A Vision of China’s Future Revolution

Self | July 24, 2003 | FreepForever

[FreepForever]

Remember the emblem of the Communist party? The hammer and the sickle. With China’s newly adopted sector of commerce, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is sitting on a three-legged stool -- agriculture, industry and commerce.

In today’s China, the likelihood of a guerrilla warfare or armed uprising is near zero. Even if there are some sporadic acts of terrorism, there is simply not sufficient firearms in the society to sustain any meaningful impact on China’s militia. Contrary to public belief, the most likely cause of a social uprising in China is not the quest for more democracy. Democracy is never the first priority among the majority Chinese populace. Given the low education level of the general public, the crave for democracy is not strong enough to risk their lives and ignite the necessary forest fire in China to force a government change. So, both routes are cul-de-sac.

The most realistic scenario of a social uprising in China which can threaten the CCP still lies in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Most ironically, the CCP had built their power on these two foundations but, in the end, they are the most oppressed and exploited. They have contributed their lifetime of hardship but cannot share the fruit of prosperity like the city dwellers. They are the most disillusion people in China and, together, they constitute 90 percent of China’s population. Since China’s open-door policy in 1980, these two sectors remain the most dangerous and worrisome hot spots. Numerous internal reports (classified) in China’s central government have time and again sounded this alarm. The central government knows that they are walking on a tight rope but took very little action to

When the government want to improve cost effectiveness and revamp the old and mammoth state owned enterprises,the workers livelihood are sacrificed in exchange for commercial viability. There are a huge number of redundant and laid off labor force in state owned enterprises which are still owed pension dues and are on the brink of starvation. There had been numerous public demonstration, with protesters ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand, but were relentlessly suppressed by the government, most of the time, bloodily. Obviously, this policy doesn’t serve to defuse the ticking time bomb.

With the Government controlling both their production costs (in seeds, insecticide, fertilizer, animal feed, medicine, implements, etc.) and the produce’s selling price, the farmers earnings are constantly compressed by the government to the point that their income is not enough to support their own food requirement. On top of that. farmers and rural workers are further exploited and abused by corrupt local government officials who deduct all sorts of local taxes (such as road building, water, electricity, etc.) from their meager crop sales. The farmers’ animosity are up to the boiling point and will boil over any time. With the joining of WTO and the influx of competitively priced foreign foodstuff, the farmers’ livelihood will be further threatened.

Everyone is complaining that China is importing foreign jobs and exporting deflation to the entire world. However, very few can pinpoint the question: How do they manage that? If you look close enough, the answer is quite simple. They have an enormous supply of cheap food on the expense of the rural population. And, cheap food means cheap labor -- exploitation of the labor force becomes feasible because these people are forced to work for cheap food. By continuing to exploit and enslave these two peasant classes, China can afford to produce anything cheaper than any country. Look around the world, which other nation has this kind of competitive edge?

The use of unnecessary force or a bloody crackdown on any one of these regional riots could trigger a national outbreak. Only China’s super-efficient news blackout is preventing this from escalating into a catastrophic scale nationwide social unrest. However, the internet age is making this more and more difficult for the central government. If news of the regional social unrest leaked out and caught the attention of the general public, it would be uncontrollable. Self initiated social movements will mushroom all over the country. General strike in all national industries will cripple China’s production. Mass boycott and strike in the rural population will choke China’s food supply. Very soon, the strikes and shortage of supply will take effect in the cities and commerce will eventually grind to a halt. Checkmate. The People’s Liberation Army will have to take over major utilities (electricity, water, rail, etc.) to keep the country barely functioning. The government will declare martial law. Expatriates and foreign investors will book their next flight out. There will be long lines of people in food markets, stores and depositors rushing to the banks. No government, including Communist China, can last more than four weeks under this state of emergency.

The CCP’s iron-fist control on the civilian is working against her in this instance. Since it is illegal to organize any protest and demonstration in China, most of these self-initiated social movement and civil disobedience will have no recognizable organizers. This make it more difficult for the government to douse the fire by arresting a few activists and lock up the leadership. They cannot kill the snake by cutting off its head. It is a headless snake. If they want to terminate the movement, they have to kill the crowd -- the general public. However, both of these sectors are too numerous to deal with and are China’s artery. Can the government afford to use brute force to solve the problem? No, not even in Deng XiaoPing’s time. In retrospect, if the Tiananmen students were popularly supported by these two peasant sectors, the June 4 massacre in 1989 wouldn’t have happened at all.

So, let’s get back to the basic. What I envisioned above is not a bloody revolution. The whole process can still be bloodless if both the government and the public inter-react sensibly and rationally. Short of an all out military conflict, no foreign force can more effectively bring down the Chinese Communist government than her billion- strong people. If either or both sectors act together, it will bring the CCP to its knees. In a nationwide social uprising like this, even the CCP’s largest standing army in the world will be rendered completely useless.

