Posted on 06/13/2003 9:27:37 AM PDT by Matchett-PI
[This is all the more delicious since it was written over a year ago]
Pundits and politicians across the world have been watching the bloody clashes between Israel and the Palestinians, screaming for President Bush to "do something." Act angry. Bite the lip. Flare the nostrils. Have a press conference. Demand everyone "sit down and talk." Toss a few cruise missiles around. Wag a finger. Have another press conference.
Of course, those mindless tactics are what created this recent mess in the first place.
As usual, the punditry sees the world about an inch thick.
For the hardcore students of The Art Of War master Sun Tzu, there is a deeper chess match unfolding behind the scenes.
After George H. W. Bush's harsh spanking of Iraq, Middle Eastern leaders poked at American resolve all during the muddled Clinton administration.
But September 11th crossed the line between annoyance and war.
The Al Qaeda allies made a classic fundamental error by attacking a stronger enemy with solid resolve, uniting historical enemies in the process, and giving George W. Bush the right to clean house.
In his first serious test of geo-political military wisdom, he orchestrated the elimination of the Taliban and relentless pursuit of Al Qaeda, while creating an Afghan government with a balanced temper between domestic independence and American friendship. Pakistan and Russia became American allies in the process. Arab leadership has gone scrambling.
Saddam Hussein knows he's next. By accident or intent, he pulled a ploy worthy of Sun Tzu: distracting and dividing the enemy.
The Palestinians have been the perpetual dupes of the Middle East, always willing to sacrifice themselves in a vain attempt to destroy Israel.
For 15 years, the rabid Palestinians haven't even questioned why their "allies" aren't massing armies to sweep through Israel, as if a few "martyrs" will convince the entire state of Israel to pull stakes and move away.
Reciting age-old promises to create a Palestinian state through the destruction of Israel, Hussein and his temporary allies have once again encouraged Palestinians to sacrifice their very children in a wave of suicidal genocide.
Yet Hussein's gambit isn't all that foolish, designed to draw Bush into taking sides against Palestinians, uniting Arabs against America, pulling the focus away from Afghanistan he is trying to drive a small wedge between Israel and America.
Bush is forced to appear unbiased, equally scolding Palestinians and Israelis.
Hussein also knows Arafat will perform lip service in condemning violence while Hezbollah and other factions will continue to send genocide bombers. America will have to spend some time and political capital, calming down the flare-ups.
But Bush has parried perfectly. He simply navigated around Hussein's trap.
Sharon has no problem ripping through the Palestinian camps, clearing out the danger zones. And Bush has no problem letting him, publicly chastising Sharon's actions while doing exactly nothing.
Sending Administration nice guy Colin Powell is a perfect pubic relations move, aimed at the hand-wringing punditry who have no choice but to snap in line. After all, they asked for a gesture, and they got one.
As a side benefit, the effect of Palestinian violence has drawn attention away from Afghanistan and Pakistan, where operations - and interrogations - are proceeding nicely.
This explains why Bush hasn't enforced his anti-terrorist line-in-the-sand policy towards Arafat.
Clinton and Barak ran breathlessly to the negotiating table, press corps, photographers and biographers in tow, losing interest in everything else. Bush sees the big picture, temporarily treating Arafat with legitimacy while quietly preparing for larger changes in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the noose still tightens around Al Qaeda. It's a matter of time until America engineers a coup that gives Hussein a Julius Caesar-like exit, pulling the rug out from under Arafat.
Thus for Bush, the larger target is taking down Hussein and setting up the New Iraq: an American-friendly regime that maintains Arab respect.
Next, the other shoe will drop on Iran, as Bush performs the opposite trick, dragging Iran's annoying ayatollahs back to a secular semi-democracy with religious influence.
That is why Iraq and Iran, historic enemies are united in egging on Palestinian terrorism. Military options are out, and terrorist distractions are all that's left to keep America at bay.
But Bush knows once Iraq and Iran are "converted", funding for terrorism will dry up.
Syria and the schizophrenic Saudi's will settle back in an isolated, grumbling silence or face a similar fate.
Like Syria and Lebanon, the Saudi sheiks may even choose "cleansing" the Palestinians to protect their kingdom. And Bush will be spared the aggravation.
Hussein's string of errors began long ago, when he overestimated his own power, Arab unity, the toughness of George H. W. Bush, and the resolve of American people.
By unnecessarily attacking Kuwait, he fractured the Arabian powers and united the world against Iraq.
By sacrificing his armed forces, he lost regional power.
By funding and assisting terrorism at all levels, he made himself an obvious threat, uniting enemies.
Most subtly, he lost internal support by impoverishing his people, making him ripe for revolt.
Impatient, he chose the wrong American president, and the wrong Israeli prime minister.
He didn't merely poke the hornets nest…he dragged the nest into a box he built around himself.
He created a situation where his enemy cannot fail.
Bush, on the other hand, isn't falling for the distractions.
He knows Middle East troubles are unnecessarily instigated by despotic troublemakers.
One way or another, Bush has an opportunity to take out Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria in the same model as Afghanistan: American supported internal popular revolt. When surrounding support disappears, only then will Arafat meekly negotiate.
The fundamental error all previous diplomatic efforts have made has been to treat the Palestinian symptom, while ignoring the outside forces.
Bush isn't making the same mistake.
Sun Tzu would appreciate both men and their maneuvering. Bush, for his wisdom. Hussein for his foolishness.
It seems the Middle Eastern Arabs have been so intent on preserving the past with thuggish and religious despotism that they refuse to learn history's lessons.
America once again has a president that understands patience, decisiveness, the art of war and its consequences.
As Sun Tzu promised, victory will result.
Love it!
Everyone needs to read this.
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