I posted this weeks ago.
The only thing that is going on right now between the two camps is haggling about the price. Arnold has to do four things:
1. Let Tom and his people in the SS and the Assembly have a big say when crafting the budget in December.
2. Take care of Tom's Thousand Oaks Senate district (repaving the 101, making sure Ventura county schools and law enforcement get their cut, etc.). There is more horsetrading going on even now, I'll bet.
3. Leave Tom's people in the party alone and tell Gerald Parsky to back the f8^k off. Arnold needs to make sure this happens if he has any hope of corralling some of Tom's base voters. I'm told they just don't like Parsky.
4. Give Tom an open field to run against Boxer next year. Personally, I think McClintock might be on the cusp of something. He is distinguished from the other candidates by his unswerving honesty and devotion to what he believes in. TMC is a guy who is ready to break out and go national. My belief is that he should serve a couple of House terms and go after Feinstein's seat when she bails.
Tom McClintock holds all the cards here. He wins by being the good party man, but must not bail out before this weekend's convention. This is where Tom gets his "A Time For Choosing" moment to establish himself as the Next Reagan. This convention is where Tom speaks to the base and bonds them to him for future campaigns. This is also where Tom tells the base that California's fate is too important to take second place to Tom's own ambition. Tom pulls out after a Reaganesque speech that will establish him as the next, incorruptible Republican star. Tom convinces the base to go for Arnold rather than condemn California to the "Davis-Bustamante" regime.
Schwarzenegger may become governor, but the big winner will be McClintock; if it can be seen by the Party rank and file that McClintock threw his entire support to Arnold. Any which way, Tom wins, even if Arnold loses. Even if it turns out that there are pictures of Arnold having rough trade sex with the Villiage People, McClintock can say "I was just being the good soldier...".
Tom McClintock can become the new kingmaker in California politics precisely because he owns his base, and can move to the center at his leasure. Arnold has no base, only superstar attraction and a reputation for being able to do things. Bustamante's base is there for him, but it's fractured. If Tom handles his Moment properly, he can propel himself to the Senate.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Gerald Parsky to back the f8^k off. I have been wanting this to happen for a long time! His fellow travelers have been trying to lynch the party here in Orange County for a long time.
The threads will be hot and heavy next Monday!!
Check THIS out, from section9:
To: dead
I posted this weeks ago.
The only thing that is going on right now between the two camps is haggling about the price. Arnold has to do four things:
1. Let Tom and his people in the SS and the Assembly have a big say when crafting the budget in December.
2. Take care of Tom's Thousand Oaks Senate district (repaving the 101, making sure Ventura county schools and law enforcement get their cut, etc.). There is more horsetrading going on even now, I'll bet.
3. Leave Tom's people in the party alone and tell Gerald Parsky to back the f8^k off. Arnold needs to make sure this happens if he has any hope of corralling some of Tom's base voters. I'm told they just don't like Parsky.
4. Give Tom an open field to run against Boxer next year. Personally, I think McClintock might be on the cusp of something. He is distinguished from the other candidates by his unswerving honesty and devotion to what he believes in. TMC is a guy who is ready to break out and go national. My belief is that he should serve a couple of House terms and go after Feinstein's seat when she bails.
Tom McClintock holds all the cards here. He wins by being the good party man, but must not bail out before this weekend's convention.
This is where Tom gets his "A Time For Choosing" moment to establish himself as the Next Reagan. This convention is where Tom speaks to the base and bonds them to him for future campaigns. This is also where Tom tells the base that California's fate is too important to take second place to Tom's own ambition. Tom pulls out after a Reaganesque speech that will establish him as the next, incorruptible Republican star. Tom convinces the base to go for Arnold rather than condemn California to the "Davis-Bustamante" regime.
Schwarzenegger may become governor, but the big winner will be McClintock; if it can be seen by the Party rank and file that McClintock threw his entire support to Arnold. Any which way, Tom wins, even if Arnold loses. Even if it turns out that there are pictures of Arnold having rough trade sex with the Villiage People, McClintock can say "I was just being the good soldier...".
Tom McClintock can become the new kingmaker in California politics precisely because he owns his base, and can move to the center at his leasure. Arnold has no base, only superstar attraction and a reputation for being able to do things. Bustamante's base is there for him, but it's fractured. If Tom handles his Moment properly, he can propel himself to the Senate.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
114 posted on 09/10/2003 1:44 PM PDT by section9 (To read my blog, click on the Major!)
This is the most optimistic
"best case" scenario that I have seen.
If Tom McClintock has learned ANYTHING from his many years of service in Sacramento, he will understand that acting as section9 proposes here is his duty, and his destiny.
And, if Arnold is the media-saavy genius that many here believe him to be, he will milk this "made for TV event" for all it's worth.
Stay tuned for an EMOTIONAL convention this weekend. :o)
I believe your scenario holds some bones for everyone to walk away with. I hope that it comes to pass.
I would urge Tom to work on his demeaner over the next year or two. The guy has excellent ideas, but watching him on the turbe bothers me. He needs to smile more and become more personable.
Some will think I'm just trying to trash the guy, but these suggestions will make him much more electable next time around.
Thanks for the ping Ron and S9.