Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[judicial meanz]

If it follows that path, its coming right over the roof of my house.

I live about 35-40 miles from the Chesapeake-James River estuary

[myprecious]

And don't forget to check your prescriptions including contact lenses. Many areas may be without power for a LONG time and pharmacies will be shut down.

[wimpycat]

My parents still live in Jacksonville, NC, and they plan to pack up the cat and head to my brother's house in Robeson County if the need arises.

[Howlin]

Look at 123.

If they do that, I may have to drive over there to take a look at all that traffic going one way!

[oceanview]

68 degree water just north of hatteras all the way north according to the buoy reports.

[Dog Gone]

My suggestion right now for anybody within 50 miles of the coast from SC up to NJ is to go ahead and get motel reservations at least 100 miles or more inland.

Good advice. And they should do it today. Reservations won't be available by Tuesday, that's for sure.

Try to get the ones without a non-refundable deposit in case you're clear of the danger zone. But riding this one out in the path of the storm is an IQ test which no Freeper should flunk.

[U S Army EOD]

It basically starts swinging east past North Carolina and over to Europe. The Gulf Stream is what keeps Europe as warm as it gets. The problem right off Hatteras is everything that makes up for disaster at sea is right there. Deep water becoming shallow, wind blowing one way and a strong current going the other, very warm and cold currents mixing (I have heard of a research ship having over 10/15 degrees temperature from one end of a 110 ft ship to the other) and the strong winds blowing toward the shores. Everything you need for a shipwreck.

[GOPcapitalist]

When on the coast in a hurricane area, I always try to look and see how many buildings there are over a one hundred and fifty to two hundred years old. In most cases there aren't any although there can be some remains of them.

You are correct. That list normally includes the lighthouses and little more. Galveston actually has several century old survivors of various storms though - the granite and brick mansions practically all date to pre-1900. They are all about a story shorter now than they were when built though. They flooded to 2 or more floors in the 1900 "Great Storm" and after it engineers raised the island with a seawall. So what used to be the first floors are now basements.

[CobaltBlue]

One of my grandmothers had a restaurant in Biloxi right by the Back Bay Bridge that was ripped up during Camille (she was on the south side). She refused to evacuate because her mother was very old and frail, and there had never been any real problem on the south side of the bay before, but the storm surge flooded everybody out so the police evacuated everybody in a boat.

My sister was there, said that a gas line was broken and there was gas leaking, and the power lines were down, and when the wind would whip the power line through the gas it would catch on fire and then the wind would blow it out, so there was a constant "ah-whoom! ah-whoom!" sound from the roar of the gas catching on fire, exploding, and then being blown out. They spent the rest of the storm in a Red Cross shelter, but there wasn't any real damage to the property, not like on the north side of the bay or the coast, where the storm surge did all the damage.

One man tried to ride out the storm in his boat, and got washed into the water, and spent the entire storm in the Back Bay, but he was wearing a life jacket and survived!

A lot of people died.

[dep]

gulf stream makes it all the way up to rhode island, where there is a phenomenon called "the meander" that is a giant eddy. it is visible in pictures gound here: http://newton.gso.uri.edu/thermo6/avhrrGoes/html_dir/thumb_page1.html.

dep

[Moose4]

Gotta love Tidewater, a place so screwed up that they actually have two different highways labeled Interstate 64 West, separated by 25 miles!

}:-)4

[Husker24]

I would think 68 degree water would weaken it pretty well unless in came in from the SE pretty fast.

[CobaltBlue]

Yankees and Democrats use I-45 South to Galveston.

Funny. ;O)

[myprecious]

It just seems like Izzy is so big and strong, it would take a lot to change her direction. ALL of the previous models have been wrong. It is like turning a battleship around. She is just not going to turn on a dime.

[dep]

this is a very useful noaa site -- gives latest sat animation.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html

[DollyCali]

Hi..

found you via ATRW thread. I am a newbie to FR.. and I love weather too.. I have about 100 sites bookmarked. And I love ontario.. Shaw festival; Shakespear festival; biking in Niagara; NOTL; wineries... wow.

Next time I get there lets get together okay? I have relatives in Dunkirk NY that I am long overdue in visiting.. could continue on.

I love Franks's Tomato pie in Toronto. Sunday brunch is the best. Decor is neat.. Maybe we could meet there & get acquainted. (I have references ..... *G* ).. the FReepers I have met so far are nothing short of first class.. in every sense of the word.

Birds of a feather.

NOW MS. Isabel...... prayers to those in the path......be prepared & DO NOT PANIC

[deport]

He said Knoxville.

---

LOL........ Yep when they get one of the majors coming in and it's an area that hasn't had evacuations or many practice runs, the roads get blocked and there isn't any movement..... Even the police groups along the way may not be coordinated to keep traffic flowing through the towns, lights, etc....

[NautiNurse]

Howlin, you really need enclosed shoes rather than flip flops for storms. The floods bring out all sorts of nasty creatures, from snakes to fire ants--not to mention raw sewage.

[oceanview]

i'm not sure how much time it will spend over that water however given the current track:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Southeast.shtml

[Howlin]

I just have this feeling that she is going to get sucked into that void between the high right up north and the low coming from the midwest.