Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Dog Gone]

Honestly, on that site I just linked, the graphic changed within an hour; I finally decided to start saving them to see the difference!

Those maps change every time the model forecasts have a scheduled programming run. The NWS guys study them to see which model has been the most accurate in tracking the storm so far, introduce a little of their own bias, and try to form a compromise projection.

The models themselves get pretty wacky at times, and the trick is deciding which ones to discard, because they only rarely agree.

[wimpycat]

It's very hard to measure this sort of thing, because there are so many variables; namely a couple of high-pressure systems. It's impossible to measure it 100% accurately, especially this far out in time.

[Tuxedo]

When did they upgrade Andrew to a 5? Wasn't aware of that... Andrew though was pretty small in size, but pretty intense. Camille and the 1935 one were monsters. Both packing winds sustained at ~200 MPH.... nasty. I live up around Cleveland, so we will likely get some rain. When Fran hit, that thing got up to Lake Erie and parked itself there for several days. It was weird... the rain actually smelled like sea water... hard to explain.

[Neets]

Thanks for that comment MIZ.

[Dog Gone]

You pounded Sam like you were a Canadian and he was a baby seal. Admit it!

[oceanview]

just before it crossed onto the land in Florida and destroyed the national weather service station I believe.

[Dog Gone]

When did they upgrade Andrew to a 5?

Believe it or not, it was just last year.

[Howlin]

That is a cold front coming from the west; it will be a battle between that cold front and the warm high over the northeast.

If the cold front winds, Isabel may go further out to sea.

If the warm front wins and drops down, Isabel will be sucked into the coast somewhere between Georgia and who knows where, most likely NC.

Right now, the warm front is stronger than the cold front.

[Dog Gone]

Hurricane Andrew Upgraded to Category 5

[Howlin]

but the models are generally tending towards a middle East Coast threat, for now anyways.

Yep, it's "tightening up."

[GOPcapitalist]

There have only been two Cat 5 storms to hit the USA, the Labor Day Storm of 1935 (FL Keys) and Camille

I believe Andrew was category 5 when it hit Florida. It is also practically a sure bet that the "great storm" of 1900 in Galveston was a category 5, but they didn't have the sophisticated scientific instruments to measure back then. Some estimate it was a category 4 but there is no sure way of telling. The storm surge was one of the worst on records and suggests that it was.

[Howlin]

Now, I cannot vouch for that site; pay attention to other people here who know more than I do. I'm just passing on stuff I've learned on hurricane thread after hurricane thread.

[sarcasm]

My house is on a big hill, but my office is at the bottom of a big hill.

Where are the gnomes?

[Mo1]

Thanks for the link Howlin

This baby is huge

[abner]

Where are the gnomes?

Where ever they want to be. Silly question... LOL!

[AGreatPer]

I just did some calculations based on your picture on #45.

Based on the current speed, and that can change drastically, this would hit Hatteras Inlet - Outer Banks about about 2 PM, Friday the 19th. Not good. High tide is about 3 PM. For general info, low tide on the 19th is 9:30 pm and high tide for the 20th is 3:15 am.

High tides in that area raise the sea lever over two feet. Coupled with a major swell from the storm......this is real dangerous.

But it is way too early to be exact.

[JOHANNES801]

The ground is saturated for sure in PA,rained damned near every day since early sping.1972 all over.

[dep]

What will the economic impact be? Not good.

now would for sure be a good time to unload any stock you have in casualty insurance companies.

dep

[Right_in_Virginia]

Either it catches land there, or it's heading straight to DC.

Has DC ever had a direct hit?

This is a "need to know" question ;-)

[Moose4]

Wow. She looks like a Life Saver in that shot, look at the size of the eye.

}:-)4