[FreepForever]

This is in reply to various responses to Enemy Of The State’s post “The World’s Next Superpower”(http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/951088/posts?page=1,50). This is something that I have written but not published sometime ago. Throughout the last 15 years, I have been collecting many bits and pieces of unpublished news (and hearsay) smuggled out from China by underground and undercover journalists (and conscience writers). I’m only trying my best to summarize the big picture here and put the pieces together. It is for you to judge whether this puzzle fits with today’s reality and trend of development. - FreepForever

[FreepForever]

PING

[harpseal]

The discussion of how China operates is very central to any economic discussion. Many governments throughout history have faced the same discontent and have dealt with it by engaging in foreign conquest.

[.cnI redruM]

I'm not confident this will work. The PLA owns much of the productive capital in CHina. Like in Nazi Germany, or in Rome under The Barracks Emporers, power is centralized in the military and will only be relinquished if the entire country collapses into ruin.

[jmc813]

Well written piece. You bring up some very good points.

[FreepForever]

Can PLA's capital replace the workers and the farmers? If you a nation is facing a general strike that halts production and shortage of food, can military might alone help?

[FreepForever]

PING

[.cnI redruM]

Will the workers and farmers run out of resolve before the soldiers run out of discipline and ammunition?

Live is valued differently in totalitarian societies.

[Travis McGee]

Ping

[FreepForever]

We are talking about 90% of PRC's 1.3 billion population here. Only the scale itself prevents any possibility of bloodshed. If we are talking about 3,000 workers or farmers, that's a different story.

What's the difference between ten million dead workers (and farmers) and ten million workers (and farmers) on strike? You still have no production and food. Can killing solve any problem?

[.cnI redruM]

If 10 million people ever agreed to a strike, I think any nation would go under. Even ours. I just don't see how such a movement would spontaneously occur. I'm sure the PLA would drop the hammer on any organizer who tried to unionize the labor their. The PRC will either have to be defeated in catastrophic war or will have to totally implode like The Warsaw Pact.

[FreepForever]

It is your second option that I am talking about -- implosion. China’s unions are all government controlled. They don’t need any organizer. Their common grief, hunger, anger directed towards the corrupt government is the best motivation behind. What it needs is people to spread the news. But, as you know, a general strike at this scale is just impossible to cover up in any news blackout. If it can happen to Rumania and Poland. It can happen to PRC as well.

[Ff--150]

Only China's super-efficient news blackout is preventing this from escalating into a catastrophic scale nationwide social unrest. However, the internet age is making this more and more difficult for the central government. If news of the regional social unrest leaked out and caught the attention of the general public, it would be uncontrollable

Quix, this was my point, in that with the internet and satellite the population of China will be observing the America way, and want a piece of this dream.

Perhaps leading to revolution internally, which would mean arms would need to be smuggled inside; or, the youth could be mobilized into an army, a huge army and just stroll on into the USA through our borders.

[.cnI redruM]

Perhaps the worst thing that could happen to the CCP would be for the general standard of living to improve to the point where more than 10% of the population had internet access. I have a friend in Vietnam who is pretty well wired. She writes stuff about the VCP that would get her shot if they were organized enough to keep track.

[FreepForever]

Yes, the free flow of information is the best weapon against a tyranny and a totalitarian government. Ironically, it is also the first thing they want to control, simply because information means thinking people. God bless and safeguard your friend in Vietnam. Sometimes, a pen is more powerful than a gun.

[NorseWood]

Doesn't the Chinese government control the internet over there? I would think that all our amature hackers would consider that a worthy challenge. But there are not enough computers over there. Does the Voice of America broadcast into central China via satelite?

[FreepForever]

Yes, they block the internet from time to time when there is unfavorable news (ie: the half-million protest march on July 1 in Hong Kong). They censor and block foreign TV news broadcast too. There are ways to bypass them. They cannot block internet emails, especially when text are changed into photos/images (ie: jpg, tiff) and voice/image attachments (ie: mpeg, wav, etc.). Yes, you are correct. Voice of America is broadcasted into China.

[Poohbah]

The discussion of how China operates is very central to any economic discussion. Many governments throughout history have faced the same discontent and have dealt with it by engaging in foreign conquest.

The recent track record (i.e., the last century) of such endeavours does not give comfort to the aggressor--those who started big wars came to grief in those wars.

[FreepForever]

Forgot one important point. We can also hijack one of their satellite broadcast channel. The Fa LunGong people in Taiwan did that twice and broadcasted a 12 minute anti-China-government video clip all over China. Beijing was furious but could do nothing about it.

[Tailgunner Joe]

You mean like what happened when China tried to invade Tibet?