Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
Alger Willis Fish Camp
Portsmouth Island
Needless to say, my Friday trip to Portsmouth has been cancelled.
The Potomac River is already kinda high, with all the rain we've had lately.
Yesterday we had a crab feast at Tim's in Cherry Hill, VA - might have been the last crab feast of the year if the storm hits as they are predicting.
Anybody care to recommend another good crab shack in the DC region? I could probably do one more crab feast before the hurricane. ;^)
Good advice.
Prayer heavenward <><
Anyone who is curious what it's like can stand up in the passenger seat of a car driving about 120 mph. Be sure to have someone throwing buckets of water at you while you're doing this.
Of course, throwing branches and pieces of sheet metal at you will make the experience even more realistic.
You can borrow our guest room out here in earthquake country.
Yeah. They peaked at somewhere in the 12 ft range last week with Fabian and Henri and dropped off a little in between. Now they are headed back up over 8 and seem to be rising as this next one moves in.
If I lived on the South Shore, I would be making reservations today.
Reservations for Denver!!
I agree with that, given the current weather patterns. And that will be true whether it's moving west or northwest.
That's a huge problem in the coastal areas. They do need a long lead time to get everyone out, but on the other hand, people get really perturbed when they are told to evacuate (as we were for Hugo, Floyd, etc.) and then the storm takes a last-minute turn and misses.
IIRC, Hugo was expected to make landfall around Savannah until the 4 or 5 pm report - at that point it had made a slight northward shift, so ended up coming in just above Charleston instead, about midnight.
The authorities are really in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't position here - if they wait until they are sure where it's going, not everyone will have time to get out. On the other hand, when they tell people to leave and the storm ends up missing, it's very expensive for those who evacuated (and there were those who actually died evacuating from Floyd who'd have been fine at home) and some people get angry.
Important detail-- the car has to be a convertible.
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