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McClintock Can't Win? Do the Math Again
Perspicacity & Paradigms Online ^ | October 1, 2003 | Rand Green

Posted on 10/03/2003 12:48:20 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy

McClintock can’t win? Do the math again!

From Perspicacity & Paradigms Online (www.perspicacityonline.com) Posted Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2003 By Rand Green P&P Editor & Publisher

OVERWHELMINGLY, Republicans who plan on voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the California gubernatorial election on October 7 justify their choice by saying that they would rather see Tom McClintock be governor but they just don’t believe Tom can win.

You hear it over and over again. On talk radio. In letters to the editor. On network interviews. In emails. In conversations around the water fountain at work or on the golf course or at Chamber of Commerce meetings or at church. The sentiment is seemingly ubiquitous. “We’re tired of losing. Sure, Arnold’s a social liberal, but he’s a fiscal conservative, and we’d rather have 75 percent of something than 100 percent of nothing. McClintock can’t win, and if he splits the Republican vote, it will assure a Bustamante victory.”

I do not believe I have heard a single Republican supporter of Mr. Scharzenegger declare that he is the best qualified candidate or the preferred choice; only that he is the most electable. Many Republican leaders, in endorsing Arnold, have said if the balance tipped and it appeared that Tom could win, they would eagerly support him. But that will never happen, they say. “This is, after all, California, and California is a Democratic state. The majority of Californians are social liberals, and even though we wish it were otherwise, a true conservative has no chance of winning. Do the math.”

The “math” they talk about is simple -- or, more accurately, simplistic: A week out from the election, Arnold Schwarzenegger was holding a two to one lead over Tom McClintock in the polls (40 percent to 18 percent), and Tom was trailing Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante. Therefore, they conclude, Tom lacks the support to beat Cruz, and Arnold is the Republican party’s only hope.

You know, ordinarily it’s the liberal media and the liberal Democrats that I frequently suggest need to take a class in remedial math. Now, I have to suggest that the California Republican leadership needs to do the same thing.

I’m not about to get on their case in this article for not voting their convictions, for not standing by their principles. It may well be time to preach to the choir, but I’ll do that in another piece. For the moment, I’d just like to set the record straight on the math.

Ever hear of self-fulfilling prophecy? Yeah. Well, that is exactly what is happening with the California Republican leadership’s support of Schwarzenegger. Convinced that the only kind of Republican that can win state-wide office in California is one who has broad appeal to social liberals, they have nobly sacrificed their own personal preference in the interest of what they deem the greater good.

Rather than throwing their wholehearted support behind a candidate of Tom McClintock’s caliber, integrity and conviction, rather than seizing an opportune moment to explain to Californians that liberalism is a flawed concept and is at the root of the state’s problems, rather than pointing out that the left has misrepresented conservatism and that only a conservative agenda will bring greater prosperity, freedom and opportunity for all, California’s Republican leaders have basically thrown in the towel and acknowledged tacit defeat. Better to settle for a liberal (or a moderate if you insist) with an R after his name than to wind up with nothing.

Not only have the leaders of the California Republican party almost unanimously thrown their support behind Arnold (although nearly one-third of the rank-and-file stand firmly behind Tom), but they have urged -- no, they have pressured Tom’s supporters to hold their noses at the ballot box and vote contrary to the dictates of their conscience. Misery loves company.

If every Republican voter in California who believes that Tom McClintock would be the best choice for governor -- if only he could win -- would vote for Tom McClintock, he would win by a landslide.

If every Republican leader in the state, every conservative organization, and every conservative talk show host who has supported Arnold Schwarzenneger had instead endorsed the candidate they’d really like to see win, if only he could, their influence would have assured a victory for Tom McClintock.

Instead, they are talking themselves blue in the face, sometimes with angry tones in their voices, lambasting McClintock supporters for standing stubbornly by their principles and “splitting the Republican vote.” It is a squandering of energy that would better be invested in extolling the virtues of conservatism and exposing the liberal myth. And it is disingenuous. Here’s why:

The fact is, McClintock supporters are not splitting the Republican vote. If anything, it is the other way around. After all, Tom McClintock was in the race first. But more to the point, if Arnold had not jumped in, who would these Republican leaders and conservative organizations be backing? If they really, honestly believe that Arnold is the only candidate with enough public appeal to win, why did they back the recall in the first place? If they were convinced that Tom McClintock or Darrel Issa or Bill Simon didn’t have a chance against any of the likely Democratic contenders, what did they think to gain by ousting Governor Davis?

Or did they have foreknowledge of a Schwarzenegger candidacy even before the Steroid Wonder had made his decision to run?

