HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

[John H K]

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[July 4th]

This is one big sucker. Lets hope she loses a little steam or makes a right hook sometime in the next week or so.

[StriperSniper]

the deserts of SE NM

Other than pure heat, are there any natural disaster concerns there? Cali has it's quakes, the Plains have tornados, here in the NE we have blizzards and an occasional weaker hurricane. But other than heat, I can't think of anyhing that might happen in the desert(well maybe flash floods).

[Charles Martel]

As a person who survived hurricane Camille in 1969, I don't wish these kind of storms on anybody!
No, wait a second....I wish them on the Clintons! Yes, that would be worth the wreckage and distruction if it would wipe them out!

As someone who also experienced Camille (the last Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S., I believe), I concur. It would indeed be sweet to see the Chappaqua "compound" swept away like the Richelieu Apartments were in '69.

[RayChuang88]

This is one big sucker. Lets hope she loses a little steam or makes a right hook sometime in the next week or so.

I hope so, too! I'm worried that the storm in Category 4 or 5 status will smack right into Cape Canaveral--causing great damage to Cape Canaveral launch facilities. People forget that the buildings that service the Space Shuttle are rated up to 200 mph wind speeds--and if Isabelle turns into something like Camille in 1969 it could rip those buildings apart like matchsticks. =(

[The Hose]

I got bit by a rattlesnake once if you include that in the "natural disaster" category, but no, its pretty much just HOT, dry, dusty and windy right where I was. Oh yeah, we have had pretty good fires in the mountains the past few years thanks to the recent drought there. Not so here; big difference.

[My Favorite Headache]

I wouldn't lose a nights rest about it...seriously.Right now it is just impressive to look at. It will be half the storm it is now in about 4-5 days.

[StriperSniper]

I got bit by a rattlesnake once if you include that in the "natural disaster" category,

Nah, dangerous wildlfe is a whole 'nuther catagory! Those desert ones are kinda nasty I've heard, our Jersey ones tend to be very timid. I haven't seen one in years(I don't crawl around the Pines and swamps as much as I did as a kid ;-), but they always gave lots of warning.

[The Hose]

Yep, my guess right now is it turns right pretty quick and heads north, but the question is if it can beat it all the way north through the ridge made up of whats left of TD Henri from last week. If not it hovers, and wanders like a drunk (with a very bad attitude). Watch out then!

[wingnuts'nbolts]

Scary, I was here for both of them. Andrew had me really frightened. Mean tight destructive little storm.

[StriperSniper]

No, wait a second....I wish them on the Clintons! Yes, that would be worth the wreckage and distruction if it would wipe them out!

The wreckage and destruction of a Cat5 coming up the Hudson to hit them would make 9/11, Dresden, and Hiroshima combined look like a picnic. Fortunately, I don't think a storm could maintain that kind of power in these 'northern' waters.

[LTCJ]

I guess it's a matter of timing. I'm still sticking with a Savannah to Myrtle beach landfall.

Speaking as a Savannah hurricane response-type person, here's hoping you're really, really wrong.

It's gonna be a long weekend.

[floriduh voter]

My mom flew over Henre last week on her way to Vegas. They were directly over the eye. The only bad news to report is that she gambled away the change I gave her right away. She had quarters and nickels. She's not a high roller.

[SauronOfMordor]

It's looking like Georgia/Carolinas by the track

[Domestic Church]

Manhattan & Long Island!

[Nexus]

I don't think a storm could maintain that kind of power in these 'northern' waters

Don't mean to scare you, but one could. A strong storm riding up the gulf stream, just grazing the coast,would only hit "cooler" water right past the tip of NC, from there it's only a couple hundred miles to NYC - not enough to diminish the intensity very much at all. An intense 170 mph storm would drop to 145/150, still a cat5. This hasn't happened in a major extent in modern meteorological times, trajectory and all, but I'm sure it's possible.

[SauronOfMordor]

It's gonna be a long weekend.

it's not going to be anywhere near us by the weekend. Looks more like next Thu-Fri

[blam]

"No, make that every precinct in AL that voted against the 'Income Tax for Jesus' increase."

That's 67% of us.

[Paradox]

I lived through Andrew too, the northern eye wall, winds of 165+ mph. That thing tore down cinder block buildings in its path. This is like Andrew windwise, only a bit stronger and much larger! This thing is a FREAK, if it comes anywhere near me, I am gettin the heck outa Dodge..

[Dog Gone]

I wouldn't lose a nights rest about it...seriously.Right now it is just impressive to look at. It will be half the storm it is now in about 4-5 days.

Why are you so much smarter and confident than the people at NOAA?

[SC Swamp Fox]

Here in Florence...

Batteries..check.
Flashlights...check.
Fresh water....check.