Posted on 07/30/2003 2:03:53 PM PDT by leadpencil1
The anger felt by American workers about high-tech jobs going to India will fade away in a couple of years. That’s the prediction from research company Gartner. The reason that the company believes the anger will ebb is that by then the global economy will have improved and unemployment levels will have decreased. Offshore outsourcing is now a “mega-trend” that will cause up to 10 percent of IT professionals in the US to lose their jobs by 2004. Despite bills passed in the US houses of government aimed at slowing or even stopping offshore outsourcing, none have been passed into law yet as American authorities tend not to interfere with the right of businesses to operate in the most competitive manner possible.
Actually, I don't, but feel free to mischaracterize
They aren't. They don't care if the world economy collapses.
Y'know, the last time we had a major world economic crash, we got World War II.
Are you seriously saying that they don't mind risking being on the receiving end of a nuclear laydown--from multiple nuclear powers, at that?
They don't care if the dollar crashes.
Since that's what they're getting paid in, they'd better.
Their desires are different than ours. They use slave labor and don't care if a few million of their citizens die from starvation.
Try about 1.3 billion or so--food distribution networks and nuclear blasts are not particularly compatible.
They don't care if all their girl babies die.
And THAT, good sir, is why I'm not especially worried about them--because there's a massive range of social pathologies related to that particular behavior that will surface in the next few years. They're going to be a non-issue inside of two decades.
They don't care. They ave declared economic war on us and they are winning.
Just as the Japanese did in the 1970s and 1980s. And just as the Japanese were supposedly winning in the 1980s.
The fact that they will have many more men than women in the next few decades should scare everyone.
Collapsing the global economy is not conducive to achieving this goal. People all over the place will tend to get snippy about it.
They are involved in a different type of warfare.
So were the Japanese. They lost. People who choose to treat economics as a form of warfare don't have a clue as to how to do well at either.
Even if the war does get hot, much of China is already just a step from the stone age.
That part of China is completely irrelevant to China as a world power. The part that's urbanized and industrialized is the important part--and without the ability to transport food from grower to consumer, that part of China will fall apart quite rapidly.
They would be far less affected than the US.
They wouldn't be anything resembling a nation-state, either--just a bunch of people seeking to eat their neighbors before their neighbors eat them.
The fact that they will have many more men than women in the next few decades should scare everyone
Not everyone--mostly, it should scare the people living in China now who will be around for the result. In theory, that means that there's a huge surplus of men available for soldiering.
In practice, considering how xenophobic Asian cultures are, it means that there's a huge body of men with ZERO prospect of being co-opted into helping perpetuate Chinese society, because they will not have brides suited to Chinese cultural sensitivities. And those young men will know this.
In that kind of environment...
Giving those young men military training--assuming that Chinese society can hold together under the stresses of millions of Chinese juvenile delinquents, which is questionable to begin with--is somewhat akin to playing with a fueled-up flamethrower in a powder magazine. The results are predictable...and f'ugly.
China's going to be a first-order example of what happens when you combine Enron-style accounting and near-genocidal social engineering practices. Get yourself a soda and some popcorn, boy, it's going to be quite a show when the wheels come off.
Wrong again, there is no contradiction. Actually, it would be precisely the opposite of your assertion. You don't comprehend the implications for the collapse of the dollar. That means that there will be a declining relative price of US commodities (US Agoods being banned from China's consumers for all essential purposes, and no longer made in the USA anyways). I.e., those 'worthless' dollars will buy lots of extremely cheap things needful to continue to fuel their titanic economy...and draining those things (or inflating their price domestically) we need for ours. But Just not for us, from our viewpoint those dollars will buy us squat.
This means that we will be selling the Chinese large quantities of coal, oil, natural gas, iron and other raw mineral ores, timber, sugar, grains and vegetables and for far less value in Yuan. And No manufactures. And we will be paying dear for any manufactures from the rest of the world.
This will be Japan on steroids. And the reason your argument that 'Japan failed to take over the world' fails to prove your point about China is because there are extreme differences. First, since the Chinese are starting from a drastically lower yuan than the Japanese did with their yen, the appreciation of the yuan will be to generate even more capital advantages for the Chinese than did the appreciating yen. Second, what will they do with their wealth? Rather than purely squander it, they will likely avoid the Welfare State Mistake that Japan took, and the Inflated Real Estate Mistake (they have a great deal more land not being an island). Avoiding these twin mistakes should be easy for a bunch of skin-flint Communist bureaucrats in Beijing. Avoiding them, they will have huge disposable capital resources to devote further industrialization, and an arms race.
