Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Howlin]

Depends on where the path is.......LOL.

Why?

[NautiNurse]

[pgkdan]

Raleigh got pretty well soaked from Floyd didn't it? I sat up all night thru that b*stard. Lost all the good trees in my yard...but the poor folks to the west of me in Franklin and Emporia and all ove NE NC just got inundated with flooding. I read something a little while ago that there were people still living in trailers waiting for their homes to be repaired and their property to given clean bills of health.

[Howlin]

Also official 4-day track forecast errors average about 275 miles.

Interesting.

[PJ-Comix]

the center of hurricane isabel was located near latitude 24.5 north...

Since Miami is 25.47 North, it is only one degree south of Miami which means by this time tomorrow, Isabel will already be NORTH of South Florida. It ain't hitting us.

[Howlin]

I lived in Greensboro during Floyd, but I remember it well because my husband is a readjuster and had to go to Rocky Mount; he couldn't find food or a place to stay, so he had to come back to Raleigh at night; he was as depressed as I've ever seen him. He couldn't even talk about it.

[oceanview]

that has been the working theory most of the day, into the chesepeake along the VA coast. the 11PM data doesn't appear to offer much of a change, the model tracks have not been updated yet.

[PJ-Comix]

Where have you been all day?

The weather is great in South Florida. Why should I stay cooped up on a Sunday?

[oceanview]

thats a big one. what was the surge for Hugo?

[Dan from Michigan]

The second trough will cause an acceleration toward the north-northwest with Isabel moving over the Great Lakes and becoming extratropical by day 5.

Not good....especially if it merges with another storm from the NW.

[NautiNurse]

Hugo storm surge was 20ft.

[radiohead]

Thanks for your thoughts. It's probably better that my sister comes down for awhile. DC seems fairly inland to me, tho we can certainly get a lot of rain and debris. I can't see my parents going anywhere unless the National Guard made them leave.

They had quite a time w/gutters, trees, roof, etc. after the bad east coast winter. They only recently got the house back together again. Looks like they may have some more damage if the storm comes close.

[Orion78]

Yeah, I have been watching Isabel on the GFS model since 4 days ago. I am pretty jittery because it shows the eye going through central PA. Luckily if that is the case, I will be on the western side of the eye, which will make it a little less severe. Also, by the time it reaches PA, depending on where it hits land, it should be greatly weakened.

As far as I've noticed, though, out of all the different weather models, GFS seems to be the most accurate. I use it regularly to figure out what might be headed my way. Hope every thing goes ok for you. Down there in NJ you guys are right in the crosshairs.

[U S Army EOD]

What they mean is the waves are going to be 15 ft tomorrow. What they mean by surge is that the water will be 30 feet deep and the waves will be on top of that. You will basically almost have a WALL of water 30 feet high coming at you. When it finally retreats, it will drag everything that will come loose back into the ocean. The surge can last an hour or two or much longer. Everything inland that is not 30 ft. above sea level will be covered. This is what happens in countries such a Bangladesh that have a very gentle slope away from the sea. That is why they have as many as 100,000 people drown in their equivalant of hurricanes.

[CobaltBlue]

I just called my 71-year-old dad, who is from Biloxi, to ask if there is thunder and lightning during hurricanes, and he says no, not really.

On the other hand, he says that hurricanes can last for a very long time if they are moving slow.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

we cut down all of the trees on our property years ago. i hate trees.

You and Mr. T! :-)

[Sam Cree]

Andrew caused a surge of 18 ft in Dade County, in an area where the topography of the bottom was not even conducive to a very large surge.

[don-o]

This was posted either earlier on this or another Izzie thread.

Very cool!

hurricanecity.com

[Gabz]

we lost a 25 foot evergreen during Gloria, and that made us get rid of everything.

My next door neighbor's Weeping Willow ( don't know how tall it was, but taller than a 2 story house) came down in my yard during Gloria. Destroyed the fence - but what ticked me off even more (and the rest of the neighborhood) was that the roots yanked up the cable and no one had cable TV for a couple of days.

When the neighbor and my ex where topping it, so to cut it up, they removed so much weight that the dang thing righted itsself.

The stupid tree is still there.

None of the trees around us are on our property, so I can do nothing but pray.

[CobaltBlue]

Well, I wasn't planning on cooking, period, during the storm. Peanut butter and jelly sandwiches are nourishment enough, why take a chance with an open flame?