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Rallying the Nation: Support for War Spikes as Bush Sets a Deadline
ABCNews.com ^ | 3/18/03 | Gary Langer

Posted on 03/18/2003 7:24:49 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!

Analysis
By Gary Langer

ABCNEWS.com

March 18

— Americans' support for war with Iraq and approval of President Bush's handling of the crisis both spiked Monday night, the kind of rally in public opinion that customarily accompanies the start of military action.


In an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll conducted after Bush set a two-day deadline for Saddam Hussein to leave the country, 71 percent say they would support war, up a dozen points from a week ago; and 64 percent approve of Bush's work on the confrontation with Iraq, the most in six months.

Accompanying this support is a broad consensus that diplomacy has run its course. Seventy-two percent say the United States has done enough to try to win international backing — a number that has grown steadily over the months, even as diplomacy flailed.

Indeed, a majority, 54 percent, now "strongly" supports war, sharply up from 40 percent last week and far outstripping the 19 percent who "strongly" oppose it. And most Democrats now support war, though Republicans continue to do so far more broadly and far more strongly. The biggest jump in support is among independents.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.

Across a range of measures, two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans now line up behind administration policy. Some of that represents the usual rally behind a president and his troops at the door to war.

But the poll also shows frustration with the diplomatic process: While the public had broadly desired U.N. backing for war, 66 percent support Bush's decision to abandon a Security Council vote, and 75 percent disapprove of the United Nations' handling of the issue, up 19 points from a few weeks ago.

Cost vs. Benefit

Some of the support, too, represents a perceived absence of alternatives. Previous polling has shown that a steady eight in 10 Americans see Iraq as a threat to the United States. And in this poll, 71 percent say they see war as the only practical way to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam from power.

Additionally, the short-term costs are balanced by some perception of long-term benefits. In the short term, 62 percent think war with Iraq will increase the risk of further terrorism in the United States. In the long-term, however, far fewer — 39 percent — see an increased risk of terrorism, while 48 percent think war will decrease the risk.

Still, that's less than an overwhelming belief that war with Iraq ultimately will reduce the threat of terrorism — potentially a critical piece of the cost-benefit equation that will determine future support for the administration as events proceed.

Today, among people who think war will reduce terrorism in the long term, 88 percent support it; among those who think it will increase terrorism, by contrast, support drops off to 47 percent.


Long-Term Effect

Support War Oppose War

Think War Will Decrease Terrorism (48%) 88% 10%

Think War Will Increase Terrorism (39%) 47% 49%

Confidence

It's true, too, that faith in Bush is broad, but not supreme. Sixty-nine percent of Americans say they are confident his policy on Iraq is the right one for the country — but fewer, just over four in 10, are "very confident" that is the case.

Maintaining public confidence is a huge factor for Bush: today there is a 69-point gap in support for war between those who are confident in his policy and those who aren't. Confidence in Bush's policy, naturally, is weakest by far among Democrats.

As things stand, though, Bush does hold majority support across the board. Not only do 71 percent support going to war, but as many specifically support doing so right after the 48-hour deadline, and about as many say that the two-day deadline is "about right" in length. Just 28 percent say they would prefer to wait longer.

In another example of the extent to which the public is riled, 74 percent oppose offering amnesty from prosecution to Saddam and his sons in exchange for their leaving the country.

The U.N. and France

The majority is in a less punitive mood when it comes to France, and especially the United Nations. Seventy percent say the United States should continue its usual relationship with the United Nations, and a smaller majority, 57 percent, favors continuing usual relations with France, regardless of its opposition to U.S. policy on Iraq.

Groups

Despite the increase in general support, some sharp divisions on Bush's policy remain.

Eighty-two percent of men support war with Iraq, compared to 60 percent of women. And support ranges from 58 percent of Democrats (up 12 points since last week) to a near-unanimous 93 percent of Republicans (up seven points, with little room left to grow).

As noted, support for war advanced most steeply among independents, from 50 percent last week to 67 percent now, a 17-point jump.

There's somewhat less partisanship when it comes to the United Nations' handling of the situation. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats, 77 percent of independents and 87 percent of Republicans disapprove.

Audience

Finally, the poll underscores the president's ability to marshal a huge audience in times of crisis: Seventy-two percent of Americans say they watched or listened to his address Monday night.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 17, 2003, among a random national sample of 510 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.

Copyright © 2002 ABC News Internet Ventures.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: asbush; endgameapproaches; pollsoniraq; rallying; setsadeadline; spikes; supportforwar; thenation; warlist
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1 posted on 03/18/2003 7:24:50 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
If this war is successful, opposition will shrink to the hard core 20% anti-Bush liberal nuts. That would be a miracle.
2 posted on 03/18/2003 7:26:09 AM PST by goldstategop
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
All network polls and Gallup were way up last week, and yesterday, BEFORE the speech.
3 posted on 03/18/2003 7:26:47 AM PST by roses of sharon
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To: goldstategop
Saddam's son rejects Bush ultimatum

Saddam's son Odai rejects Bush ultimatum

Iraq: World Leaders React to Bush Ultimatum


4 posted on 03/18/2003 7:31:17 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: goldstategop; ken5050; Alissa; seamole; MississippiMan; WOSG; basque69; MinorityRepublican; ...
Many stations last night had on in-depth gulf war history and prior history to Saddam gaining power in 1979. One thing that ABC News reported in a documentary was that the Kurds in Iraq were abandoned by us many times over the years.They live under democracy and have been screwed. Why was it that when the Kurds who were begging for helo cover to stay as an existing peaceful democracy were abandoned by us and rich Kuwait was totally given help.

