The Iraqi WMD shell game. Now Hussein has them. Now he doesn't. For the better part of 20 years we were told he had them. We know he did in the '80's, because he used them. Then, he up and decides to invade Kuwait. Golden opportunity to use WMD against the Kuwaitis, the Israelis, and the vastly superior coalition forces. But he doesn't. Why? Might it be that contrary to conventional wisdom, he wasn't afraid of retaliation, but that he didn't have much of a stockpile left?
Enter the UN weapons inspectors after the Gulf War. Again, throughout the '90's, we're told that Hussein is a menace. He has WMD. He's not cooperating. Gotta keep those inspectors rummaging around in Iraq. Yada, yada, yada. Our Congress even passes the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act, making the ouster of Hussein national policy. Bill Clinton signed it and most of the Dems now caterwauling about how "Bush lied" issued hair-raising warnings about Iraq on the Senate floor and voted for it.
In the meantime, a little gravy train called the Oil-for-Food program was enriching a whole bunch of people. None of the players (including Hussein) in the weapons inspection scam wanted to go home and declare Iraq free of WMD, because that would mean the gravy train would come to a screeching halt. So Hussein continued to play the intransigent dictator, Kofi Annan's minions kept rummaging around Iraq, and all the players kept getting rich.
Enter George W. Bush, the "accidental" president who, from the Left's point of view, was dumber than a box of Texas rocks. The unthinkable happens -- a massive terrorist attack on American soil that catapults GWB into the ranks of our most significant presidents ever. GWB takes us into a real shooting war.
Worse, he begins lecturing the UN about its responsibilities, and begins making plans to invade Iraq. Oh, no! That would slam the door on the gravy train for sure. And it would also threaten the exposure of a lot of Euro and UN Leftists who made millions off the suffering of the Iraqi people. Can't have that, now, can we?
So it wouldn't surprise me at all that various schemes were cooked up here and in Europe to (1) provide cover for the crooks, and (2) set GWB up to take the fall for years of corruption about Iraq, its here-today, gone-tomorrow WMD, and the Oil for Food Program.
Now what Patrick Fitzgerald is up to, who knows. I doubt seriously that he's doing anything significant. Like most special prosecutors, once they get started, it's almost impossible to get them to wrap up and come to a conclusion. The history of such SP's is that their investigations take on a life of their own and run for years, often with little or no results to show for the effort and cost.
But the whole Wilson-Plame saga has provided excellent cover for the vastly more serious crimes that were committed re Oil-for-Food and its rationale, the continued UN search for Iraqi WMD.
I'd go with a version of your larger affair scenario. My main difference in detail would be that I think Saddam's Oil-for-Food coconspirators were helping arm him with WMD as well as profiting from Oil-for-Food corruption. But apart from that I agree with your gist, and your bottom line that Oil-for-Food-related crimes (and profits) were most likely the heart of the motive.
FORMER DIPLOMAT TO GIVE VIEWS ON POSSIBLE WAR WITH IRAQ AT UCSB, January 14, 2003
"Our message to Saddam can be simple," he said. "You are going to lose your weapons-of-mass-destruction capability either through inspections or through a sustained cruise-missile assault. If you rebuild them, we will attack again. And if you use weapons of mass destruction or attack another country, we will destroy you and your regime. The decision to live or die then becomes his to make."
"The ultimate lesson of the gulf war may be that when offered the choice, Saddam will sacrifice almost everything before sacrificing his own life or grip on power," Wilson said.
One thing we can't overlook in this regard: Wilson is plugged into a.) the Saudis (Rock Creek Corp, Middle East Institute, etc) and b.) the French (ex-wife, Jacqueline, may have been DGSE).
The French may use him. The Saudis may own him.