[fqued]

You ought to take a gander at the latest SurveyUSA poll, not Iowa gambling.

In that poll, following the smear, the numbers were:

39% - never vote for Arnold
10% - were going to vote for Arnold, but won't now
12% - were not going to vote for Arnold, but now will
40% - were and still will vote for Arnold

40% + 12% = 52% voting for Arnold. Remember that is a survey of Californians, not a futures bidding market, and it has Arnold winning in a landslide.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Go visit the Iowa Electronic Markets website and read their papers documenting that their election markets are virtually always more accurate than survey polls. In a survey poll one commits nothing. In the IEM, one votes with his pocketbook. The pocketbook trumps nothing.