Will the Kurds be considered this time around, will we utilize them while protecting them? They for many years have been trying to do what we claim to want to do with Iraq,live peacefully under a non dictatorship government.The Kurds of iraq are concerned about Turkey attacking them while we are attacking Iraq.

Also in this ABC News it was reported that the U.S. gave Turkey billions of dollars so we can use a patch of their land to attack Iraq. The Kurds are concerned. Does anyone care about them? What's the story on this? Was this ABC News report accurate? Anyone know more about this?

5 posted on 03/18/2003 7:36:02 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: goldstategop

Bear in mind that one of the reasons this war must be dispensed with is that the economy is in a holding state until the campaign is underway.

Bush will be reelected if the economy is in a demonstrable recovery by October of 2004. If not, he will not. Everything still depends on what Harry Truman called the "price of hogs in St. Louis". It is vital for the national security of this country that this man and his national security team be returned to office. The people on the other side are clueless, as was shown by the last time they were in power.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

6 posted on 03/18/2003 7:38:31 AM PST by section9 (The girl in the picture is Major Motoko Kusanagi from "Ghost In the Shell".)
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To: goldstategop

7 posted on 03/18/2003 7:38:59 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: section9
Saddam's Inner Circle


8 posted on 03/18/2003 7:41:27 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!; Dog Gone; Grampa Dave
All's well that ends well.

Boots & Coots/International Well Control sure shot up yesterday!!! Up 140%!!! (still jumping today)

9 posted on 03/18/2003 7:41:54 AM PST by SierraWasp (I am witholding my tagline till the war begins and ends with an unmistakeable conclusion!!!)
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
With decision made, let’s get it done
10 posted on 03/18/2003 7:44:43 AM PST by mikeb704
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To: mikeb704; All

Click Here


11 posted on 03/18/2003 7:48:06 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
The media will attempt to lower these support numbers ASAP.
12 posted on 03/18/2003 7:48:23 AM PST by tallhappy
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To: goldstategop; hchutch; Ernest_at_the_Beach; rintense; Dog; Dog Gone; blackie; Mo1; Miss Marple; ...
Does that 20 % include the so called conservatives who hate our President even more than the left wing whackos?

They represent about 1% of the population and about 3% of Free Republic. Yesterday, they were still posting that they wouldn't vote for President GW for the way he has handled this situation. They sound like teenagers when their parents ask them to be normal humans.

Of course none of them voted for him in the first place. If I had a quarter for every reply posted that they will not vote for him, I could finance Free Republic for a couple of years.

Their heroes are Pat and Harry, two scumbags who write opeds that make their buddy Soddomite grin. Yet they condemn our president.
13 posted on 03/18/2003 7:49:59 AM PST by Grampa Dave (Stamp out Freepathons! Stop being a Freep Loader! Become a monthly donor!)
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
Re your 5, see my 12 (written before I'd read your 5).
14 posted on 03/18/2003 7:50:37 AM PST by tallhappy
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
"It is of no concern,I have assurances from the Supreme Chancellor George W. Bush that the Iraqi Congress will be banned permanently......begin landing your troops......."
15 posted on 03/18/2003 7:52:50 AM PST by Senator_Palpatine
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To: section9
Chris, I could not have said it better myself. We must ensure, by praying and working hard, that this good man and his excellent administration be returned to office for four more years. God help us if one these democrats running for office gets elected. It would be a disaster.
16 posted on 03/18/2003 7:53:45 AM PST by rep-always
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To: Grampa Dave; Luis Gonzalez; JohnHuang2; mhking; rdb3; Miss Marple; Poohbah; Dog; colorado tanker
Agreed. There is a faction of conservatives that seem to treat any disagreement with their agenda as a sign that one is not "truly" conservative. Often it will be on one pet issue.

If these Suslov conservatives didn't exist, the Left would have to invent them.
17 posted on 03/18/2003 8:08:41 AM PST by hchutch ("Last suckers crossed, Syndicate shot'em up" - Ice-T, "I'm Your Pusher")
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To: hchutch; All
I hope to God and pray that when we go deep in Bagdad and the inner circle, we rescue and find Scott Speicher alive!
18 posted on 03/18/2003 8:29:48 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: tallhappy
ABC NEWSlast night also seemed to take great delight in showing footage of the British parlament of (I think the one that resigned) saying something like this- "If the preganant chads in Florida had gone Al Gore's way, would we be here with this mess"?
19 posted on 03/18/2003 8:34:16 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
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To: TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
A good part of the recent trouble with Turkey was over what to do with the Kurds. The Turks and Kurds have a long history of annimosity, and the Turks want to make sure the Kurds do not grow into a bigger threat to Turkey.

We have traditionally supported Turkey in the past, which meant turning a blind eye to the Kurd problem. That the Kurds supported terrorism and chose a communist political model in the past made Turkey the logical side to back. It was probably not possible to stay neutral in this dispute, and we sided with Turkey.

However, Turkey's failure to support us this time around is likely to change the equation in favor of the Kurds. Good news for the Kurds, bad news for Turkey.

Unlike most middle eastern countries, the Turks are fierce fighters. They are Muslim, but not Arab, and would have been worth keeping as an ally. However, when the chips were down, Turkey stabbed us in the back. Turkey is no friend of the U.S.

If Turkey eventually grants us overfly rights, it will likely mean we have reached some kind of agreement with them regarding how the Kurds will be handled. If such an agreement cannot be reached, the situation could lead to a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq, with an associated risk of war between Turkey and the U.S. We have already publicly warned Turkey against this.
20 posted on 03/18/2003 8:45:02 AM PST by EternalHope (France and Germany are with the terrorists.)
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