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I breath a sigh of relief at this news, but what the 4% figure says is that celibacy might not be the problem.

On one hand, if the population of sexually active men in America also contains about 4% offenders, then celibacy probably isn't the problem. If, on the other hand, the population of sexually active men in American contains significantly less than 4% offenders, then again celibacy might be the problem. To take it further, if the second proposition is true, the problem could lie in the character of the particular type of person who becomes a priest, or in some other aspect of priestly life.

Ultimately the 4% number makes the frequency of offenses less alarming on the face, but the problem demands more study to really come to any useful conclusions. It might also be useful to determine what percentage of sexually active non-Catholic clergymen have been accused of preying on youths in this manner.

"On one hand, if the population of sexually active men in America also contains about 4% offenders, then celibacy probably isn't the problem."

It's really not that simple.

Even the Jay report admits that around 80 percent of the offenses were homosexual in nature. The real figure is probably closer to 99%.

The largest study yet done of men with SSAD reported that over 70% of them *admitted* to debouching underage boys. There's no way to prove how many of the other 20-something percent were lying, though experience tells me they all were.

That almost certainly means that the percentage of heterosexual priests who molested is much smaller than the percentage of heterosexuals who molest in the general population.

There's really not much point in comparing percentages of molesters among priests with SSAD and men in the general population with SSAD, as the Vatican forbids the ordaining of men with SSAD.

Further, we're dealing only with those who got caught. We have no idea how many were clever enough to keep their indiscretions a hundred miles from the flagpole.

It seems likely, though, given their shared disorder, that the number of men with SSAD who will pork a tender young boy if they think they can get away with it is roughly the same for both priests and the general population--around 100%.