Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[Moose4]

Well, Camille in 1969 killed 113 people a thousand miles after she made landfall in Mississippi. Parts of Central Virginia got hit by 28" of rain in eight hours in the middle of the night. It was a freak accident of weather that the storm intensified; before that, she had just moved on up the eastern slope of the Appalachians without dropping a whole lot of rain. This looks different because the Chesapeake is big enough that you might get a sort of inland storm surge off the Bay.

That track looks ugly. REAL ugly. It takes it right over the Outer Banks and three heavily populated areas--Norfolk/Virginia Beach, Washington, and Baltimore--when it still might have hurricane-strength winds. Not to mention what that storm surge will do in the confines of the Chesapeake. Yikes.

}:-)4

[U S Army EOD]

I rode out huricane force winds (Force 12 according to the BBC) 200 miles north of Cape Finnestere in the Bay of Biscay. But I was in a 36' sailboat. My mast was approximately 50' feet off the waterline and we had waves cresting about 3/4 the height of the mast. My wind speed indicator was pegged at 60K for 8 hours and the winds were much higher than that. At one time it actually blew the tops off of the waves and blew the ocean almost flat. We turned over and put the mast underwater three times that night but the boat righted itself. I learned the true meaning to terror that night.

[Vinnie]

That made the hair on the back of my neck stand.

I had a 25' sailboat and was caught in a few squalls, knocked down a few times so I can picture your situation.
Very scary.

[Amelia]

Current trendline has it doing a direct hit on DC

That's what I told my brother (just south of DC) I thought would happen yesterday.

Of course, if it fails to shift northward a bit, I'm still in the target zone myself.

[Gabz]

the storm surge along that eastern facing shoreline of VA on the bay is going to be very bad if that black line track holds.

Methinks you are correct. And I live less than 15 miles inland..

But maybe my luck will hold - Prepare for the worst and get zip. Barely prepare and get nailed. (the latter happened to me this past winter with the blizzard)

[Gabz]

DelMarVa is toast - dunked toast at that - if the models are anywhere near correct.

[abner]

My house may be toast too if it follows that track...

[djf]

I remember that. The water was flowing over the spillway of the dam on the Genesee river in the Letchworth gorge. Water backed up for 18 miles up the gorge. Coupla roads washed out too.

[mewzilla]

It was bad. We're a lot better off here now, thanks to the Tioga-Hammond Dam project that was completed a few years after the '72 flood. But I feel for anyone who should be in Izzy's way.

[djf]

I live in the PNW now, where being wet is a way of life. In fact, mostly all it does is coldly and slowly sweat on you. We have the occasional ground shaking, but if Rainier goes, all bets are off!

[SC Swamp Fox]

Looks like I'm headed back to the store today...

Hit the store and stock up on things, but if I were where you are I would prepare to head west....and don't wait too long. There are only a few routes out of the Tidewater area and you don't want to suffer through a hurricane in your car with your children.

[SC Swamp Fox]

I was on the USS Saratoga (CV-60) out of Mayport, Florida. We left port to avoid a hurricane back in the early eighties (I can't remember which one) and skirted the edges of the storm. It was a rough ride, even on a carrier.

[Ditter]

My husband rode thru a hurricane in the Gulf in about 1959-60 on a 125 ft Coast Guard Cutter. It fizzled when it came ashore but 100 miles out it was awful. It was a rescue mission & he has a few tales to tell. He was 1 of about 4-5 crew members who did NOT get seasick. Even the Captain was sick. The funniest was the cook was sick & the crew that was still standing had to take the keys to the cooler away from him so they could eat. lol

[libtoken]

Time once again for the All Caps show ...

WTNT23 KNHC 141426

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003

1500Z SUN SEP 14 2003



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 66.3W AT 14/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB

EYE DIAMETER 40 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.

64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

50 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

34 KT.......175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 275SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 66.3W AT 14/1500Z

AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 65.8W



FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.2N 67.9W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.2N 69.6W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 70.6W

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

64 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

34 KT...185NE 185SE 185SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.2N 71.6W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

34 KT...185NE 185SE 185SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.0N 73.2W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 225SE 175SW 200NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 34.5N 75.5W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.0N 77.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 66.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z



FORECASTER STEWART


WTNT43 KNHC 141459

TCDAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003



SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ISABEL HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST

6 HOURS OR SO. EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE -70C AND THE

THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE COME IN WITH A CONSENSUS INTENSITY

ESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. THE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT AND

CIRCULAR...ALBEIT WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE 40 NMI DIAMETER. THE

INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 135 KT SINCE THE

EYE HAS BECOME EMBEDDED DIRECTLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DEEP

CONVECTION. SUCH PERFECT SYMMETRY OFTENTIMES INDICATES A CYCLONE

STRONGER THAN SATELLITE THE ESTIMATES...WHICH WAS THE CASE

YESTERDAY. RECON WILL IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE

THIS AFTERNOON.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SATELLITE FIX

POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK

AND THE LATEST 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOW STRONGLY

CONVERGENT ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE WAS A SLIGHT

WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE IS NOW MUCH LESS

DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT

AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST

COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE

EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH

COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL

MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL

FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND

STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH

SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA.

LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH

CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND

MORE LIKELY.



ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3

DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND

REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96

HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL

REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB

WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS

INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE

MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER

BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.



FORECASTER STEWART

[oceanview]

a sobering forecast.

the WC just casually mentioned (I hate when they do that) that "this event might be speeding up a little". I take it that means they see more of an acceleration then previously thought. They didn't offer any explanation, but I think if it speeds up, it hits further south because it allows less time for that central trough to move south and east.

so much for jim cantore's remark last night about it going out to sea. Let's see where the weather channel sets up their mobile broadcast locations for this one.

[oceanview]

I see they are posting a strike probability map for the east coast now:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_strike.html

I don't know how to embed the graphic, but thats the link.

[SC Swamp Fox]

[oceanview]

thank you. is there some "how to" page here that describes how to do that?

[djf]

Local news just reported that too, current speed ~ 12MPH