I think you could take a look at your view and see circular reasoning, combined with hindsight.
Everything you say in this context is only known, by you, looking backwards. Like this: had he been elect he would have believed, and we can know he’s not elect because he didn’t believe.
Consider eliminating the circle. He’s elect because he believed.
You have that exactly backwards according to scripture:
Act 13:48 And when the Gentiles heard this, they began rejoicing and glorifying the word of the Lord, and as many as were appointed to eternal life believed.
They were not appointed to eternal life BECAUSE they believed. They believed because they were appointed to eternal life. Otherwise Acts is wrong.