As for the Dollar propping up their 'bankrupt' banking system, that can be adjusted on the fly rather quickly to the Japanese yen or anything else if needed. But the dollars will be doing just fine for them as their yuan appreciates in value. (I.e., can buy more) Hence the collapse of the dollar depends on your point of view. In layman's terms for you: It would literally be ruinous for us, and a windfall for them and their banks.
As for our trading with other currencies, with the collapse of our manufactures, the dollar's collapse will be likely across the board with all major currencies.
Guess again. If producers of commodities can get MORE money selling domestically than to the ChiComs, then they will set the price at the higher level for EVERYONE.
But Just not for us, from our viewpoint those dollars will buy us squat.
If the value of the dollar has dropped that sharply, then it will not buy lots of anything, cheap or otherwise.
You seem to be subscribing to a Marxist theory of value here.
This means that we will be selling the Chinese large quantities of coal, oil, natural gas, iron and other raw mineral ores, timber, sugar, grains and vegetables and for far less value in Yuan.
Son, when you f*** over your customers, you will discover that they can be very creatively effective in repaying the favor.
And No manufactures. And we will be paying dear for any manufactures from the rest of the world.
Wrong--mostly because, in your scenario, the ChiComs will have enraged the rest of the world to the point where SOMEONE might decide it's better to shoot the nukes at Beijing than to assent to being impoverished.
But also because there will be someone else lining up to do business by undercutting the artificially-inflated price the ChiComs are trying to charge.
This will be Japan on steroids.
Yup. The ChiComs, in your scenario, will not simply shoot themselves in the foot, they'll blow their legs off, THEN eat the muzzle of the shotgun.
And the reason your argument that 'Japan failed to take over the world' fails to prove your point about China is because there are extreme differences.
You posit that they are following the same strategy, and then say, "no, there are extreme differences."
First, since the Chinese are starting from a drastically lower yuan than the Japanese did with their yen, the appreciation of the yuan will be to generate even more capital advantages for the Chinese than did the appreciating yen.
The appreciating yen did not yield Japan capital advantages--it raised the US price of their exports and encouraged other producers to enter the US marketplace, including US manufacturers.
Second, what will they do with their wealth? Rather than purely squander it, they will likely avoid the Welfare State Mistake that Japan took,
Actually, they're already doing that--massive and ongoing bailouts of various industrial concerns by Chinese banks, followed by massive ongoing bailouts of the banks by the central government. Which, BTW, is why Japan, Inc. failed in its bid to take over the world.
They're Enron. Enron with a modestly impressive arsenal of nuclear weapons, but they're still Enron when you get down to it.
and the Inflated Real Estate Mistake (they have a great deal more land not being an island).
Most of that land in uninhabited and unused for one very good reason or another. It will stay uninhabited and unused for that same reason. So they'll probably get interested in real estate for the same reason the Japanese did.
Avoiding these twin mistakes should be easy for a bunch of skin-flint Communist bureaucrats in Beijing.
They're already making those same mistakes. They're also just looting a fair amount of the incoming cash for their own purposes.
Avoiding them, they will have huge disposable capital resources to devote further industrialization, and an arms race.
In reality, as opposed to the parallel universe you inhabit where Communism actually works, they will continue to subsidize money-losing industries and further corrupt their own armed forces.
In the US Army, an ambitious young 2nd Lieutenant goes into Infantry, Armor, or Artillery (Infantry and Armor being the preferred routes, Artillery being a distant third).
In the Chinese Army, assignment to the combat arms means that you've been identified as a complete loser. Ambitious young officers seek assignment to one of the PLA's businesses, where they can rake off some of the money.
An army that focuses its prime efforts on business will not fare well in a shooting war.
As for the Dollar propping up their 'bankrupt' banking system, that can be adjusted on the fly rather quickly to the Japanese yen or anything else if needed.
Only a dyed-in-the-wool Communist would assert that.
You need to change your screen name to Lincoln Steffens.
But the dollars will be doing just fine for them as their yuan appreciates in value. (I.e., can buy more) Hence the collapse of the dollar depends on your point of view.
Right. From the point of view of the rest of the world, the ChiComs just torpedoed the entire world economy--including their little piece of it--and a bunch of those folks have nuclear weapons.
