[jethropalerobber]

Is there any doubt [marriage amendment] would pass???

imho, plenty of doubt.

in fact, i'm willing to say you will _never_ get it passed by 2/3 of the senate or 3/4 of the states. you should have tried it 10 years ago - so it goes.

[Antoninus]

imho, plenty of doubt. in fact, i'm willing to say you will _never_ get it passed by 2/3 of the senate or 3/4 of the states. you should have tried it 10 years ago - so it goes.

The 3/4 of the states should be no problem. 37 states already have a similar amendment on the books. That's one short of passage.

The 2/3 of the senate is the real hurdle. However, I have little doubt that once this issue goes national, the vote whores in that august body will care more about their careers than a handful of sodomites.

And even if such an amendment doens't pan out, guess what? No big deal. I already know how this all ends up. And it doesn't look good for the pro-buggery crowd...

[only1percent]

The marriage amendment has a shot. 2/3 of each House of Congress would be likely to pass it as presently constituted IF there were a provocation (such as the Massachussets or New Jersey decisions being handed down imposing gay marriage).

37 states would have to ratify, but they'd have 7 years to do so, and would only have to do so by a simple majority vote in each house of the state legislature.

To get to 13 states refusing to ratify, you have to start with a hard core (MA, CT, RI, NJ, NY, MD, CA) and then add six more which would never find an amenable legislature once in seven years.

Is there any doubt [marriage amendment] would pass??? imho, plenty of doubt.

in fact, i'm willing to say you will _never_ get it passed by 2/3 of the senate or 3/4 of the states. you should have tried it 10 years ago - so it goes.