Posted on 03/18/2003 7:24:49 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
Analysis
By Gary Langer
— Americans' support for war with Iraq and approval of President Bush's handling of the crisis both spiked Monday night, the kind of rally in public opinion that customarily accompanies the start of military action.
In an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll conducted after Bush set a two-day deadline for Saddam Hussein to leave the country, 71 percent say they would support war, up a dozen points from a week ago; and 64 percent approve of Bush's work on the confrontation with Iraq, the most in six months.
Accompanying this support is a broad consensus that diplomacy has run its course. Seventy-two percent say the United States has done enough to try to win international backing — a number that has grown steadily over the months, even as diplomacy flailed.
Indeed, a majority, 54 percent, now "strongly" supports war, sharply up from 40 percent last week and far outstripping the 19 percent who "strongly" oppose it. And most Democrats now support war, though Republicans continue to do so far more broadly and far more strongly. The biggest jump in support is among independents.
Across a range of measures, two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans now line up behind administration policy. Some of that represents the usual rally behind a president and his troops at the door to war.
But the poll also shows frustration with the diplomatic process: While the public had broadly desired U.N. backing for war, 66 percent support Bush's decision to abandon a Security Council vote, and 75 percent disapprove of the United Nations' handling of the issue, up 19 points from a few weeks ago.
Cost vs. Benefit
Some of the support, too, represents a perceived absence of alternatives. Previous polling has shown that a steady eight in 10 Americans see Iraq as a threat to the United States. And in this poll, 71 percent say they see war as the only practical way to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam from power.
Additionally, the short-term costs are balanced by some perception of long-term benefits. In the short term, 62 percent think war with Iraq will increase the risk of further terrorism in the United States. In the long-term, however, far fewer — 39 percent — see an increased risk of terrorism, while 48 percent think war will decrease the risk.
Still, that's less than an overwhelming belief that war with Iraq ultimately will reduce the threat of terrorism — potentially a critical piece of the cost-benefit equation that will determine future support for the administration as events proceed.
Today, among people who think war will reduce terrorism in the long term, 88 percent support it; among those who think it will increase terrorism, by contrast, support drops off to 47 percent.
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| Think War Will Decrease Terrorism (48%) | 88% | 10% | ||||||||||||
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| Think War Will Increase Terrorism (39%) | 47% | 49% | ||||||||||||
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Confidence
It's true, too, that faith in Bush is broad, but not supreme. Sixty-nine percent of Americans say they are confident his policy on Iraq is the right one for the country — but fewer, just over four in 10, are "very confident" that is the case.
Maintaining public confidence is a huge factor for Bush: today there is a 69-point gap in support for war between those who are confident in his policy and those who aren't. Confidence in Bush's policy, naturally, is weakest by far among Democrats.
As things stand, though, Bush does hold majority support across the board. Not only do 71 percent support going to war, but as many specifically support doing so right after the 48-hour deadline, and about as many say that the two-day deadline is "about right" in length. Just 28 percent say they would prefer to wait longer.
In another example of the extent to which the public is riled, 74 percent oppose offering amnesty from prosecution to Saddam and his sons in exchange for their leaving the country.
The U.N. and France
The majority is in a less punitive mood when it comes to France, and especially the United Nations. Seventy percent say the United States should continue its usual relationship with the United Nations, and a smaller majority, 57 percent, favors continuing usual relations with France, regardless of its opposition to U.S. policy on Iraq.
Groups
Despite the increase in general support, some sharp divisions on Bush's policy remain.
Eighty-two percent of men support war with Iraq, compared to 60 percent of women. And support ranges from 58 percent of Democrats (up 12 points since last week) to a near-unanimous 93 percent of Republicans (up seven points, with little room left to grow).
As noted, support for war advanced most steeply among independents, from 50 percent last week to 67 percent now, a 17-point jump.
There's somewhat less partisanship when it comes to the United Nations' handling of the situation. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats, 77 percent of independents and 87 percent of Republicans disapprove.
Audience
Finally, the poll underscores the president's ability to marshal a huge audience in times of crisis: Seventy-two percent of Americans say they watched or listened to his address Monday night.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 17, 2003, among a random national sample of 510 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.
| Copyright © 2002 ABC News Internet Ventures. |
Will the Kurds be considered this time around, will we utilize them while protecting them? They for many years have been trying to do what we claim to want to do with Iraq,live peacefully under a non dictatorship government.The Kurds of iraq are concerned about Turkey attacking them while we are attacking Iraq.
Also in this ABC News it was reported that the U.S. gave Turkey billions of dollars so we can use a patch of their land to attack Iraq. The Kurds are concerned. Does anyone care about them? What's the story on this? Was this ABC News report accurate? Anyone know more about this?
Bear in mind that one of the reasons this war must be dispensed with is that the economy is in a holding state until the campaign is underway.
Bush will be reelected if the economy is in a demonstrable recovery by October of 2004. If not, he will not. Everything still depends on what Harry Truman called the "price of hogs in St. Louis". It is vital for the national security of this country that this man and his national security team be returned to office. The people on the other side are clueless, as was shown by the last time they were in power.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Boots & Coots/International Well Control sure shot up yesterday!!! Up 140%!!! (still jumping today)
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