Now for the math. Let’s run the numbers.

With Bustamante at 25 percent and sliding, and McClintock at 18 percent and climbing, McClintock is only seven points back from beating Bustamante, and the gap is closing. Schwarzenegger supporters rant about how McClintock needs to drop out to assure a Republican victory, but nobody seems to be asking what would happen if Schwarzenegger pulled out of the race. A CNN poll actually posed that question, but apparently nobody in the new media liked the answer, because it never got reported!

According to the CNN poll, if Schwarzeneger were to drop out of the race, McClintock would beat Bustamante by 56 percent to 37 percent! The idea that Tom McClintock could not win is nonsense. The idea that a principled conservative cannot win in California is absurd. If Tom McClintock is not elected governor on October 7, it will not be because he is unelectable. It will not be because a social and fiscal liberal named Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who calls himself a Republican and who, by pretending to be a social moderate and a fiscal conservative, is pulling off the most successful acting roll of his career -- is the only R who can win. It will be because of self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of party leaders with a “we’re sick and tired of losing” mentality.

Here are some more highly relevant numbers. Senator McClintock has name recognition in California of 96 percent. Over 60 percent of California voters - and not just Republicans -- have a favorable impression of him, and only 20 percent have a negative opinion.

Given that Tom McClintock needs to gain only seven points to close the gap with Lt. Gov. Bustamante, and that the vast majority of those who say they’ll vote for Schwarzenegger would gladly tip to Tom if they thought he could win, it would only take a few key Republican leaders, even at this late date, to break ranks and call for their constituents to support McClintock, and people would quickly see that a McClintock victory is indeed possible. Once that possibility became apparent, Republican voters would run in droves to the other end of the teeter-totter.

They just need a little leadership to make that happen.

Or maybe they don’t. Maybe the voters of California will figure this out for themselves and vote their conscience, notwithstanding the endorsements of party leadership in favor of a candidate who is not their first choice. If that should happen, there are going to be a lot of high-profile Republicans in the state feeling more than a little chagrinned.

But what about this vote-split concern? What if some Arnold supporters switch to Tom but not in large enough numbers to give Tom the victory? Will not that vote splitting assure a Bustamante victory as so many Arnold supporters contend?

Not at all -- not unless, in the next few days, Bustamante makes a huge surge in the polls, which is unlikely as his popularity has been going steadily down, not up.

Again, let’s run the numbers. Clear, straightforward math.

Currently the polls show: Schwarzenegger, 40 percent. Bustamante, 25 percent. McClintock, 18 percent. Now follow me. Forty plus 18 equals 58. Combined, the Republican candidates beat Bustamante by well over two to one.

Suppose McClintock comes within one point of overtaking Bustamante but can’t quite pull over the top. We can assume that any McClintock gains are likely to come from Schwarzenegger voters, not Bustamante voters. So that would put McClintock at 24 percent, Bustamante at 25 percent, and Schwarzenegger at 34 percent, still the victor by a whopping nine point margin.

If McClintock gains eight points, enough to put him ahead of Bustamante by a point, that still leaves Schwarzenegger with 32 percent of the vote and an impressive seven point margin of victory.

Think what a well-deserved embarrassment that would be for the Democrats to have not one but two Republican candidates get more votes than the lieutenant governor.

You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler. So no one who in their heart of hearts would really rather cast a vote for McClintock than for Schwarzenegger needs to worry about being the cause of a Republican defeat if they vote their conscience. Arnold backers should just lay off the guilt trip, because it is without basis.

Maybe what some of those who say a principled conservative can’t win in California are really afraid of is not that McClintock supporters might split the ticket and cause Republicans to lose but that Tom might actually gain enough momentum to win, thus proving their pessimism unfounded. Maybe that’s why they are digging in and turning the turrets on their brethren instead of taking the battle to the foe.

Can Tom McClintock win on October 7? Yes he can. Do the math!

If all voters in California would vote their conscience, their principles, their head and their heart and not allow themselves to be intimidated, the numbers show that Tom McClintock would be California's next governor and the myth that that no principled conservative can win statewide office in the Golden State would be forever dispelled.

As Shakespeare wrote, and as Tom McClintock has recently quoted: “There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life are spent in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

From Perspicacity & Paradigms (www.perspicacityonline.com). Copyright (c) 2003 by Rand Green Communications. Note: You may make coies of this article for free distribution, distribute it by email, or post it to the internet, if you do so in its entirety, complete with all credits and this copyright notice.


TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: dreamon; math; mcclintock; newmath; perspicacity; randgreen; recall
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To: Saundra Duffy
McClintock doesn't sling mud. He is above the fray.

