*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[SteveH]

The third is a minor gaffe that surely doesn't help the "media savvy" argument.

From Schwarzenegger Preps for Recall Debate:

Following the speech, Schwarzenegger criticized Davis' environmental record.

"Gray Davis has just started talking about the environment the last few days," Schwarzenegger said. But he backtracked when reminded of recent legislation signed by the governor, saying, "I'm not aware of all those bills that he has signed the last year."

So the leading Republican candidate for governor went off message after a press conference a few days before the election and immediately sank his credibility.

Gosh, I'll suppose your next point is you'll claim Simon was "media-savvy".

I submit that this is evidence and proof, if proof ever exists, that Arnold at a minimum needs to be kept away from the deep end of the pool in matters gubernatorial.

Even if he does win, once installed, he will be at the mercy of his liberal handlers because he has *no* solid background in politics.

Arnold the new Reagan torchbearer? Arnold the conservative? Obligatory sheesh.

[tallhappy]

I didn't say the whole thing was fictitious

It sounded like you were. But, OK, fair enough. I agree, the term California Crunch should have been added (and I should have pointed that out).

And FairOpinion, though, did claim it is totally made up.

[onyx]

I prefer Arnold to McWampum for many reasons, but this one alone is enough for me: Arnold doesn't take money from Indian tribes. McWampum has!

[tallhappy]

Who is the Lincoln Club of Orange County?

Some sort of conservative/Republican club that is considered to be very influential.

Earlier they endorsed Schwarzenegger which was his first big victory in intra-party squabbling.

[pogo101]

I believe he has demonstrated a strong tendency to stick his foot in his mouth

I might agree if you said "moderate tendency."

But I was reacting principally to your use of the term "hyperbole." Plainly your point wasn't that Arnold has no media savvy but, rather, that his "savviness" has been overstated, hasn't been put to the test (for isn't it fair to say that the press Arnold's dealt with before this venture was all softball media, such as on movie-promo press junkets?), and is pockmarked with some significant missteps. I particularly agree as to the "crazies" comment, which has no silver lining.

[JCEccles]

Similar complaints were made about Lincoln. His detractors said he was homely and hopelessly backwoods, that his voice was reedy and annoying, and that all he had demonstrated in his political career to that point was that he knew how to lose to the handsome and charismatic Stephen A. Douglas over and over again.

You don't know that McClintock would be a disaster any more than you know that Schwarzenegger will be the second coming of Ronald Reagan. Charisma is not the same thing as star power and political leadership and effectiveness (Calvin Cooldige, for example) can arise from very ordinary-appearing and plain-spoken men who rise on their principles to master the most difficult challenges.

[tallhappy]

This is a complete falsehood. Who are these buffoons?

They are a major Republican group in CA and were the first to endorse Schwarzenegger.

They are Schwarzenegger supporters.

Yet they understand the importance of accurate tracking polls.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

One fact that has been demonstrated in polls is that McClintock gets only about 30% of the CA Conservative vote..... Now why is that?

That's a great question, although not for the reasons you think. McClintock actually scores better than the 3rd place for Bustamante among, gasp, Hispanics, because of their (Catholic) Conservative roots. (Its tight, but your guy is first among them)Hispancis are good, principled people, and they don't like Bustamente anymore than Whites liked David Duke.

He does better among them than White "conservatives". The poll that shows 30% for McClintock is an indictment on people just like you, who are carpet bombing him with "unelectable" so much his own base is running in fear.

And the great irony is that you don't even see yourselves as the problem.

[PhiKapMom]

Very good point! What do 70% of conservatives in CA see that they don't like in McC?

Could it be --

McC is not a team player or McC takes money from Indian gambling interest -- went from $50,000 originally stated to over $650,000 when facts were checked or McC teamed with Cruz against Arnold or McC said he would not be a spoiler and would drop out if it meant Cruz would win before he got such a big ego or the fact that he is from the porn capital of America but since he lives in Sacramento thanks to CA taxpayers, he doesn't have to worry about his district or ...

