To: Diddle E. Squat
The economic impact in Charleston after Hugo was unbelievable. Everything that year boomed afterwards. Car sales, housing, furniture sales, etc, with everything that had to be replaced. It's depressing losing most of your stuff, but generally we replace it with nicer stuff. The people that get slammed are the ones without insurance, but hey--here comes HUD. What is most devastating is the intial shock of losing your personal things. My only advise to those up the cost is to take your photos and items that can not be replaced.
To: jobedo
Unfortunately, Charleston is not quite out of the woods yet according to the latest all caps from NHC...
WTNT23 KNHC 150835
TCMAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
0900Z MON SEP 15 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..525NE 150SE 150SW 525NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 68.7W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 69.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
REPORTED WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT...AS ARE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 130 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...AND THE STORM COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...THE SAME DIRECTION AS EARLIER. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF
ISABEL...AND WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST. ALL
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING
ISABEL TO THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 72-96 HR. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST
AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A
LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTS
FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.
ISABEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN A WARM-WATER LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...AND THUS FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL
CONTRACTION CYCLES ARE LIKELY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES...AND THUS MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...AND IF
THAT VERIFIES ISABEL COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...SO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COASTAL SHELF WATER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST IS RATHER COLD...AND ANY TRACK EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THAT
WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE OVER THAT WATER WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE MORE
WEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.8N 69.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 130 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 71.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.9N 71.9W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 29.2N 72.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 40.0N 78.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0600Z 48.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
WTNT73 KNHC 150835
SPFAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU SEP 18 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.5N 71.0W 52 X X X 52 WILMINGTON NC X X X 12 12
27.9N 71.9W 24 6 X X 30 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 14 14
29.2N 72.6W 2 18 2 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 14 14
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 9 9
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5
CHARLESTON SC X X X 8 8 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 10 10
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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