Did he put you up to calling everyone who doesn't agree with you a RINO? Does he condone what you are doing? Are you mocking him by name-calling followed by "Go McClintock" in all your posts?

141 posted on 10/03/2003 4:27:40 PM PDT by Consort
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To: Saundra Duffy
I have been laughing my butt off all day long listening to the various "conservative" commentators doing flips and twists in an effort to bail the Terminator's sorry *SS out of all the crap that is surfacing about him.

Oh, that's alright though. He was a much better choice than Tom McClintock. In a pigs ass.

142 posted on 10/03/2003 4:28:45 PM PDT by fightu4it (conquest by immigration and subversion spells the end of US.)
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To: Saundra Duffy
For me, the prize is not the governorship per se but the solution to this state's fiscal crisis. The question is not who can win. In my mind both can win if one drops out. But what happens then? If McClintock (who mirrors my own philosophy) wins and tries to implement changes (cuts) to solve the crisis the Democraps in the legislature (Burton, et al) will play politics as usual and stonewall all of McClintocks reforms until his term is finished and then proclaim McClintock a failure since we haven't solved our problems. Another Democrap runs and wins....business as usual to the average voter. But if Arnold wins he comes to Sacramento as an outsider with the only creditials that matter...the support of a plurality of the people. And because of his celebrity status he can call a news conference anytime he feels like it and hold the 'craps heels to the public fire and implement the changes necessary to end this fiscal nightmare. He is enough of a fiscal conservative to accomplish this. Who cares what his social views are at this time? He certainly cannot singlehandedly stop abortion, command Federal dollars to pay for illegal services, etc. Plus he can use the 'craps opposition as an excuse for another term or two. And we conservatives must understand that in the absense of a dynamic leader such as Ronald Reagan we will more often than not have to be satisfied with having influence in the party as it's most dependable base and demand our fair share of issue support from the more moderate, and more electable, elements of our party. We were doomed to this role by the Senate Republicans who succomed to liberal chants of "extremist" and caved on impeaching Clinton. Now all they have to do is mention the word "extremist" and they all turn to jelly. Sad but true.
143 posted on 10/03/2003 4:30:28 PM PDT by vigilence
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To: fightu4it
Cursing is the crutch of a conversational cripple.

Please attempt to control yourself. If not for those who post on the board, then JimRob and his board preferences. Thank you.

144 posted on 10/03/2003 4:33:28 PM PDT by mrs tiggywinkle
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To: Saundra Duffy
You get bonus points for tenaciousness, Sandra.

Your efforts here, suffering the slings & arrows, etc. on TM's behalf are much appreciated by many of us and will be remembered regardless of what happens on Tuesday. Thanks!

145 posted on 10/03/2003 4:41:25 PM PDT by skeeter (Fac ut vivas)
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To: skeeter
Yes, 100% for tenaciousness; 5% for salesmanship.

146 posted on 10/03/2003 4:46:41 PM PDT by Consort
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To: skeeter
"suffering the slings & arrows"

Not to mention tossing a few. I also appreciate her zeal but think we're doing Ronaldus Magnus a huge disservice by attacking a fellow Republican and his supporters who also want to help out a state that's been so hurt by the Democrats. Let's all try to remember who the real enemy is - Davis and his cronies.
147 posted on 10/03/2003 4:47:18 PM PDT by mgstarr
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To: mgstarr
Let's all try to remember who the real enemy is - Davis and his cronies.

You'll get no argument from me.

148 posted on 10/03/2003 4:53:46 PM PDT by skeeter (Fac ut vivas)
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To: Saundra Duffy
The hard way, he earned it!


It doesn't appear that the CA voters agree with you on that statement...... I think 'tock thinks he's entitled because he thinks he may have earned it, but in essence he's only doing what he was hired to do. But that's not his to say but rather the electorate's choice of when to say he's earned it and a promotion is due....

149 posted on 10/03/2003 5:07:23 PM PDT by deport (Why does McClintock think he's entitled to the Governor's Office?)
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To: mrs tiggywinkle
"Please attempt to control yourself......"

It's hard maintain control while watching this present bunch of party idiots shoot themselves in the foot, time after time.

I don't think this bunch is even smart enough to figure out who has mounted this campaign against them.

150 posted on 10/03/2003 5:36:27 PM PDT by fightu4it (conquest by immigration and subversion spells the end of US.)
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To: fightu4it
**It's hard maintain control while watching this present bunch of party idiots shoot themselves in the foot, time after time. I don't think this bunch is even smart enough to figure out who has mounted this campaign against them. **

What bunch are you speaking of?

