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Unfortunately, Charleston is not quite out of the woods yet according to the latest all caps from NHC...

WTNT23 KNHC 150835

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003

0900Z MON SEP 15 2003

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W AT 15/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

64 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

12 FT SEAS..525NE 150SE 150SW 525NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W AT 15/0900Z

AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
REPORTED WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT...AS ARE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE

ESTIMATES. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 130 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY...AND THE STORM COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...THE SAME DIRECTION AS EARLIER. WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE

EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF

ISABEL...AND WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS

OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO

TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE

NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST. ALL

DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING

ISABEL TO THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 72-96 HR. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST

AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A

LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTS

FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

ISABEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN A WARM-WATER LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...AND THUS FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL

CONTRACTION CYCLES ARE LIKELY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE

WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED

WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES...AND THUS MAY EXPERIENCE

SOME SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...AND IF

THAT VERIFIES ISABEL COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...SO THE INTENSITY

FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. IT

SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COASTAL SHELF WATER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST IS RATHER COLD...AND ANY TRACK EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THAT

WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE OVER THAT WATER WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE MORE

WEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.8N 69.0W 130 KT

12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 130 KT

24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W 130 KT

36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W 125 KT

48HR VT 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W 120 KT

72HR VT 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT

96HR VT 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W 60 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL

WTNT73 KNHC 150835

SPFAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION

PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES

OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU SEP 18 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

26.5N 71.0W 52 X X X 52 WILMINGTON NC X X X 12 12

27.9N 71.9W 24 6 X X 30 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 14 14

29.2N 72.6W 2 18 2 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 14 14

JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 9 9

SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5

CHARLESTON SC X X X 8 8 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2

MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 10 10

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT

A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE

FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE

C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED

D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU

E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN