Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[wimpycat]

Not much chance of people in the Carolinas being complacent over hurricanes. Hugo, Fran, Floyd and a couple of lesser ones (Bertha comes to mind) have all made landfall in the Carolinas the past few years.

I grew up on the coast and with the possible exception of Diana in the early 80's (which made a U-turn so my grandparents in Southport (30 miles south of Wilmington) got it twice), there hadn't been a major hurricane making landfall in my lifetime, until Hugo, which was in '89, I believe. There were some Nor'easters that were worse than the hurricanes that came by here. Then came Fran in 1996...and then Floyd in 1999. Everybody who could remember Hazel back in the 50's stopped talking about Hazel after Fran and Floyd.

Nope, we're not complacent in the Carolinas.

[Howlin]

Honestly, on that site I just linked, the graphic changed within an hour; I finally decided to start saving them to see the difference!

[Dog Gone]

I still remember the fun we had last year when you told us that hurricane season is over. I've never seen anyone take the pounding that you got over that tongue-in-cheek remark.

[MizSterious]

"In the Northeast, the last truly devastating hurricane was back in 1938 and not many are still around that remember that one."

When we talk to people in the northeast, we're always hearing that hurricanes are nothing to worry about--many people think nor'easters are worse. I hope they understand, this time, that this is not always the case. Big hurricanes are much worse than nor'easters. I've been through both. Give me a nor'easter any time.

[Neets]

I am in the south eastern part of the state, very close to the NY/CT border.

[kayak]

One important word of caution ..... please take heed!

IF any of you happen to have the eye go directly over you, do NOT be deceived and think it is all over. The worst is yet to come.

As a hurricane approaches, the winds gradually build in intensity.

..... If the eye goes over you, then suddenly, literally in an instant, the wind and rain cease ..... very abruptly. It becomes dead calm and still.

But when the eye passes over, the full fury of the storm resumes just as abruptly ..... no gradual increase this time. The winds can literally go from 0 to 120+ in a split second!!!!!

We had the eye of one of the minor hurricanes I experienced go directly over our house at night. My mother let us go outside very briefly. There were stars overhead in a crystal clear sky! But we only stayed out a literal minute. And it was really frightening when the winds resumed at full strength, even though we were safely back inside at the time.

You have no way of knowing how long it will take for the eye to pass over so DON'T take any chances!!!

[oceanview]

weather channel mentioned (without providing supporting information) that "this event may be speeding up a little" in last hours segment. I think that tends to bring it in a little further south, since the faster it goes, the less chance the trough over the central US has a chance to move south and east which would tend to pull it more north.

[Howlin]

Neets, nobody sounds dumb. Ask anybody in Raleigh. Nobody ever thought a hurricane could do as much destruction as Fran did. And we are 100 miles inland.

Do not mess around; get cash and gas NOW. Move everything that could possibly fly inside. A regular can opener.

We've all been through it; and it's quite different from a nor'esters! It'll scare the crap out of you.

[Moose4]

When I moved down here to SC in 1997, people were still talking about Hugo (and I live 125 miles off the coast). So when Floyd threatened, you bet everybody took it seriously. Hugo opened a lot of eyes.

Judging from where that storm is, I'll guarantee you right now that every surfer dude for 400 miles is waxing his board and gassing his car and heading for Folly Beach, SC in the next couple of days.

}:-)4

[alnick]

That means that people need to prepare their property as best they can, and then evacuate. There are no heroes who ride out a direct hit from a storm of this magnitude. Just fools.

Excellent advice. There are always those who insist on staying behind in order to protect their property from the hurricane. I can't imagine what they think they can do to protect their property once the storm hits.

[GOPcapitalist]

There appears to be some sort of front crossing the midwest right now. Does anyone know if it is moving and what's behind it?

That one that came through a few weeks ago passed off shore, caught fabian, and guided it safely up the atlantic hitting nobody except for Bermuda. I guess they don't think that could happen again.

[weatherFrEaK]

That site shows the potential tracks according to the latest forecasting models. It changes about as much as the models do, but the models are generally tending towards a middle East Coast threat, for now anyways.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"I still remember the fun we had last year when you told us that hurricane season is over. I've never seen anyone take the pounding that you got over that tongue-in-cheek remark."

Awww...c'mon...I wasn't that harsh. :)

[Sub-Driver]

I'm in Gloucester County and I agree this will not be good. Remember Floyd in 1999? Flood city....

[Dog]

I bookmarked that site......thanks.

[Neets]

Kassie,

I found this neat thing in Howlin's Link

VA Hurricaine Preparedness

[Dog]

I'm in Salem County near the Delaware Mem. bridge.

[fjsva]

We closed & boarded our family beach house in Nags Head yesterday. I was surprised at how many people were comming down to the Outer Banks for vacation.

Lots of MD,NJ,NY cars with bikes and stuff. Will be a short week for them.

[jonsie]

I do. I was in Charlotte huddle with my three children in the center of our house. We were without electricity for 13 days.

[Moose4]

I drove down I-85 from Richmond to Greenville, SC the morning that Fran passed through. It was only a tropical storm (barely) when it brushed Richmond but I was scared ****less anyhow. I heard later that a tornado went right by my apartment complex, which might've explained the one sudden, sharp jolt that the building took over and above the 40 mph winds.

I can't even imagine riding out the real thing.

So...since when did the I-40 corridor between Raleigh and Wilmington become the Weather Disaster Capital of the Universe, anyway? Snowstorms, icestorms, floods, hurricanes...think it's God's way of telling all the Yankees to go home? :)

}:-)4