Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[oceanview]

I wonder when they will start the evacuations? It seems like they need alot of lead time given the population density of the area likely to be hit.

[CobaltBlue]

hopefully the folks further inland will prepare, too

I lived in Baton Rouge and New Orleans from 1952-1988, saw many a hurricane. The worst damage will be on the coast from the surge of water the hurricane will push before it.

Camille, also a Category 5, had something like 20 ft surges - that means that the water level was 20 ft higher than normal - destroyed thousands of buildings along the coast. Everybody on the Eastern Shore should consider evacuating, especially in places where you are on a barrier island like Ocean City - the entire city could be covered in water.

This probably applies to people on the Chesapeake, as well, depending on how the storm goes. One of my grandmothers in North Biloxi had her house flattened into matchsticks when Camille blew a gigantic gas storage tank onto shore and rolled it around on her house like a rolling pin. Thank God she had evacuated.

Camille ripped up sections of the highway along the Mississippi Gulf Coast that were 10-20 long and as deep as highways will go - what is that, three feet? Just ripped them up and tossed them around like they were children's play blocks. It ripped out the centers of two bridges going across the Back Bay.

Do a google search for Hurricane Camille, if you know anybody who is in the path, because a Category 5 hurricane is like nothing else on earth. Tell them to buy their plywood early before the stores run out, board up their windows, secure the premises, collect the pets, and leave.

We now live in Fairfax, VA - not worred about water as we are on a hill, but am worried about wind, and loss of power. But we already stocked up on water, batteries and candles - and duct tape! - due to concerns about terrorism.

Hurricane Camille Image Gallery

[Right_in_Virginia]

Thank you!

I'm thinking I'll be heading for an "undisclosed location" later this week

But, I'll bring my recharged laptop ; D

[Howlin]

Quite a path, eh?

Have you seen that site before, or know anything about it? It's in Lexington, Virginia.

I think it has some interesting graphics and links.

[meg70]

Crimeny, the area under watch goes to Detroit!

[Diddle E. Squat]

They stay behind to protect against looters.

[abner]

Thanks for the link.

[kinghorse]

The Long Island Express. That wouldn't be good.

[WVNan]

Looks like flood-prone West Virginia is going to be in for it. Drat, we have a picnic/campout scheduled for next Sat/Sun.

[oceanview]

Bush needs to mobilize FEMA immediately tomorrow, in conjunction with the governors of the states likely to be affected. He can't risk what was done to his father after Andrew, 20 minutes after the eye hit, the media had local officials (Dems) on the air complaining that nothing was being done (while doing nothing themselves of course).

[deport]

Here's the lastest updated "Evacuation Routes" from the Houston Area........

---

Harris County Texas Emergency Management Team announces the City of Houston Hurricane Evacuation Routes today, as follows:

• Hispanics use I-10 West to San Antonio.
• Cajuns use I-10 East to Lafayette.
• Rednecks use 59 North to East Texas.
• Republicans fly Continental to Washington, D.C.
• Yankees and Democrats use I-45 South to Galveston.
• Longhorns use US 290 West to Austin.
• Aggies use 610 Loop.

Disclaimer: There are some who will receive this message, and not understand. If you have questions, ask some of the other folks on 610.

Thanks for your cooperation,

Mayor Lee Brown

[abner]

The ground here is already saturated. I am fairly close to the Brandywine River and if it floods, it will take the bridge out.

[Axenolith]

http://sherpaguides.com/virginia/mountains/sidebars/nelson_county_flood.html

(Nelson Co. during Camille)

[Severa]

*waves* Hi neighbor! *L* I'm over here in NAS Oceana housing. Got any ideas on how to get out before the inevitable traffic jams hit the tunnels?

[Howlin]

This baby is huge

"We're gonna need a bigger boat."

[Jackie222]

Do your research on the 1938 hurricane of Sept 21.

I just watched that on the Weather Channel. We live in central VA and have been soaked all summer. The tree roots are not all that strong.

[GOPcapitalist]

I haven't spent much time near the ocean, but I thought it quite frightening when we went to Ocean City for a weekend and saw signs that said, 'Hurricane evacuation route' and we were on a road that was a tiny little sandbar.

Did you happen to see some of those waves that were crashing into the shore? I went out and surfed them at about 7 feet but last I heard they had gone up to 12 or 13 feet by midweek! The buoy readings have been holding steady above the 7-8 foot range since before last weekend and it seems to be going up from there. Those barrier islands and seashores didn't look too promising either - virtually no protection except for a few dunes if that. Streets and buildings go right up to the beachline and that could be a disaster in itself.

[Howlin]

Ha!

[ZAKJAN]

Well Gang, thanks for all the great info....I will be following the updates especially close as I am 10 miles Inland from Atlantic City (the real South Jersey)

YIKES..

Of course i'll watch inbetween batting down the hatches...
However, If this thing hits , my husband was reading on fema that in a category 5 hurricane, most buildings are destroyed. Have to head for the hills with our tent...west bound!!

Jan

[Howlin]

http://virginiadot.org/comtravel/hurricane-evac-hro.asp