[tallhappy]

Interesting. The polls are incredibly variable, but consistent in the variability. SurveyUSA has always had Schwarzenegger with the highest numbers of all the polls. Bustamante and McCLintock's numbers are pretty consistent in all the polls. But Schwarzenegger's swing wildly.

[tallhappy]

Hugh is the one supporting Arnold.

I know. Thus my review of his error prone history.

[Dave S]

For someone dumb enough to live in the Peoples Republic and celebrate that fact I cant take you too seriously. Makes me think you have a contrarian viewpoint and you couldnt survive without Davis or Bustamante to blame. Easier to attack them than it is to pass your budget. Again I ask, what has Tom ever accomplished besides saying no? Gotcha. Has he banned abortion? No but he pledged...LOL. Has he gotten rid of Californias restrictive gun laws, no but he pledged. Did he vote to prevent Gay marriage (whoops I mean domestic partner) legislation? No but he did make a bunch of radio interviews that day and took the opportunity to bad mouth Arnold for being pro-gay. Has he eliminated the influence of special interests in California politics? Ooops. No, he "borrowed" money from the Indian Casino folks. Okay Tom. You sound like a real principled guy. Oopps, the one principle is "Win or make sure Arnold doesnt."

[JCEccles]

Very good point! What do 70% of conservatives in CA see that they don't like in McC?

What poll establishes that 70 percent of CA conservatives dislike McClintock?

[PhiKapMom]

Looks like we are starting to find out why 70% of conservatives won't support McC! We can add one more for the "principled" conservative McC:

McClintock voting for domestic partners to have the same property tax advantages as married couples is much more troublesome. SCA 9. McClintock and the gay and lesbian coalition were together on the bill.


47 posted on 09/24/2003 12:37 PM CDT by RGSpincich

[deport]

Well don't tell me the CA Conservatives are shallow in their support........ Is that what you're saying? If they were so strong in support of and believed in McClintock it wouldn't matter what anyone said or who the other candidate was. They'd be there with their support. They aren't.

No there is something else that is keeping them from supporting McClintock, imo.

[NYC Republican]

You are now the 3rd phoney Conservative I have on the run on today. Tis a good day. :-)

You've pointed out two of the three... Do I rate on your exclusive list as the 3rd phoney conservative? If not, please... pick me. PICK ME!!!

[tallhappy]

They endorsed Schwarzenegger some time ago and called for McClintock to pull out of the race -- quite some time ago, it doesn't tally with the claim of the results of this poll, which was never mentioned anywhere else, nor was any source given in this post.

They do their own polling, not for public release. They want accurate objective polling data.

It's interesting the matra here has gone from Tom Can't Win to Tom would only have a 50-50 chance.

[Dave S]

You are now the 3rd phoney Conservative I have on the run on today. Tis a good day. :-)

I cant tell you what you are or they will ban me.

[EggsAckley]

AMEN!

[pogo101]

I submit that this is evidence and proof, if proof ever exists, that Arnold at a minimum needs to be kept away from the deep end of the pool in matters gubernatorial.

Your submission is insufficient. Arnold made a gaffe. Although certainly related, "mistake proof" and "media savvy" are different concepts. I'll readily concede that McClintock has made fewer (reported) errors of this nature.

But you'd do well to remember that I'm not one of those saying that Arnold is super-media-savvy (in the sense needed for politics, anyway; maybe for movie promotion, although I suppose there is some carryover). Rather, I responded to someone (you?) who asserted that it was "hyperbole" to say that "no [recall] candidate is more media savvy." It isn't hyperbole. Hyperbole is saying that "it was hot enough to fry an egg on the sidewalk." What that poster should have said is, "I disagree; why, just look at these mistakes he's made ..."

Arnold the new Reagan torchbearer? Arnold the conservative? Obligatory sheesh.

Sheesh over that way. I haven't made any such claims.