Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[groanup]

"You've obviously never actually been through a hurricane or hurricane evacuation"

A friend evacuated Daytona Beach a few years ago for Floyd? I think. He went up 95 to 16. It was brutal. He skipped I-10 because he already heard it was a parking lot. GA state patrol made 16 a one-way heading west. He spent 18 hours making a 7 hour trip to Atlanta. People were using the bathroom on the side of the road (I mean really using the bathroom) and the Patrol wouldn't let motorist get off on connecting highways. He has since told me that if they call for another evac he will stay put. They'll have to take me out feet first if they want me.

[PleaseNoMore]

Ok. I am going to ask an absurd question. Hyperthetically ( I know it's hypo but I am a bit anxious here about this thing thus the hyper )...IF this storm came in at Wilmington at its current force and on a NW track, how would a person that is 103 miles to the NW of Wilmington fare with regards to wind speed? I guess what I am curious about is how long the decelleration of wind would take or how quick it would weaken. Can that even be determined? Am I right that once the ey hits land that the storm quickly loses strength?

[Howlin]

Exactly. And for some reasons, those are facts that a lot of us find out "after" the fact. I had gas heat and A/C and didn't have a detector. My son didn't have one either at his house in Holly Springs.

Believe me, we ALL have them now.

And I'd like to apologize for being so BLUNT in my above post; if I offended anyone, I am sorry. But, as I said, it hits home with me.

[oceanview]

that is exactly the problem, where are they (we) evacuating to? and how do you focus on only evacuating people nearest the coast, while explaining to others that they should stay put. its chaos.

[Sub-Driver]

More grim news...........note the buoy data.....

TO PARAPHRASE THAT SAYING ABOUT REAL ESTATE...THE THREE MOST
IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE TROPICS CURRENTLY ARE ISABEL..ISABEL...AND
ISABEL. VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS PERSISTED FOR DAYS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DAY 4 TO 5 HURRICANE GUIDANCE FROM NHC NOW BRINGS
THE SYSTEM ASHORE SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A CATEGORY
III HURRICANE. THE IMPACT WHERE IT COMES ASHORE IS POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM WAVEWATCH MODEL OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS FOR
BUOY 44009 SE OF CAPE MAY HAS HAD PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS VARIED FROM 36
TO 52(!) FEET WITH HURRICANE PASSAGE. HIGHEST OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHT
EVER AT THIS BUOY HAS BEEN 25 FEET WITH THE DECEMBER 1992 STORM.

[PleaseNoMore]

I am so sorry about your son. I have propane heat and I have a wood burning stove. Do I need a CO detector?

[nicholle]

Hi Oceanview -

Check out this link for the inland wind estimates. The Hurricane is currently moving at 13mph, so you'll have to use 15 as the estimate:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

[Amelia]

When we evacuated for Floyd we went backroads and the traffic wasn't nearly as bad as it was on I-16, etc, but it did take us over 2 hours for a stretch that normally takes 15 minutes.

[PleaseNoMore]

Ok one more ?? Which side of the hurricane is the side that packs the most dangerous winds and tornadic activity. I can't remember.

[oceanview]

see post 440 for more info about that buoy.

[Howlin]

rw, the people on this forum have been talking about this storm since BEFORE September 7, 2003; the news is JUST getting out now. A lot of people won't believe it's going to come ashore and the others will believe it's "just like a nor'easter.


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/977658/posts



If this hurricane is going to hit Thursday morning, evacuations need to start first thing in the morning.

[Sub-Driver]

Dog, here's more..........

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-150345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
551 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

...A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN...

AS MAJOR HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW
AND UPDATE YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN.

PART OF YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN SHOULD BE PREPARING IN CASE A
HURRICANE THREATENS YOUR AREA. SOME ACTIVITIES WHICH YOU STILL
HAVE TIME TO COMPLETE INCLUDE KNOWING THE HURRICANE RISKS IN YOUR
AREA SUCH AS WHETHER YOU LIVE IN A POTENTIAL FLOOD ZONE...LEARNING
SAFE ROUTES INLAND FROM COASTAL AREAS...FINDING OUT WHERE OFFICIAL
SHELTERS ARE LOCATED...TRIMMING TREES AND SHRUBBERY...CLEARING LOOSE
AND CLOGGED RAIN SPOUTS AND GUTTERS...AND DETERMINING WHERE TO MOVE
YOUR BOAT IN AN EMERGENCY.

ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARTS OF YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN IS THE
PREPARATION OF A DISASTER SUPPLIES KIT. THIS KIT SHOULD INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING MATERIALS...A THREE DAY SUPPLY OF WATER WITH ONE GALLON
PER PERSON PER DAY...FOOD THAT WILL NOT SPOIL...ONE CHANGE OF
CLOTHING AND SHOES PER PERSON...PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES...ONE BLANKET
OR SLEEPING BAG PER PERSON...A FIRST AID KIT...A BATTERY POWERED
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND A PORTABLE RADIO...EMERGENCY TOOLS...A
FLASHLIGHT WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...AN EXTRA SET OF CAR KEYS...AND ANY
SPECIAL ITEMS FOR INFANT...ELDERLY OR DISABLED FAMILY MEMBERS.

IF YOU HAVE A SECOND RESIDENCE NEAR THE COAST...WE RECOMMEND YOU TAKE
THE OPPORTUNITY EARLY THIS WEEK TO INSURE THAT LOOSE OBJECTS ARE PACKED
AWAY...AND YOUR RESIDENCE IS SECURE.

STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF HURRICANE
ISABEL. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ADDITIONAL ACTION IF A HURRICANE WATCH IS
ISSUED FOR THE AREA. A WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. REMEMBER THAT STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN EXTEND WELL INLAND WITH A
MAJOR HURRICANE.

$$

MORE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI CHECK OUT THE MENU SELECTION ENTITLED
PREPAREDNESS ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE.

AND PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING INTERNET SOURCES FOR ADDITIONAL HURRICANE
POTENTIAL INFORMATION AND PREPAREDNESS ISSUES...

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

PENNSYLVANIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://PEMA.STATE.PA.US

MARYLAND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://WWW.MEMA.STATE.MD.US

NEW JERSEY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT:
HTTP://WWW.STATE.NJ.US/NJOEM

DELAWARE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://WWW.STATE.DE.US/DEMA

FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.FEMA.GOV/HAZARDS/HURRICANES

AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.RED CROSS.ORG

$$

EBERWINE/MIKETTA

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ017&warncounty=njc015&local_place1=Gloucester+County&product1=SPECIAL+WEATHER+STATEMENT

[Howlin]

Front NW quadrant.

[PleaseNoMore]

Ok. I am just gonna say it. When you guys and gals post these messages would you perty perty please use laymen's terms after the scientific one??

[groanup]

"...how do you focus on only evacuating people nearest the coast, while explaining to others that they should stay put. its chaos."

You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Leave early and the storm misses you. Leave late and you can't leave. Don't leave and make out a will or open a bottle of whisky.

[oceanview]

the section east of the eye, northeast to be more specific.

[Peach]

Howin - you have done us all a service with your advice about buying a CO detector. After talking with you about this matter a few years ago, we bought one for our home and one for the home of all our relatives.

[SC Swamp Fox]

I am in Florence, SC about 100 miles NW of where Hugo made landfall. We had pine trees down and a couple of tornados that took off a few roofs and knocked down power lines. Moderate wind damage and a lot of rain.

It was about as bad as a very sever thunderstorm, it just lasted a lot longer. If Isabel were to stay south and approached SC, I will evacuate to my sister's which is about another 80 miles west.

The folks from the Charleston area where evacuated to Florence. Hugo chased them up I-95.

[PleaseNoMore]

That just ain't even laughable. :o( I am 103 miles NW of Wilmington. I is getting a little scurred. This rinky dink county probobly has no emergency plans as we don't even have an Emergency coordinator anymore. He resigned.

[2nd amendment mama]

Yes! Yes! and YES!!!