California: Last ditch effort to save Davis. Bustamante expected to withdraw

California Public Policy Foundation ^ | Oct 1, 200

[John Jorsett]

Lt Gov. Cruz Bustamante is “highly likely” to drop out of the race to replace Gov. Gray Davis tomorrow barring a last minute change of mind, according to a Sacramento source close to the lieutenant governor’s campaign.

As panic over a looming Republican capture of the governor’s office has spread from the Davis camp through the ranks of Democrat elected officials and donors, Bustamante has been subjected to enormous pressure to withdraw his candidacy. Top level Democrats believe Bustamante now has no hope of overtaking Arnold Schwarzenegger on the candidate portion of the ballot, and that he is, in fact, sinking so fast he could finish third, behind both Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock.

Many Democrats now believe their only chance of retaining the governor’s office is to defeat the recall. They hope Bustamante’s withdrawal will convince enough of the 27 to 30 percent of registered Democrats now supporting the recall to change their minds once they see no chance of replacing an ousted Davis with another Democrat.

CPR Online’s Sacramento source said convincing those Democrats to switch would be “difficult but at least conceivably doable,” in contrast to winning with Bustamante, whose campaign the source described as “absolutely dead in the water and sinking faster then the Titantic.”

The lieutenant governor is said to remain concerned about how withdrawing would affect his future: whether he is damaged more by staying in the race and losing badly next Tuesday, or by withdrawing five days before the election, thereby conceding he is too weak to win.

CPR Online’s source said Bustamante is notoriously slow to make up his mind about tough decisions. He characterized a Bustamante withdrawal as a “nine out of ten” chance, but said the lieutenant governor could change his mind “as he walks to the podium tomorrow.”

[Ronin]

In my first post I am guilty of sloppy thinking. But having thought it through, I still don't see this as a good sign.

I haven't seen the poll you are talking about, but stipulating that it is accurate, it will be interesting to see what happens now. You may be right.

My fear is that if Bustamante gets out of the race the people that were going to vote for him will vote no on the recall. I don't see Bustamante votes going to Arnold. In fact, I see Bustmante protecting his future by doing everything he can to encourage those who supported him to defeat the recall.

So, while this may improve McClintok's chances in that it will syphon voters from Arnold, may lower them in terms of the percentage of votes needed for the recall to succeed.

Or something like that. Right now, it's too hard to predict.

[BonnieJ]

Did you see him on Greta tonight? Boasting about how popular he is, his high positives. 2 months ago 99% of us has never heard of him. Instant celebrity. But if his supporters fall for this ploy, it could be disastrous. No one in this country (on the Republican side) wants a Gov. Bustamante.

[ZDaphne]

I admit I voted for Arnold by absentee already. Mainly because I felt a vote for McClintock would put Busty in the governorship. Now, if Busty drops out and there is a chance for McClintock to win, I may be kicking myself on election day. Who knew? Oh well, anything but a Democrat will make me happy.

[Lancey Howard]

If you think more than a small percentage of voters are going to go vote for a candidate that has withdrawn, it is you who are duped.

I think you may be drastically overestimating the intelligence of the average Democrat. Those worthless mice don't read newspapers or follow the day-to-day of politics. Seen Leno? Ninety-five percent of them couldn't name the Vice President. If they see the name "Bustamante" on the ballot (assuming they can figure out the ballot in the first place) they will vote for him.

[Dog Gone]

I think Gray is throwing Busty under the bus to try to make this look like a right wing power grab.

Bustamante could easily deny this, if it's not true. I guess I'd expect him to do so tomorrow, and blame it on a desperate Davis camp. We'll see soon enough.

[EternalVigilance]

Let's say your numbers are right. I don't agree with them, but for the moment let's say you're right.

STILL, there is no longer ANY justification for a conservative to support Arnold!

[Amerigomag]

Republicans never controlled the outcome of this recall election, and they still won't

You're right.

Taking it a step further Schwarzenegger is a viable alternative for many Democrats if Bustamante withdraws. Schwarzenegger works to clean up the fiscal mess which bothers the Democrats as much as the Republicans and Schwarzenegger won't molest their pet social projects nor their stance on illegal immigration.

[EternalVigilance]

Cruz will get numbers that will be low....much lower than if he had stayed in, by far!

And they will be votes taken from ARNOLD, not Tom....

[Dog Gone]

I didn't say that, and you can't fairly infer that from my comments.

Sheesh.

[FairOpinion]

Yes, I saw McC on Greta.

How do you spell delusion? "McClintock".

I can't understand how he still has some supporters left, who still didn't figure it out.

[socal_parrot]

I just heard that Cruz's lead guy, Richie Ross tried to call Terry McAwful to get some last minute DNC support they couldn't get him on the phone.

Stick a fork in Cruz, whether he wants to be or not, he's done.

[Mulder]

Woo hoo! This is the first time I've seen the NWO accusation in a governor's race. Congrats!

I think I've actually posted it a couple of times before ;-)

Anyway, few things are more New World Orderish than disarming the American people and leaving the border wide open.

[EternalVigilance]

Did you see him on Greta tonight? Boasting about how popular he is, his high positives. 2 months ago 99% of us has never heard of him. Instant celebrity. But if his supporters fall for this ploy, it could be disastrous. No one in this country (on the Republican side) wants a Gov. Bustamante.

Come on. Surely you don't think that by withdrawing Cruz will win??

I'm sorry, but with all due respect, that's nuts!

[MHGinTN]

Is it possible that this 'news' is a ploy to lull many into not voting?... YES! Lest we forget, DEMOCRATS LIE ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY ... they have to because the truth is their mortal enemy after so many years serving up lies, bloody lies.

[Brian Allen]

<< California: Last ditch effort to save Davis. Bustamante expected to withdraw >>

Great.

That should see the RICO-racketeering bastards hoist by their own petards, as most of their absentee criminal-alien-invader "votes" are already mailed!

[Blood of Tyrants]

Then it is up to Arnold to inform the voters tha tBustemonte will still be on the ballot and could still win if the vote is split enough.

[John Jorsett]

Bustamante can say he withdraws, but his name will remain on the ballot.

That's what I was thinking. His official position has been "no on recall, yes on me," so his "withdrawal" would effectively be the status quo. Plus a "withdrawal" would have no basis in law; if Davis is recalled and by some miracle Bustamante had the most votes, does anyone seriously think he'd turn down the job because he "withdrew"?

[GROOVY]

You are right. I can't be the only one who read the recent article that said Davis has done polling and by Busty dropping out he gains 10% on the NO on recall vote.

Obviously the Demos saw those stats, saw that Busty has no chance and told him to drop out or be a spoiler and be ostracized. Busty has little chance to win so he drops out and is rewarded later on by the party. Its not a foolproof plan by a longshot, but statistically is probably their best shot.

I don't think they will get the full 10% and the recall is likely to still pass by a wide margin imho.

[forester]

If I recall correctly, Ventura couldn't get anything accomplished, and declined to seek a second term.

[EternalVigilance]

If this is true it should energize every conservative more than they have ever been energized before to go drag every voter imaginable to vote for Tom.