[John O]

Just following the discussion. I see a lot of worry about a fall outbreak. Why? Why would the disease revive in fall as opposed to sooner? Wouldn't the extra time between now and then give us better chances to find controls and/or cures?

And lastly, I don't remember seeing any speculation on whether this was a failed (botched) attempt at producing a bio weapon by the Chinese that escaped the lab. Any links to that sort of discussion? (I work in the chem/bio detection field and haven't seen anything on it from this end but it's amazing how fast FR is at finding the real story)

[Judith Anne]

One of the reasons we (and health authorities, AFTER the folks on FR did) are speculating about a fall outbreak is that during the Spanish flu epidemic, there was a spring "herald wave" of a relatively few cases, then in the fall, a huge number--millions.

Typically, influenza strains begin each year in China, where the dominant strain is identified and then the flu vaccines are manufactured for the US cases which inevitably result the following fall and winter. SARS is a coronavirus, not the flu, but you can see the logic.

That's the reason for the concern about this fall...

As far as whether or not this is a failed Chinese biowar experiment gone amock, I personally have no idea. China's farming and restaurant meat procurement practices, however, are sufficient to account for SARS in my opinion.

If it was a biowarfare catastrophe on China's part, then they will indeed pay an almost unbelievable price, in terms of economics but most of all in terms of humanity. It may well bring down the government there. Just guessing.

[Judith Anne]

PS, there've been FR discussions about the possibility that SARS is biowar, you might find links in backhoe's or flutters' threads that link and title most of the articles...