California Recall Live Thread

[Sabertooth]

Do it California. Post here.

[B Knotts]

I don't know why they still want to fight.

[hattend]

DU= Duh-mecrat-ick Underground

DemocraticUnderground.com

[B Knotts]

I took a gander over there. Actually, there wasn't much going on regarding the recall except for a thread about some kook candidate getting roughed up after trying to storm a Schwarzenegger rally.

It was filled with a handful of the predictable Nazi comments.

[veronica]

It does not constitute a flame war to state the fact, that McClintock may be the spoiler. If that fact bothers you, so be it.

[finnman69]

Ambrose is either trying to make Arnold supporters feel like crap by dragging down Arnold, or he is trying to boost Arnold by driving people to the polls.

[StriperSniper]

Cruz voted for Arnold!

Hey why not? Davis voted for McClintock, I heard him say that he voted for the one most qualified to be governor.

[Ichneumon]

Even if Arnold wins, I will still be saying McClintock should have dropped out.

You're entitled to your illogical opinion.

[goldstategop]

The truth is with this high turnout... let's face it, where turnout is UP over last year and DOWN where it was up last year... no wonder DU isn't running an active recall thread. Its not their cup of tea.

[hoosiermama]

Remember the first debate. Ahhhnold didn't show. He was at a rally, energizing young people to get out the vote. Looks like it may have worked for him.

[pgyanke]

Speaking of "spoiling", you're spoiling my afternoon. Go talk to yourself...

[hattend]

I asked earlier for a description of Prop 54...guess I found it. Sounds good to me.
=====

OFFICIAL TITLE AND SUMMARY
Proposition 54

CLASSIFICATION BY RACE, ETHNICITY, COLOR, OR NATIONAL ORIGIN.
INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

Amends Constitution to prohibit state and local governments from using race, ethnicity, color, or national origin to classify current or prospective students, contractors or employees in public education, contracting, or employment operations. Does not prohibit classification by sex.

Prohibition also covers persons subject to other operations of government unless Legislature finds compelling state interest, authorizes by two-thirds of each house, and Governor approves.

"Classifying" defined as separating, sorting, or organizing persons or personal data. Exemptions include: medical data; law enforcement descriptions; prisoner and undercover assignments; actions maintaining federal funding.

Summary of Legislative Analyst's Estimate of Net State and Local Government Fiscal Impact: The measure would not result in a significant fiscal impact on state and local governments.

[Weimdog]

Interesting absentee ballot information from Phil Carter -

"The New York Times has an interesting story today on the mess we're likely to see in the next several days concerning absentee ballots for today's gubernatorial recall election. The Times reports that a record 3.2 million Californians have requested absentee ballots, and that just 2 million of those have returned them thus far -- leaving 1.2 million ballots outstanding as of election day."

"Let me add another variable here: military voters. I probably should've written an op-ed about this two months ago when there was time for the ACLU to make these arguments before the Ninth Circuit. If I'm right, thousands of military voters will not have their votes counted in this election. The culprit is the mail system, and specifically the tension between the tight timeline (60 days) of this recall and the relatively slow mail pipeline to deployed soldiers overseas.

Federal law (the "The Uniformed and Overseas Citizen Absentee Voting Act") provides for some mechanisms to assist military personnel overseas with voting, but these mechanisms are all premised on the fact of a regularly scheduled election with a lot of lead time.

The UOCAVA provides for a "back-up" ballot, called the Federal Write In Absentee Ballot ("FWAB"), should a citizen overseas not receive his or her regular ballot from the state or territory. Under the UOCAVA, citizens can only use the FWAB under three, very specific conditions. To be eligible for this ballot, the citizen must: (1) Be located overseas (including APO/FPO addresses); (2) Have applied for a regular ballot early enough so that the request is received by the local election official at least 30 days before the election; and (3) Not have received the requested regular absentee ballot.

In this case, Californians in uniform overseas have not had such lead time. They really have had 60 days, assuming they were plugged into the news and monitoring this situation. It's possible that a Californian deployed overseas might have missed both the 30-day cutoff for requesting an absentee ballot and the 30-day cutoff of requirement (2) above.

There are really two groups of soldiers overseas that are likely to be disenfranchised here:
(1) Reservists deployed from their homes inside California. Thousands of reservists have been mobilized from California and sent to Iraq. These soldiers likely deployed with a mail forwarding order in place, so that their mail would be forwarded by the U.S. Postal Service from their civilian address to their military APO address. In the best of times, the USPS can forward such mail domestically in a few days. In the military, such mail deliveries can take longer. Mail delivery in theater is less frequent (2-3 times per week), and it has to account for variables such as security.

- Best case (and also most unlikely) scenario: the reservist applied for an absentee ballot at the time of deployment, possibly in anticipation of the March 2004 primary. The absentee ballot gets sent to the home address in California, then forwarded to the soldier, who may or may not have time to read up on the issues. He/she then sends it back to California through military mail, which can take 2 weeks or longer to get back to the states.