151 posted on 10/03/2003 5:46:25 PM PDT by mrs tiggywinkle
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To: Saundra Duffy
I think you are making a huge mistake by supporting TM
152 posted on 10/03/2003 5:51:39 PM PDT by joyce11111
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To: Saundra Duffy
Sandra, I respect your opinions but I believe you are wrong on this one. In the last two days, Aahnulds' number are even better. The only reason that their aren't exposes on how Tom McClintock foams at the mouth and hits his kids is because he isn't a threat.

The libs know that Aahnuld can win and it would hurt them locally and nationally.

I think Tom will make a great Senator when he faces Boxer and whips her. He will make a great governor, after Aahnuld retires from office.

Sorry to dissapoint, but he is going to win- and win big.

153 posted on 10/03/2003 6:05:37 PM PDT by Nachum
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To: Nachum
...In the last two days, Aahnulds' number are even better.... Sorry to dissapoint, but he is going to win- and win big.

Actually Arnold is already over 50% in the SurveyUSA poll.
154 posted on 10/03/2003 6:07:51 PM PDT by fqued (Arnold, in spite of a "vote for Tom McClintock being a vote for Pia Zadora.")
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To: Saundra Duffy
Thank you so much for posting one of the few rational articles on this deteriorating RINO website. Don't let anyone's nonsense rattle you. McClintock can win, the numbers show it. It's simply because so many people lack the moral courage and independence to vote their conscience instead of what the media and its polls tell them that there is even an argument.

Arnold is a liberal. He is a pro-abortion liberal. He is an anti-gun liberal. He is an anti-family, anti-marriage liberal. He is a pro-illegal alien liberal. He is a pro-big-government, big-spender liberal. (How can anyone pretend otherwise with Arnold pushing socialized after-school day-care? Arnold is going to raise taxes and spend more. His advisers are liberal. Every single economic and moral position he takes is liberal. Can anyone even post one conservative quote from Arnold that he still supports?

Arnold has never demonstrated any ability to be a governor. He has no political experience. He has no leadership experience. Never mind his womanizing, steroid use, starring in semi-porno movies, and pro-Hitler remarks. These are just personal foibles that all of us have.

Who cares whether Arnold or the racist Bustamente wins? They both have identical positions so why not support McClintock? What do you conservatives who say you will vote for Arnold have to lose? Arnold's numbers are going to drop when all this new stuff gets digested. Arnold should quit the race, if he really is a Republican, and let the better candidate win.

155 posted on 10/03/2003 6:11:36 PM PDT by baxter999
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To: Saundra Duffy
You know, the one reason I so detest the Democratic Party is that every one of those Democrat Senators who voted not to remove Bill Clinton from office, put Party above personal morality and ethics.

Are we going to head down that same path? Are we now to the point where we are willing to overlook the same behavior we decried not so long ago, for the sake of the party?

156 posted on 10/03/2003 6:21:01 PM PDT by fightu4it (conquest by immigration and subversion spells the end of US.)
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To: mgstarr
I HAVE NOT ATTACKED SCHWARZENEGGER.

I have given my opinion that he's a liberal and I fully expect that opinion to be verified if he's elected governor.

I have offered a week's worth of daily apologies IF he actually moves the conservative agenda forward enough to distinguish the liberal agenda he advances.
157 posted on 10/03/2003 6:35:14 PM PDT by Maelstrom (To prevent misinterpretation or abuse of the Constitution:The Bill of Rights limits government power)
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To: Saundra Duffy
How we lost...HOW WE LOST IS U AGAIN WERE NOT A TEAM PLAYER...!

Voting Simon in was the mistake all u purist made.....

In life we must work together. Compromise. This selfish attitude in here is getting old and it is exactly what the Rats want.

Arnold will win this thing. Its in our grasp. The left is trying to destroy it in a fit of rage as the sand falls through the hour glass..........and all you extremists are aiding in there mission...!

Repeat after me...GOVERNOR BOOT-YO-MONEY
158 posted on 10/03/2003 6:38:08 PM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: fightu4it
The democrats weren't alone..
...and you know what?

If Arnold were in the Senate at the time, he's already told you he'd have done the same thing those Democratic Senators did (along with just enough Republican Senators)

So cut it out and think things through with us.
159 posted on 10/03/2003 6:38:26 PM PDT by Maelstrom (To prevent misinterpretation or abuse of the Constitution:The Bill of Rights limits government power)
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To: Reagan Man
If the Republican leadership had come out early for TM, that would have guaranteed his loss.
160 posted on 10/03/2003 6:40:34 PM PDT by Hildy (SUCKER: Short-sighted Uncompromising Conservative Kool-Aid-drinking Elitist Republican.)
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