Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[Cosmo]

Thanks for the good cheer. One can only hope. IF the wind isn't to bad, the Tent should hold up.

[Timesink]

When is Dave on? I want drunk weather!

[Bogey78O]

Well here comes overtime and possible per diem.

[Bogey78O]

Maybe it'll break the panhandle and cruise along I-10.

[AntiGuv]

You're quite welcome. The two aren't especially similar, though, as hurricanes go. The track for Isabel is much further north and with a current due west heading, as opposed to a mostly NNW heading for Andrew up to this stage. Also, Andrew was just a tropical storm until it was due north of the Dominican Republic, hit category 4 over the Bahama Islands, and category 5 just upon landfall in Florida.

[AntiGuv]

In that map, the point where you see the position markers turn from yellow to red is where Andrew went from a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane.

[Moose4]

Don't even remind me of that thing. Nothing like driving over the Grace Bridge on a windy day when I'm scared of heights...I don't care what kind of traffic contortions I have to do, when I'm in Charleston and have to cross over to Mount Pleasant, I get on the "new old" bridge instead of the "old old" bridge!

}:-)4

[Ditter]

The Cat 5 rating is for the wind speed. Even a Tropical Depression can drop 20 to 30 inches of rain.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Good luck to everyone on the east coast. I've never experienced a hurricane (just earthquakes). I don't think I want to!

[Moose4]

I was three years old and living in Virginia in 1969 when Camille dropped her death blow on the east slopes of the Blue Ridge...twenty-eight inches of rain in eight hours, in the middle of the night, 113 dead. My family was OK, but the worst flooding was just 30 miles north of us. My mom always told me that for two days, there was a nonstop flow of National Guard helicopters in and out of the junior high we lived next to.

That b!tch left a trail from Mississippi to Maryland.

}:-)4

[don-o]

I'd be predicting one of the worst weather disasters in US history.

Is Galveston the worst ever?

[glory]

I love that guy! I think sometimes I stay up late just to catch a few minutes of his forecasts.

[don-o]

I'd be predicting one of the worst weather disasters in US history.

Is Galveston the worst ever?

[nwctwx]

Time sensitive: ECMWF tends to be a good long range model...

This would imply a pretty good hit near the VA/NC border at 168 hours (Next Friday).

 

[nwctwx]

Image is Time sensitive: ECMWF tends to be a good long range model...

This would imply a pretty good hit near the VA/NC border at 168 hours (Next Friday). Of course, there are other models (18z GFS) predicting a hit near NYC. Either way, it is worth watching north of a SC line at this point.

 

[StriperSniper]

Very cool site!

[nwctwx]

sorry for the double post, things are working slowly over here.

[blam]

"Bah... spelled Hurrican wrong... change if possible :-)"

Pick any spelling.

What is the origin of the name "hurricane"?

"HURRICANE derived from 'Hurican', the Carib god of evil... alternative spellings: foracan, foracane, furacana, furacane, furicane,furicano, haracana, harauncana, haraucane, haroucana, harrycain, hauracane, haurachana, herican, hericane, hericano, herocane, herricao, herycano, heuricane, hiracano, hirecano, hurac[s]n, huracano, hurican, hurleblast, hurlecan, hurlecano, hurlicano, hurrican, hurricano, hyrracano, urycan, hyrricano, jimmycane, oraucan, uracan, uracano"

From the Glossary of Meteorology

It should be noted that the name 'Hurican' was derived from the Maya 'Hurakan', one of their creator gods, who blew his breath across the Chaotic water and brought forth dry land.

[b4its2late]

Stay prepared in Cary (Containment Area for Relocated Yankees) buddy!

[PatrickHenry]

Drudge has a link to this map under the headline "Computer Models":