A Vision of China’s Future Revolution

Remember the emblem of the Communist party? The hammer and the sickle. With China’s newly adopted sector of commerce, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is sitting on a three-legged stool -- agriculture, industry and commerce.

In today’s China, the likelihood of a guerrilla warfare or armed uprising is near zero. Even if there are some sporadic acts of terrorism, there is simply not sufficient firearms in the society to sustain any meaningful impact on China’s militia. Contrary to public belief, the most likely cause of a social uprising in China is not the quest for more democracy. Democracy is never the first priority among the majority Chinese populace. Given the low education level of the general public, the crave for democracy is not strong enough to risk their lives and ignite the necessary forest fire in China to force a government change. So, both routes are cul-de-sac.

The most realistic scenario of a social uprising in China which can threaten the CCP still lies in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Most ironically, the CCP had built their power on these two foundations but, in the end, they are the most oppressed and exploited. They have contributed their lifetime of hardship but cannot share the fruit of prosperity like the city dwellers. They are the most disillusion people in China and, together, they constitute 90 percent of China’s population. Since China’s open-door policy in 1980, these two sectors remain the most dangerous and worrisome hot spots. Numerous internal reports (classified) in China’s central government have time and again sounded this alarm. The central government knows that they are walking on a tight rope but took very little action to

When the government want to improve cost effectiveness and revamp the old and mammoth state owned enterprises,the workers livelihood are sacrificed in exchange for commercial viability. There are a huge number of redundant and laid off labor force in state owned enterprises which are still owed pension dues and are on the brink of starvation. There had been numerous public demonstration, with protesters ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand, but were relentlessly suppressed by the government, most of the time, bloodily. Obviously, this policy doesn’t serve to defuse the ticking time bomb.

With the Government controlling both their production costs (in seeds, insecticide, fertilizer, animal feed, medicine, implements, etc.) and the produce’s selling price, the farmers earnings are constantly compressed by the government to the point that their income is not enough to support their own food requirement. On top of that. farmers and rural workers are further exploited and abused by corrupt local government officials who deduct all sorts of local taxes (such as road building, water, electricity, etc.) from their meager crop sales. The farmers’ animosity are up to the boiling point and will boil over any time. With the joining of WTO and the influx of competitively priced foreign foodstuff, the farmers’ livelihood will be further threatened.

Everyone is complaining that China is importing foreign jobs and exporting deflation to the entire world. However, very few can pinpoint the question: How do they manage that? If you look close enough, the answer is quite simple. They have an enormous supply of cheap food on the expense of the rural population. And, cheap food means cheap labor -- exploitation of the labor force becomes feasible because these people are forced to work for cheap food. By continuing to exploit and enslave these two peasant classes, China can afford to produce anything cheaper than any country. Look around the world, which other nation has this kind of competitive edge?

The use of unnecessary force or a bloody crackdown on any one of these regional riots could trigger a national outbreak. Only China’s super-efficient news blackout is preventing this from escalating into a catastrophic scale nationwide social unrest. However, the internet age is making this more and more difficult for the central government. If news of the regional social unrest leaked out and caught the attention of the general public, it would be uncontrollable. Self initiated social movements will mushroom all over the country. General strike in all national industries will cripple China’s production. Mass boycott and strike in the rural population will choke China’s food supply. Very soon, the strikes and shortage of supply will take effect in the cities and commerce will eventually grind to a halt. Checkmate. The People’s Liberation Army will have to take over major utilities (electricity, water, rail, etc.) to keep the country barely functioning. The government will declare martial law. Expatriates and foreign investors will book their next flight out. There will be long lines of people in food markets, stores and depositors rushing to the banks. No government, including Communist China, can last more than four weeks under this state of emergency.

The CCP’s iron-fist control on the civilian is working against her in this instance. Since it is illegal to organize any protest and demonstration in China, most of these self-initiated social movement and civil disobedience will have no recognizable organizers. This make it more difficult for the government to douse the fire by arresting a few activists and lock up the leadership. They cannot kill the snake by cutting off its head. It is a headless snake. If they want to terminate the movement, they have to kill the crowd -- the general public. However, both of these sectors are too numerous to deal with and are China’s artery. Can the government afford to use brute force to solve the problem? No, not even in Deng XiaoPing’s time. In retrospect, if the Tiananmen students were popularly supported by these two peasant sectors, the June 4 massacre in 1989 wouldn’t have happened at all.

So, let’s get back to the basic. What I envisioned above is not a bloody revolution. The whole process can still be bloodless if both the government and the public inter-react sensibly and rationally. Short of an all out military conflict, no foreign force can more effectively bring down the Chinese Communist government than her billion- strong people. If either or both sectors act together, it will bring the CCP to its knees. In a nationwide social uprising like this, even the CCP’s largest standing army in the world will be rendered completely useless.

This brinkmanship has been sort of co-opted to some degree in the past.
U.S. allows China "Face" in most issues...allows them to win the Public image war..ie the P3C Orion..where China crashed the U.S. plane and scoffed the Technology..and did it all right out in the open..while making demands on the U.S. to answer the great Insult they recieved.

The Corporation crowd desires China too..but they also have a limited patience for games...here China may find big money being spent to strir rebellion in their land..and make them squeal Uncle.
If the U.S. so wishes.they can play N.K. as uncooperative...move for U.N. sanctions.
China would be isolated..and view as compliant to terror and wmd production.
Soon China would be under sanctions..with U.S. encouraging business other alternatives..such as South Korea..Taiwan and other Pacific rim nations.
China's game could backfire....it could also lead to direct military action by the U.S. in North Korea.

China got clobbered good by SARS..they cannot afford business to become unsure of their market stabilty.
I think the U.S. will call the cards on them soon..its give up Chubby Boy in N.K.....or watch your oil/gas supply and market options shrivel.

Wouldn't it be just as easy, and much more effective, to fly a commercial airliner over the western part of China to drop several loads of flyers which the jet stream will distribute all over the country? The pesants who can't afford internet access can read....

Yes, this is one way. In fact, the underground Democratic Party just tried to do something similar in May this year. They planned to fly a helium balloon over the Tiananmen square and trigger the drop of flyers with radio remote control. Unfortunately, the plan was foiled by the authority because there was a leak in the organization. But, yes, what you suggested is a way to achieve the same effect. It is much more difficult for the authority to discover in the rural area.

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