Bush Lead Over Potential Democratic Challengers Fades, Gore Surfaces as the Leading Contender

Zogby ^ | 3/18/03

[areafiftyone]

President George W. Bush would win re-election over most of his potential Democratic opponents, according to a Zogby America poll of 1,129 likely voters conducted March 14-15.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.0%.

The president enjoys a majority or near-majority of support against all contenders, although the election is 20 months away.  He has an average 12-point lead over the current leaders in polling: Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (50%-38%), Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (50%-38%), and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (49%-36%).

Compared to similar polling January 4-6, 2003 of 1,001 likely voters, the gap appears to be closing.  In that poll, Bush numbers were in the mid-50s, and his Democratic opponents were in the low 30s, a 24-point lead compared to his current 12 points.  He would have bested Kerry 54%-31%, Lieberman 55%-31%, Gephardt 55%-31%, and SD Senator Thomas Daschle, 54%-30%.  Daschle announced on January 7 that he would not be a candidate in the 2004 election. 

Bush also has at least a 20-point lead over the next tier of potentials: former Colorado Senator Gary Hart (54%-31%), North Carolina Senator John Edwards (51%-32%), former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (52%-31%), former Illinois Senator and Ambassador Carol Mosley Braun (54%-30%), civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton (58%-25%), former NATO Commander General Wesley Clark (52%-28%), and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (52%-26%).  Clark has not yet declared his candidacy, but is touted as a potential candidate.

Two other prominent Democrats who have not yet thrown their hats into the ring, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore, also fall short in a theoretical match-up against President Bush:  he would best both Clinton (53%-39%) and Gore (51%-42%), although Gore comes closer than any other Democrat, declared or undeclared.

President Bush’s job performance rating has remained steady in recent Zogby America polls, with 54% of likely voters saying it is excellent or good, and 46% grading it fair or poor.  Nearly half (48%) of respondents say they feel the country is headed in the right direction, while 44% say it is going in the wrong direction, and 8% are not sure.

[Sam Cree]

I could see Bush having some problems, though at this point it's impossible for me to really predict. IMO, if we do not end things in Iraq very quickly and without too many casualties, he is very likely in trouble.

Even if we do, the anti Bush movement, in spite of being organized by commies, has been allowed to gain alot of momentum, perhaps in part because media have not reported in full who the organizers really are. Still, it's a reality.

Additionally, the Dems, after standing behind the Clintons, have given up principle altogether and have assumed what seems like an unprecedented and dangerous ruthlessness, reminiscent of the Bosheviks, in their pursuit of power.

I only hope that we can be very successful in the next few days and that Bush only has the ecomomy to worry about.

[InspiredPath1]

I recall that last week Chris Matthews was touting some poll that showed Bush losing to "any un-named democrat". I wonder if any media outlet will tout this poll, or do they only give us the bad news?

[Diogenesis]

If this is ZOGBY, it is serous.

[thermodynamics]

must be that Jamaican stuff... We'll know Zogby's TRUE Color after this 2 week war. When our GREAT Leader's numbers are in the 80's

[swheats]

Gore is the only one we haven't heard from. Enters stage left to spew more sadness over how Bush has handled diplomacy.

[Paul L. Hepperla]

The fact their polling about 2004 right now and releasing this info today is a bit disconcerting. If I believe Bush to be the type of man he is, he could utterly care less today whether he wins in '04.

He has more important things to do.

[Libertarian444]

Yah. Ol' Zogs ought to take this poll in a week or two.

I agree - love the timing of this "poll."

[sonofatpatcher2]

Sporting his newest image makeover at a "Kiss Me, I'm Irish/Tennessean" kegger, Algore offered surprise when told the DemocRats wanted him to run again against W

[UncleSamUSA]

Zogby better lay off the crack pipe... his polls are now starting to resemble melted taffy.

[Mr. K]

LOL- i thought this WAS a humor post I expected to see 'The Onion'

[Conspiracy Guy]

That's like 2028. He'll be a geezer for sure at that point. Heck I'll be 74.

[YaYa123]

Al Who?

Just think how irrelevant Al Gore is, invisible even. And if democrat voters think he's their best shot, I'd say President Bush is assured of his second term.

[ijcr]

President Bush's diplomacy did not FAIL. UN resolution 1441
passed 15-0. There was obstruction by a so called ally, but no stumble. The economy is doing fine, tax cuts will lead to greater growth---they always do--- Saddamm is toast, Al Queda is rapidly being wrapped up, Iran will democratise,


Within two weeks Iraqi scientists will begin to release info
on Saddamm's WMD and Syria. Statehood is on the cards for the Palestinians...which will enable Israel to declare war
on a terrorist state. Saudi Arabia is changing and dealing with Wahhabism, Hezbullah will be destroyed in the Beka Valley. Hamas is struggling in the camps. Islamic Jihad is
facing financial and equipment problems.


Serbian, Ukranian and Belarus arms shipments to terrorists are being intercepted. North Korea is being dumped in the lap of the UN security council. In two weeks gas prices will come down, Americans will return to shopping and eating out.

The Senate is stalled by the Estrada nomination...this is good.

[CatoRenasci]

Works for me.

[aristeides]

Isn't there some rule against polling on a weekend?

[Joe Boucher]

Can't blame them for not liking their current batch of very little men and one dumbass black woman. But recycle algore?
Thanks dems. I want many more republicans in office instead of liberal anti American dumbass dems. Go for a more radically liberal slate this time. And this time I won't have to go to Palm Beach to protest recounts.

[KickRightRudder]

and a victory in 2000, heh-heh-heh-heh

[PhiKapMom]

The week of 9 March 2003 was not a good week for Pres Bush -- in fact, it was louzy with the Brits and all their rewriting that idiotic 2nd resolution that kept getting watered down. By the time they came out with the six benchmarks I personally had it with the President including his making calls begging 3rd world countries to vote with the United States.

Now if I had with the President and his propping up up Blair which made Bush look weak, I cannot imagine what others were thinking!

[Chancellor Palpatine]

Go, Al, Go!

[browardchad]

I live in the New York metropolitan area, most of the people I know are liberal democrats. They don't like Bush at all, but they sure don't think Gore is competent to be president now

I concur -- and I live in a Democratic h-hole. What does Gore (who even Dems think would be a rotten wartime Pres) being the top contender say about the other candidates? Think about it, because Zogby certainly isn't.