Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Vinnie]

KT = Knot = 1.15 mph

[Ryzaroo]

I am in Annapolis...we are keeping a really close eye on this baby. MIL is in Cape May and sister lives down in Southern MD on the water...

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

One mistake people use is saying 'knots per hour'. That's like saying 'ATM machine'. Knots per hour is valid when describing a rate of increase, but not a rate of speed. This isn't directed at you, but at anyone who may not realize this distinction.

[Husker24]

Thanks, was doing the math as you spoke, and was gonna post it, but you beat me to it.

[djf]

We could start talking kilometers per hour...

[Husker24]

I think it would be easier for us to just convert the Knots over to Miles per Hour.

[U S Army EOD]

Great town, I use to live over in East Port in the Severn House Apts. Hope you folks are going to be okay, but it doesn't look good as far as flooding.

[Gabz]

not everyone can evacuate, and I guess its hard to really explain to people that not everyone should. on long island where I am for example, the "evacuation" of the south shore likely involves a move 15-20 miles north. there really isn't anyplace else to go on long island. but someone on long island who is already 15-20 miles from the coast, should be staying put.

Same thing on Delmarva,, especially southern MD and VA parts. Lots of barrier islands with only one way on and off. I'm 15 miles from the coast - those people need to move more than I do.

[djf]

Actually, it has slowed a bit, they were dropping transponders into it yesterday and measuring wind speeds near the surface between 190-205 MPH

[Ryzaroo]

Yes it is a really nice town. We just moved here from Catonsville- 2 weeks ago- and walla what is headed our way? It figures:(.

[U S Army EOD]

The reason for Knots is that a nautical mile represents one minute of angle of logitude at the equator. It is a measurement that is actually based on something where a statue mile is just something we made up along with most of our measurements. Of course a Knot is moving one nautical mile per hour and is used in navgation.

[AnAmericanMother]

Approximately 3 times per century or so, a powerful hurricane hits the Carolina coast head on, punches far inland over the mountains, and dumps a foot or two of rain in 24 hours in WNC, causing major, major flooding (mountain valleys make excellent natural funnels).

People in the Sylva/Dillsboro area are still talking about the 1940 Jackson County flood. The Tuckasegee River basically washed most of the county downstream.

It's a nice paddling river but scary when it gets to high water.

[NautiNurse]

Another suggestion--freeze juice/milk cartons or plastic bottles full of water (leaving enough head space for expansion). These larger blocks of ice will last longer than your ice cubes. Allow extra time to accomplish this.

[AnAmericanMother]

Always lots of 2 liter Coke bottles available for this purpose . . . and if you have an auxiliary freezer you can usually get quite a number of them stashed away.

[2nd amendment mama]

Conversion table for
knots to miles per hour   

KTS to MPH

5	Knots	=	5.8	MPH
10	Knots	=	11.5	MPH
15	Knots	=	17.3	MPH
20	Knots	=	23.0	MPH
25	Knots	=	28.8	MPH
30	Knots	=	34.6	MPH
35	Knots	=	40.3	MPH
40	Knots	=	46.1	MPH
45	Knots	=	51.8	MPH
50	Knots	=	57.6	MPH
55	Knots	=	63.4	MPH
60	Knots	=	69.1	MPH
65	Knots	=	74.9	MPH
70	Knots	=	80.6	MPH
75	Knots	=	86.4	MPH
80	Knots	=	92.2	MPH
85	Knots	=	97.9	MPH
90	Knots	=	103.7	MPH
95	Knots	=	109.4	MPH
100	Knots	=	115.2	MPH
105	Knots	=	121.0	MPH
110	Knots	=	126.7	MPH
115	Knots	=	132.5	MPH
120	Knots	=	138.2	MPH
125	Knots	=	144.0	MPH
130	Knots	=	149.8	MPH
135	Knots	=	155.5	MPH
140	Knots	=	161.3	MPH
145	Knots	=	167.0	MPH
150	Knots	=	172.8	MPH

Beaufort Wind Scale

Windspeed in MPH	Description - Visible Condition
0	Calm smoke rises vertically
1 - 4	Light air direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes
4 - 7	Light breeze wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary wind vane moved by wind
8 - 12	Gentle breeze leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag
13 - 18	Moderate breeze raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved
19 - 24	Fresh breeze small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelets form on inland water
25 - 31	Strong breeze large branches in motion; telephone wires whistle; umbrellas used with difficulty
32 - 38	Moderate gale whole trees in motion; inconvenience in walking against wind
39 - 46	Fresh gale breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress
47 - 54	Strong gale slight structural damage occurs; chimney pots and slates removed
55 - 63	Whole gale trees uprooted; considerable structural damage occurs
64 - 72	Storm very rarely experienced; accompanied by widespread damage
73+	Hurricane devastation occurs

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

It is a measurement that is actually based on something where a statue mile is just something we made up along with most of our measurements.

Well, in truth, minutes of longitude are 'made up' as well. There's nothing saying that longitudinal lines have to be spaced as they are. They could just as well be based on the metric system, so that there would be 100 of them, or 1000. But I'm just picking nits. I believe the Bureau of Weights and Measures (if I have the name right) actually has metal bars kept under climatically controlled conditions that define common lengths like the foot and meter.

[Domestic Church]

That thing looks like a giant Peter Max Ameoba sucking the guts out of the east coast.

[Howlin]

I cannot stress enough the safety issues.

9. Do you have a generator? If you do, follow instructions TO THE LETTER!

A generator will kill you - Carbon Monoxide Poisoning.

For the love of God and the ones you care about, tell EVERYBODY this.

[djf]

I would think, based on it's size, even if the eye makes landfall 100 miles from wherever you are, widespread devastation could occur. This is one very powerful storm.

[Cosmo]

the blue "NOGAPS" line seems to be just a little west of charlottesville Va. What exactly does that line mean to me?

thanks

feel the gin