I don’t know that there was any exit poll that specifically asked religion, and I don’t believe Mormons would necessarily tell the truth about their religion if there was (we see a lot of LDS lying about being LDS even on here. Why? Because they think it gives them credibility to be a non-Mormon and defend Mormonism - Szonian admits he did this when he was LDS and several LDS who have been zotted did as well). I will admit I even lied about being Mormon (said I wasn’t) when I was LDS if I thought it would help. That is before I found Christ and became a Christian. Never discredit ‘lying for the Lord’ even in politics with the LDS. But I digress...
I did find THIS extensive exit poll from the 2010 NV election. Lets look at some of the questions in light of the possibility of Mormon votes for Reid, knowing what we know about the LDS.
Again, I know LDS culture and mindset but that aside...
One of the articles mentioned that the LDS make up 5.2% of NV voters and that they turn out in higher percentages than the general population. (I do not disagree with that).
Harry Reid won by 5.8% of the vote. http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/nevada
Also, lets figure in the prevailing view of Mormons as conservatives, tea party supporters, republicans, and the like. I will skip factors like age, income, college education and degrees (although that does apply to a larger number of LDS).
Now to the questions and percentages...
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a (Republican)...11% Reid.
On most political matters, do you consider yourself: (Conservative) 18% for Reid
In the 2008 election for president, did you vote for: (McCain) 10% for Reid.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Somewhat disapprove 46% for Reid. Strongly disapprove 7% for Reid.
Is your opinion of the Democratic Party: Unfavorable 12% for Reid.
Is your opinion of the Republican Party: Favorable 13% for Reid.
Which is closer to your view:Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 21% for Reid.
How do you feel about the Tea Party movement? Strongly support 7% for Reid. Somewhat support 15% for Reid.
Was one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate today to send a message:In favor of the Tea Party movement 15% for Reid.
Now, why would pro-tea party, conservative, Republicans vote for Reid for any other reason than his religion?
You are asking for evidence that does not appear to exist other than through extrapolating corollary characteristics. Additionally, if you calculate in the percentage of liberal, democrats, anti tea party people who voted AGAINST Reid, the numbers are much less than ‘conservative, tea party, republicans who voted FOR him.
What other group can you name, that votes as a block (like most Mormons) that would match those characteristics? Utah went 94% for Romney in the primary, btw.
Also, I know so many LDS in Vegas and Utah because I used to live there when I was LDS and had other LDS friends who moved to Vegas.
One told me that he was voting for Reid because he would rather have a Mormon than a ‘gentile’. I asked him how he handled the Presidential elections and he responded he didn’t vote for non-Mormons ever. But he is an exception.
On the other hand, Mormons are primarily white, and whites voted for Angle 52-42%. Reid won because of large majorities of blacks, asians, and hispanics.
While Reid won 10% of the McCain vote, Angle won 11% of the Obama vote. And actually, that shows another key to the Reid victory — he crushed Angle with people who had not voted in 2008 (68-29).
And while Reid got 21% of the pro-Tea-Party vote, Angle got 22% of the anti-Tea-Party vote.
I find exit polls to be confused in that regard; There is always this 10-15% number that seem to vote against their own professed interests.
I know Mormons tend to vote socially conservative; I don’t know that they consider themselves tea party members. I do see your reasoning, and it has some merit. I would say it isn’t enough to support the argument that Reid got a majority of the Mormon vote; but it certainly would be consistant with that theory.
I appreciate you taking the time to do that analysis. I had looked more at the demographic data (college graduate, age, race, economic status), which were also weak data points. I do wish someone would have asked the religion question, because I think it would be fascinating.
Anyway, I don’t even think it would be impossible that Mormons would have voted in the majority for Reid over Angle; between him being a Mormon, and the effective assault on Angle being a bigot using quotes from her long-gone ex-pastor, there would be reason for it. I simply thought, after looking at the articles published before and after the race, that Reid was not getting the Mormon support you might expect.
BTW, I believe people lie sometimes about their religion, but I never really understood it. What’s the point of having a religion if you don’t believe in it enough to stand up for it?
On the other hand, Peter denied Jesus 3 times, so who am I to judge? :-)