One of Betty Jo's links led me to a
SARS page at Black Hawk College in Moline IL that I found very interesting.
One of their links was a set of SARS predictions made on April 23rd.
Those predictions assumed that 'if' SARS were not containable worldwide and if it kept spreading (under various scenarios), where would the numbers be all the way out thru October 31st 2003:
Their chart shows 3 columns, worst-case, best-case, and AVERAGE. I feel their column called "AVERAGE" represented their 'most likely' scenario. I also feel the number in that column predicted for TODAY was pretty close to right-on! 16-June = 17,000 'probable' PLUS 'suspected' patients to date.
[I feel the news media should not have completely ignored the 'suspected' cases because hospitals still need to treat those patients the same, AND many go on to being 'probable', or even die. Hospitals still fill up from 'suspected' patients, and it is taking as long as 14-21 days for 'suspected' cases to get converted to the 'probable' category in some areas.]
Here are some extractions from their 'most likely' column, PREDICTED IN APRIL!
- June 16.... 17k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date (worldwide)
- June 30.... 26k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date
- July 31.... 61k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date
- Aug 31....145k 'probable' and 'suspected' cases to date
- (I'll stop there because the naysayers will scream) but remember if these numbers are close, that is when Asian freshmen students will be packing up and flying to USA colleges and 'dorm'ing with our children.
Oh, and let's not forget how sloppy Canada got after it's travel warning was lifted...
China has JUST HAD it's travel warnings lifted in most of those areas with bogus containment curves that abruptly flatlined.
Betty Jo and aristeides, I think you are on to something with your posts of mycoplasmosis as a co-infection and/or a CYA to avoid labelling deaths as SARS related...
Here are some interesting summaries from articles at bhc.edu on the effects of other viruses vs mycoplasmosis...
- These results show that sialodacryoadenitis virus infection can exacerbate respiratory mycoplasmosis in rats under experimental conditions; therefore, the virus probably also contributes to expression of naturally occurring mycoplasmosis.
- Rats reinfected at 6 or 9 months were infectious to their naive cage mates. The results indicate that reinfection with homologous rat coronavirus can occur as early as 6 months after the initial infection, and such rats can transmit the infection to contact controls.
- Based on these results, it is evident that SDAV enhances lower respiratory tract disease in Wistar rats whether exposure occurs at one week prior to or at various intervals following M. pulmonis infections.
- These studies show that SDAV is infectious for mice and can be a pathogen for the respiratory system. Thus, SDAV infection of mice may be responsible for spurious seroconversions to MHV.
http://www.bhc.edu/eastcampus/leeb/aids/images/SARSsialodacryoadenitis.doc