Think about this: you just vaporized the wealth of a bunch of Russian gangsters, who have a LOT of influence in the Russian government.
They might decide that it's fitting to vaporize YOU, and not just your money.
In layman's terms for you: It would literally be ruinous for us, and a windfall for them and their banks.
Until they discover that the only thing that was propping up their banks was the overvalued dollar. When they try to swap out those dollar-denominated notes to raise the next round of bailout cash, they discover that they just killed the only significant income-producing assets they had and desyroyed their resale value.
As for our trading with other currencies, with the collapse of our manufactures, the dollar's collapse will be likely across the board with all major currencies.
Which means that the ChiCom banking system goes from "SOL" to "FUBAR," because no one will want those dollar-denominated notes, and they generate no income.
You are. Don't like being called on it? Tough.
The idea we (or the Russian Mafia) would only THEN nuke china when we are ALREADY DETERRED From defending Taiwan in a large measure by their small nuclear threat.
Which explains why they have invaded Taiwan and forcibly reunited it with the Mainland...
Oops. They haven't. You're sounding crazier by the second.
But I see that you're subscribing to the concept of rational deterrence, even after one or more parties begin behaving irrationally.
Nations that have had their economies cratered by the deliberate actions of foreign nations tend to not behave rationally in the aftermath. See: Germany, 1923-45.
Prove it, name-caller.
Which explains why they have invaded Taiwan and forcibly reunited it with the Mainland... Oops. They haven't.
Oops, yourself. They are showing every sign of gearing up for it, about to invade (and we have been self-deterred by their nukes--the Chinese can reasonably conclude--and won't send the Tawianese , Sprint Interceptor missiles, Patriot PAC-3 air defense missiles, F-15s or Aegis cruisers or even make any damn electric submarines for them, as GWB has finally begun to fnd how industrially weak we have become thanks to economic Free Traitors).
And if China is not invading sooner (they can be very patient in their strategy) at least credibly threaten to do so....and terrorize the region to coerce capitulation in the Chinese continuation of the Cold War. They just deployed another 300 missiles with neutron warheads against Taiwan and the Pacific Theater US Forces. And they are rushing ahead with their Article 28 in Hong Kong so as to begin the process of subjugating it completely to the Party-Line. You're the one sounding crazier by the second. You have escalated ad hominem attacks on those who point out these stubborn facts, and challenge your benign panda-hugging interpretations.
As the refugees say about China's communist thinking: "They are crazy, and they will go nuclear right away. They intend to win." Sounds like you have something in common with the tyrants of Bejing. Everyone take note.
But I see that you're subscribing to the concept of rational deterrence, even after one or more parties begin behaving irrationally.
So now you're conceding that the Chinese are 'behaving irrationally' I.e., like Communists. Actually we are contributing to the irrationality by appeasing them and ignoring the fact that they are communists who are about to launch an attack, or alternatively, drastically ratchet up the cold war. So why have your arguments ALWAYS been 100% supportive of that continued irrational policy of appeasement? As further proof of your irrationality, you constantly counsel THAT WE DO NOTHING TO DEFEND OURSELVES. Instead of doing anything, you would have us depend for our future on the preposterous assertions that the 'other side' either (a) collapses of their own stupidity, (b) change their minds after reaching a stage of economic enlightenment and become civilized, or (c) some miraculous 'invisible hand' will protect us from our own foreign policy ineptitude and economic policy 'Free-Traitor' paralysis. You have no solutions, but appear to be part of the problem.
To get an idea how serious this really is for the freedoms the Hong Kong folks have taken for granted since British colonial rule and the Chinese promise of maintaining 'two systems' autonomy, check out the demonstrations that have been occurring in Hong Kong:
400,000 march in protest Article 23
AFAR 7/1/2003
[Hong Kong, July 1, 2003] The press estimated that 400,000 to 1 million local Hong Kong residents took to the streets in protest of the new Article 23 bill imposed on Hong Kong by Beijing.
This was the largest public rally since 1989 when Hong Kong residents gathered in public to support students on Tiananmen Square. Political analysts say that this rally also expressed discontent toward the Hong Kong Administration handpicked by Beijing over a series of issues such as the declining economy, unemployment, SARS-related health issues, and the terror of this new security bill for censorship, etc.
It is reported that groups such as the press and publishing business, Christians, the Falun Gong spiritual movement, teachers, and the legal community are gravely concerned with deprivation of their rights due to this new bill.
Needs to be added to the Best Flame Ever...
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