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BUBBLES PROMPT CLIMATE-CHANGE RETHINK
Nature ^ | 14 March 2003 | TOM CLARKE

Posted on 03/19/2003 11:44:14 AM PST by Mike Darancette

Carbon dioxide certainly warms our planet, but it might not turn on the heat, reveals a new analysis of ancient Antarctic ice.

"Our data suggest that the warming came first, then carbon dioxide increased," says Jean Jouzel of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute in Gif-sur-Yvette, France1. Something else - probably extraterrestrial - got the warming going, his team concludes.

Aside from water vapour, carbon dioxide is the major warming influence on our planet. But it's hard to work out which comes first: a rise in carbon dioxide levels or a slight warming. Why? Because even a slight temperature hike increases atmospheric carbon dioxide, through its effects on forests and oceans.

Pioneering a new technique, Jouzel's team has probed air bubbles trapped in 240,000- year-old ice laid down as snow when the Earth was warming up at the end of a massive ice age.

They compared the ratio of two forms of the atmospheric gas argon in the bubbles, and looked at their carbon dioxide content. The argon ratio changes relative to the temperature of the air at the time it was trapped, the team argues.

They saw a temperature rise, followed by greater warming caused by rising carbon dioxide levels, that tallied well with evidence from the surrounding ice and other climate records. "We were surprised to find that these indicators agreed," says Jouzel.

Other researchers are also surprised. Other ice records had already pointed to warming as a trigger for further warming. However, vagaries in the rate at which ice is deposited in different parts of the Antarctic makes firm conclusions about the actual age of bubbles difficult to draw, says glaciologist Martin Siegert of the University of Bristol, UK.

"Making sense of individual ice records is hard enough, let alone getting them to agree with others," he says. If they are right, however, Jouzel's team has found good evidence for heat, not gas, beginning the end of an ice age.

It doesn't change our understanding of today's global warming, Siegert says - carbon dioxide levels are already increasing, so what got it started is somewhat irrelevant.

Nor does it mean that carbon dioxide is any less important as a greenhouse gas. Like many researchers before, Jouzel's team argues that a subtle shift in the Earth's orbit around the Sun triggered a minute amount of warming. "But you need carbon dioxide to amplify the effect," Jouzel says.

It could, however, be important for the future. Climate models, such as those used to forecast change, are based on past events, so pinning down what went on improves their predictive power. Jouzel's team is now checking more recent records to see what preceded other ice ages.

References Caillon, N. et al. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across termination III. Science, 299, 1728 - 1731, (2002). |Homepage|

© Nature News Service / Macmillan Magazines Ltd 2003


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: co2; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
Warming comes before CO2 increases ---- Interesting.
1 posted on 03/19/2003 11:44:15 AM PST by Mike Darancette
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To: Mike Darancette
Someone needs to mail this to Hans Blix. I know he's worried about it.
2 posted on 03/19/2003 11:45:38 AM PST by RAT Patrol
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To: Mike Darancette
Let's not wait for hard facts, let's go ahead and spend billions of dollars trying to fix what we THINK is a problem. /sarcasm
3 posted on 03/19/2003 11:47:59 AM PST by TX Bluebonnet
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To: RAT Patrol
LOL!
4 posted on 03/19/2003 11:51:05 AM PST by talleyman (Chiraque is a jacques-itch)
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To: Mike Darancette
The dot.com bubble, the credit bubble, the housing bubble, now the gas bubble.

b . u . r . p

ahh!

5 posted on 03/19/2003 11:53:16 AM PST by RightWhale (Theorems link concepts: Proofs establish links)
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To: RAT Patrol
Maybe Hans Blix can convince the Security Council to pass a resolution telling the Earth to stop warming up or face serious consequences.
6 posted on 03/19/2003 11:54:44 AM PST by TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig
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To: TX Bluebonnet
Let's not wait for hard facts, let's go ahead and spend billions of dollars trying to fix what we THINK is a problem. /sarcasm

uh well be honest, thats what we're doing in Iraq also. if the risks of inaction are too high in iraq, maybe the risks of inaction could also be too high for the ecology.

that motive isnt a very safe one to condemn, try others..

7 posted on 03/19/2003 11:54:55 AM PST by zeromus
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To: big ern
LOL...oh, no, not (duck, cover) "serious consequences."
8 posted on 03/19/2003 11:56:47 AM PST by RAT Patrol
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To: Mike Darancette
" Warming comes before CO2 increases ---- Interesting. "

Its called volcanic activity.
9 posted on 03/19/2003 12:01:51 PM PST by oldcomputerguy
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To: oldcomputerguy
From today's AP.

Study Suggests Greenhouse Gases Affect Atmospheric Pressure

By William McCall Associated Press Writer

Published: Mar 19, 2003

10 posted on 03/19/2003 12:04:51 PM PST by Lance Romance (.)
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To: Mike Darancette
That fact has been known for years know, and it occurs in relatively quick geologic cycles. Earlier studies were based on carbon decay in sea fossil populations. More fossils equals warmer waters, and after the population started to expand (ie temperature increased), increases of carbon dioxide were found to follow in later dated samples.(Or something to that effect -- I'm not a gelogist, nor do I play one on TV)

I used to have a real nice report on it, but I lost it when I left my old job.
11 posted on 03/19/2003 12:05:17 PM PST by jae471
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To: Mike Darancette
Bump
12 posted on 03/19/2003 12:06:18 PM PST by Fiddlstix
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To: oldcomputerguy
For quite some time, my attention has been occupied with the perplexing question: What came first, the chicken or the egg? Now I can see that I have a new question for consideration. Life is so complicated.
13 posted on 03/19/2003 12:10:05 PM PST by meenie
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To: jae471
See US News and World Report, March 17 issue on "smoky shroud over Asia." The Red Chinese are causing Global Warming.
14 posted on 03/19/2003 12:10:09 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: *Global Warming Hoax
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list
15 posted on 03/19/2003 12:17:15 PM PST by Libertarianize the GOP (Ideas have consequences)
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To: Mike Darancette
I think this report is scary because it shows a new Leftist tactic. Scientists can now claim that Global Warming is not initiated by mankind and evil SUVs. They can recognize that Global Warming is a phenomenon of the Sun (Mars is warming too). BUT having said that we are not the cause, they then assert that we making things worse.

With this tactic, they can make many ludicrous claims about man's effect on climate change . If the claim is shown to be false, (temperature rise prior to, say, 1900) well ... THAT data must have been caused by the sun. But if the sensible people have no counter-argument, then some of these ludicrous claims can dangle out there and be difficult to disprove. We get into the situation of having to prove a negative, while the eco-terrorists have an easy out for any wild theories ("Oh, you mean it wasn't man that time? [shrug] Must have been the sun, I guess.")

16 posted on 03/19/2003 12:20:56 PM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: Mike Darancette
Interesting but not suprising. The only thing that can warm the Earth significantly are geological or cosmological processes. Man's activity is a pimple on these trends.
17 posted on 03/19/2003 12:47:33 PM PST by eno_
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To: meenie
"Life is so complicated. "

Actually life is not complicated at all, it is just shifting out the wheat from the chaff.
18 posted on 03/19/2003 1:06:09 PM PST by oldcomputerguy
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To: oldcomputerguy
Sorry... sifting would look a little better in there I think.
19 posted on 03/19/2003 1:08:55 PM PST by oldcomputerguy
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