Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[mikegi]

Yep, its definitely taken a big hit in organization. The dry slot has penetrated the eye wall (the yellow band spiraling in from N through NW with the blue entering the eye). I'd say this storm was a goner if it wasn't for the newly formed dark red band with black center to the SSW of the eye. That could wrap around and reform the eye wall.

[ForOurFuture]

BTW, I should probably start posting disclaimers - "I am only a fake expert - please consult the real thing."

No need. You do work for the government, after all.

They live off RT 16 about 5 miles west of 404. The Choptank is in within easy walking distance, though it's downhill all the way. Others live in West Denton, Market St. I believe. BTW, this is way off topic, but what are your latest news and views on Colburn's candidacy.

[Orion78]

Well I'll take that as good news and head to bed. See you guys tommorow. Maybe I'll wake up and Isabel will have bit the dust. Goodnight All.

[Centurion2000]

A really oddball thought but has anyone ever considered using a nuclear weapon (10 MT or so) in an attempt to deflect or even disrupt one of these monsters ?

You would think that using a nuke on it would disrupt the eye enough to pull it into a different direction or maybe make an outflow jet push it.

Considering that this may be an extremely deadly storm I'd say it might be worth a shot.

[Heatseeker]

Actually I don't work for the government - just do web sites for them. :)

I'm on Franklin St, one block away from Market. That is Denton proper BTW, West Denton was a little hamlet just west of the old bridge into town - it's pretty much gone now, just a few commercial buildings there now.

As for Colburn, well I am on the county central committee so I am supposed to be neutral, and I worked for Rich on his first run for state senate in 1994. But, well, ah, let me put it this way - I look forward to Colburn continuing to do a great job as state senator for the 37th district. :)

[ForOurFuture]

But, well, ah, let me put it this way - I look forward to Colburn continuing to do a great job as state senator for the 37th district. :)

Gotcha.

[rmlew]

In the Northeast, the last truly devastating hurricane was back in 1938 and not many are still around that remember that one.
The Long Island Express of September 21, 1938? It caused around 600 deaths and caused massive flooding in Long Island and Rhode Island. According to local talk, homes from the North shore ended up in Providence.

If Isabel hits Long Island as a Catagory 4 or 5, the effects would be devastating. http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/storm_surge_maps.html

A category 4 hurricane inundates the entire towns of: Amityville, Lindenhurst, Babylon, West Islip, East Islip, Bayshore, Gilgo Beach, Cedar Beach, Great South Beach, Fair Harbor, Cherry Grove, Cupsogue, Westhampton Beach, Watermill Beach, Wainscott Beach, Plum Island, Gardiner's Island, Orient, Shelter Island (except for a few high points), Greenport, North Haven, Amagansett Beach, Napeague Beach, Montauk, Woodmere, Valley Stream, Linbrook, Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Freeport, Merrick, Wantagh, Lido Beach, Jones Beach, and Tobay Beach.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index.html

[Heatseeker]

Reading through that link of yours to the "Long Island Express", I saw it discussed the ability of strong storms to actually change the geography of a coastal area, by opening or closing inlets.

This is exactly what created "The Inlet", south of Dewey Beach DE. And if I remember correctly, The Inlet was created by a mere Nor'easter, not a strong hurricane.

Think what Isabel could do. Hope the map-makers are ready for some extra work. :)

[rmlew]

We have many of the same variables. We are pretty well saturated. The storm will hit withing a week of the equinox and a full moon. Finally there are other storms in the area.
New York does not need this, D@MN IT!

[rmlew]

Is there tracking information for the storm now directly off North Carolina?
It seems to me that Isabel will track just east of this storm due to shifting high pressure over the US. If that storm hits the Chesapeake, I imagine that Isabel will hit New Jersey.
At any rate, the ground will already be saturated. Flooding will be bad.

[Heatseeker]

We've got the same problem - a summer of rain (for once!) has left the ground saturated - nowhere for all that water to go.

To paraphrase the old song, "Isabel, don't go away mad, just go away." :)

[jobedo]

The economic impact in Charleston after Hugo was unbelievable. Everything that year boomed afterwards. Car sales, housing, furniture sales, etc, with everything that had to be replaced. It's depressing losing most of your stuff, but generally we replace it with nicer stuff. The people that get slammed are the ones without insurance, but hey--here comes HUD. What is most devastating is the intial shock of losing your personal things. My only advise to those up the cost is to take your photos and items that can not be replaced.

[rmlew]

Anyone want to short some insurance companies?

[Heatseeker]

Anyone want to short some insurance companies?

LOL! But I'll call my broker this morning and make sure I don't hold any large positions in them.

BTW, way up the thread, someone mention being named after a hurricane. My wife's family legend has it that she was named after Hurricane Carol.

[Timesink]

A really oddball thought but has anyone ever considered using a nuclear weapon (10 MT or so) in an attempt to deflect or even disrupt one of these monsters ? You would think that using a nuke on it would disrupt the eye enough to pull it into a different direction or maybe make an outflow jet push it.

You'd think that, but it wouldn't. Isabel would eat it for breakfast. All you'd end up with is a radioactive hurricane.

There's been some discussion of this in various Isabel threads over the last few days, and why it wouldn't work.

[libtoken]

Unfortunately, Charleston is not quite out of the woods yet according to the latest all caps from NHC...


WTNT23 KNHC 150835

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003

0900Z MON SEP 15 2003



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W AT 15/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

64 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

12 FT SEAS..525NE 150SE 150SW 525NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W AT 15/0900Z

AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 68.7W



FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.



FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 69.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z



FORECASTER BEVEN
REPORTED WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT...AS ARE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE

ESTIMATES. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 130 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY...AND THE STORM COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS.



WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...THE SAME DIRECTION AS EARLIER. WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE

EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF

ISABEL...AND WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS

OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO

TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE

NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST. ALL

DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING

ISABEL TO THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 72-96 HR. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST

AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A

LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTS

FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.



ISABEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN A WARM-WATER LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...AND THUS FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL

CONTRACTION CYCLES ARE LIKELY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE

WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED

WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES...AND THUS MAY EXPERIENCE

SOME SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...AND IF

THAT VERIFIES ISABEL COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...SO THE INTENSITY

FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. IT

SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COASTAL SHELF WATER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST IS RATHER COLD...AND ANY TRACK EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THAT

WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE OVER THAT WATER WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE MORE

WEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.



FORECASTER BEVEN



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.8N 69.0W 130 KT

12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 130 KT

24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W 130 KT

36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W 125 KT

48HR VT 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W 120 KT

72HR VT 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT

96HR VT 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W 60 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL


WTNT73 KNHC 150835

SPFAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003



PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION

PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS



AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST



CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES

OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU SEP 18 2003



LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E



26.5N 71.0W 52 X X X 52 WILMINGTON NC X X X 12 12

27.9N 71.9W 24 6 X X 30 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 14 14

29.2N 72.6W 2 18 2 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 14 14

JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 9 9

SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5

CHARLESTON SC X X X 8 8 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2

MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 10 10



COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT

A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE

FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE

C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED

D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU

E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT



FORECASTER BEVEN

[Howlin]

It is NOT turning.

[Heatseeker]

If you look at the track map in the new thread, it's shifted west - you guys on the western shore, look out!

[rwfromkansas]

That's my point. I don't get much time to prepare when a twister rips apart the house. You folks do...

[Howlin]

And the further west it goes, the further south it will hit, right????