[Scott from the Left Coast]

If we reveal them, the tide of world opinion might swing a bit. That could make it more clear to RG commanders that using the stuff is a very bad idea.

Quite the opposite. The Iraqis are playing for world opinion -- and we know they desire that greatly in order to force a political settlement. We want them to think they have a chance to get that...because if they no longer think there's any chance of a political victory then they have no reason to hold back on the chemical weapons. The only thing keeping them from using them now is that they think they can win this politically.

If we reveal them, three things happen: 1. The chemical weapons, every one of them they have, comes at us; 2. The Arab world sees the damage they cause and rallies even harder behind Saddam; France and Germany and Russia get a bit embarrassed but then say that these things would have been found and taken from Saddam if we had just given Dum-Dum Blix more time, so it's our fault that they were used.

We want to avoid them being used -- that's the "prime directive" for us. And that's why we're going to keep giving Saddam hope that he won't have to use -- hope that he can win this politically.

He has no hope of that, but we want him to think he does.

[I'm ALL Right!]

bump for later

[concerned about politics]

If we reveal them, three things happen: 1. The chemical weapons, every one of them they have, comes at us;

AND thousands of Iraqi citizens who get in the way, and it will be considered OUR fault.

[XJarhead]

There is a big difference between "the regime" wanting to use those weapons, and battlefield commanders actually using them. The reality is that once they use those weapons against us, we will get very, very nasty. And since such weapons probably will have a fairly limited tactical effect, it's quite a risk for them to use them.

I think we announce them if we get them, if only to shut up much of the rest of the world. Hey, the bottom line is that as we get closer to Baghdad, sooner or later the regime is going to figure out it has nothing left to lose. So we're gonna reach the point you worry about anyway. The key is whether the army will agree to use them, and I think world opinion may matter on that.