Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[wimpycat]

There are Bert's Surf Shops all up and down the Carolina coasts; Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Topsail, Emerald Isle. Howlin's talking about the one in Atlantic Beach. When I was in junior highschool, the local must-have fashion accessory was one of those cheapo yellow caps from Bert's Surf Shop in Atlantic Beach...along with Op shorts and shirts (Op--Ocean Pacific).

[NautiNurse]

Here's a cool animated graphic for the storm through 72 hours. Click on pic to enlarge and animate. It gives a good indication of coastal effects throughout.

[Howlin]

BTW, I wonder when the evacuations will start. Do you know the timeline?

[Rebelbase]

Unless you've seen it you really can't understand how long it takes water to drain away once an area down on the coast has been flooded. There is simply no place for the water to go so it just hangs around for days and days.

[alrea]

Before Hugo, some people evacuated inland to Charlotte and were hit worse there than the coast where they came from.

[CathyRyan]

OK :) Just wondering. I am headed that way to help family pack if it looks like it is headed their way (will know by tomorrow if they want heip). Bert's in NMB is just up a little ways from Atlantic Beach. That's why I asked.

[Rebelbase]

I have'nt seen anything offical about evacuations yet, but based on the storm hitting Thurs. night, I would think they would give the evac. order on Tueday. The traffic jams will be horrible.

[Howlin]

In case you're dying to know what the "must-have" is now, it's these:

[Dog Gone]

I don't understand what that graphic depicts with the colors. I thought it was wind speed, but winds don't generally stop at the coastline.

[GOPcapitalist]

Looks like 1 or 2 just knicked it among the major historical storms that have followed this route. I can't tell the dates exactly because the lines are blurred:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_climo.gif

[U S Army EOD]

My suggestion right now for anybody within 50 miles of the coast from SC up to NJ is to go ahead and get motel reservations at least 100 miles or more inland. This hurricane could do unpresidented damage where ever it hits. When on the coast in a hurricane area, I always try to look and see how many buildings there are over a one hundred and fifty to two hundred years old. In most cases there aren't any although there can be some remains of them. You can guess what the reason is for that.

This is one to watch. It is also a good time for people inland to prepare to help out the ones who must evacuate. I live in Lincolnton, GA and plan to talk to the mayor and the local police on any plans we might do to help. I suggest people in other towns within 100 miles of the coast do the same thing.

[Howlin]

When Floyd was coming, a friend of mine who is a court reporter, too, had a deposition in Raleigh. I told her that I would just call them and tell them I wasn't coming, period, but she went.

When she got there, of course they had canceled it. She left downtown Raleigh on Wade Avenue at 12:30 and got to Greensboro at 8:30 PM that night.

She said that she saw a state patrolman on the side of the road and stopped to ask him where the traffic cleared up, thinking she might get off 40 and try to go backroads.

He said Knoxville.

[wimpycat]

I'm pretty sure NC now has a plan in place to convert the eastbound lanes of I-40 to westbound lanes from Wilmington up until somewhere before Raleigh (maybe Benson, where it crosses I-95). They may have done that for Floyd; I don't remember.

I remember before Floyd, Gov. Hodges in South Carolina waiting until the last minute to convert the interstate around Charleston to all westbound lanes--after people had been stuck in traffic for 2 days, and then the storm missed Charleston, and made landfall around Wilmington.

[dep]

here come de hurricane -- grab your shower shoes!

dep

[Husker24]

Does the Gulf Stream go clear up to New Jersy, or are the waters colder up there, i would think that if the hurricane moved that far North, that it would weaken some, but they dont seem to be saying so.

[Howlin]

Hurry.

[Howlin]

See 241.

[wimpycat]

I had a pair of those in the 80's, too. Those flip-flops are a retro-fashion item.

[CobaltBlue]

Cool picture! We were in Baton Rouge during Betsy, which ripped up a huge live oak in the front yard and put it through the roof into my bedroom. Luckily we were all sleeping on mattresses in the center hall, away from all the windows.

Forgot that bit of advice, stay away from windows! When the low pressure goes by it can cause them to implode and get glass everywhere. Even if you can't board up your windows, you can duct tape them putting the duct tape directly onto the glass or tape cardboard to the inside of the windows, which will keep the glass from going everywhere.

And don't use candles or gas during the storm, otherwise the wind can blow the flames and start a fire. In fact, if you have propane or natural gas you probably should cut it off completely.

[Amelia]

Yes, I started to go to Florence SC - my sister who lives on Hilton Head did go to Florence. Her house on Hilton Head was fine, but they had to use chainsaws to get the cars out of the driveway in Florence - all the trees in the yard were down.