October surprise, candidates will emerge from there and at this point we can only speculate who they will be.
The conventions as far I know are in August not October.