- Middle case: the reservist deployed with other things on his mind and did not pre-request an absentee ballot. The regular ballot announcements arrive in the mail, get forwarded to him in Iraq, where they arrive after the absentee ballot deadline has already passed. It's too late to request an absentee ballot, and this soldier is precluded from using a Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot under the UOCAVA.

- Worst case (and also quite likely): the reservist wasn't even registered at the time of the election, possibly because he just turned 18 or because he had other things on his mind. He wants to start voting, because he feels a sudden sense of civic engagement while deployed to a combat zone. The soldier learns of the election late because he gets an infrequent news feed through his unit newsletter and First Sergeant. The soldier tries to register to vote, but by the time his registration gets to L.A. County's Registrar-Recorder, he's missed the deadline for the Oct. 7 election.
(2) Active duty soldiers with a home of record in California. There are literally thousands of these soldiers on active duty, and I was one them. For various reasons (such as maintaining residency for future tuition purposes), these soldiers maintain California as their state of legal residence. Most of these soldiers are permanently registered as absentee voters, meaning that their absentee ballots get generated automatically just as an infirm person's ballot would be. However, these soldiers' ballots still have to contend with the military mail system to get to and from the combat zone. And it's unlikely the soldier will have full access to the Los Angeles Times or San Francisco Chronicle to become an informed voter, so the vote may be somewhat diluted by an information deficit.

Most soldiers won't fit any of these hypotheticals, but they'll fall somewhere near the middle case. Legally, it's hard to pin the blame for why their vote won't count.

Certainly, the tight timeline of the election deserves most of the blame, because it's simply too short of a time window for the mail and absentee ballot systems to work properly. The mail service deserves some of the blame too. So do the soldiers, for not pre-requesting absentee ballots.

Unfortunately, the bottom line is this: many of these soldiers' votes won't count. I think that democracy suffers when anyone's vote goes uncounted. But I think it's patently offensive that many of our soldiers serving in combat overseas should lose their democratic voice because of the mechanics of this recall.

One of the strongest arguments for the 26th Amendment was that Americans who were old enough to fight and die for their country ought to have the right to vote. I think the connection between suffrage and service is very real, and that these soldiers are literally earning their right to vote right now with their blood and sweat in Iraq. Our election system has to do better at making their votes count."
posted by Phillip at 11:10 AM

http://www.philcarter.blogspot.com/2003_10_05_philcarter_archive.html#106555023717836064

[concerned about politics]

DUmmie.com comment -

California Voter Perspective Here is what I think is happening today:
1) Heavy voter turnout should benefit no on Recall.
2) I think the right wingers are voting for McClintock in droves.
But I also think they are hedging there bets. Informal canvas in my company suggest that many Mclintock voters knowing there candidate can not win.. are voting AGAINST the Recall because they think Arnold would be worse than Davis finishing out his term. MY guess is that 15% of Mclintock voters are voting no on the recall. That acould be the difference.
3) The important undercurrent. Is that those who have been vocally pro-Arnl;od are now keeping their yaps shut. and those against the recall are being really loud.

Are you McClintock voters voting "No" on recall??? The DUmmies say you are.
They also think their facist PC police working against Arnold have "Silenced" you Arnold supporters.

[Ichneumon]

"Laugh-a while you can, Monkey Boy!" -- Doctor Emilio Lizardo

[Timesink]

I'm sick of this 24 hours of coverage for the GrOPer....is there no other news going on today??? MSNBC has total coverage all day...don't know about fox...this is totally out of control......I want to know what the hell else is going on ....

Amen to this whole thread I can't even watch. Disgusting. We are the laughing stock of any country with real news.

"We want 'news' that won't remind us 24/7 that our entire political ideology is a complete failure! Waaah!"

[veronica]

If McClintock has any class, he would have dropped out when the LA Times smear story hit the streets, just as a protest against the slimeball tactics.

[ambrose]

More like I think the euphoric overconfidence which is prevaling around here is simply misplaced.

[Go Gordon]

I figured out last night my polling place got moved across the street from my favorite doughnut shop, so I'll be early. Interesting way to boost turnout

Must be a republican leaning district and this is just a racist ploy to get cops to be near the polls so they can intimidate minorities from voting. I smell disenfranchisement ;-)

[Ichneumon]

Oops, let's try that again with the picture:

"Laugh-a while you can, Monkey Boy!" -- Doctor Emilio Lizardo

[CatoRenasci]

I tend to agree with you generally on campaign finance, other than on the loans: if you want to lend yourself money, or spend it, why not?

Still, I think Tom's being cozy with the gambling interests is troubling, at the very least. There's too much corruption associated with gambling to make me comfortable with it.

Let's just hope the recall wins, and that Arnold wins. I know you'd prefer Tom, but frankly, he doesn't have a chance. So it's Arnold or Cruz. And, of course that's my fundamental point all along, I suppose: it's more important to throw the bums out, and get someone who'll at least start the clean up in than to insist on the true believer who won't win and will leave the bums in power to loot the state.