Posted on 03/18/2003 7:24:49 AM PST by TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!
Analysis
By Gary Langer
— Americans' support for war with Iraq and approval of President Bush's handling of the crisis both spiked Monday night, the kind of rally in public opinion that customarily accompanies the start of military action.
In an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll conducted after Bush set a two-day deadline for Saddam Hussein to leave the country, 71 percent say they would support war, up a dozen points from a week ago; and 64 percent approve of Bush's work on the confrontation with Iraq, the most in six months.
Accompanying this support is a broad consensus that diplomacy has run its course. Seventy-two percent say the United States has done enough to try to win international backing — a number that has grown steadily over the months, even as diplomacy flailed.
Indeed, a majority, 54 percent, now "strongly" supports war, sharply up from 40 percent last week and far outstripping the 19 percent who "strongly" oppose it. And most Democrats now support war, though Republicans continue to do so far more broadly and far more strongly. The biggest jump in support is among independents.
Across a range of measures, two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans now line up behind administration policy. Some of that represents the usual rally behind a president and his troops at the door to war.
But the poll also shows frustration with the diplomatic process: While the public had broadly desired U.N. backing for war, 66 percent support Bush's decision to abandon a Security Council vote, and 75 percent disapprove of the United Nations' handling of the issue, up 19 points from a few weeks ago.
Cost vs. Benefit
Some of the support, too, represents a perceived absence of alternatives. Previous polling has shown that a steady eight in 10 Americans see Iraq as a threat to the United States. And in this poll, 71 percent say they see war as the only practical way to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam from power.
Additionally, the short-term costs are balanced by some perception of long-term benefits. In the short term, 62 percent think war with Iraq will increase the risk of further terrorism in the United States. In the long-term, however, far fewer — 39 percent — see an increased risk of terrorism, while 48 percent think war will decrease the risk.
Still, that's less than an overwhelming belief that war with Iraq ultimately will reduce the threat of terrorism — potentially a critical piece of the cost-benefit equation that will determine future support for the administration as events proceed.
Today, among people who think war will reduce terrorism in the long term, 88 percent support it; among those who think it will increase terrorism, by contrast, support drops off to 47 percent.
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| Think War Will Decrease Terrorism (48%) | 88% | 10% | ||||||||||||
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| Think War Will Increase Terrorism (39%) | 47% | 49% | ||||||||||||
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Confidence
It's true, too, that faith in Bush is broad, but not supreme. Sixty-nine percent of Americans say they are confident his policy on Iraq is the right one for the country — but fewer, just over four in 10, are "very confident" that is the case.
Maintaining public confidence is a huge factor for Bush: today there is a 69-point gap in support for war between those who are confident in his policy and those who aren't. Confidence in Bush's policy, naturally, is weakest by far among Democrats.
As things stand, though, Bush does hold majority support across the board. Not only do 71 percent support going to war, but as many specifically support doing so right after the 48-hour deadline, and about as many say that the two-day deadline is "about right" in length. Just 28 percent say they would prefer to wait longer.
In another example of the extent to which the public is riled, 74 percent oppose offering amnesty from prosecution to Saddam and his sons in exchange for their leaving the country.
The U.N. and France
The majority is in a less punitive mood when it comes to France, and especially the United Nations. Seventy percent say the United States should continue its usual relationship with the United Nations, and a smaller majority, 57 percent, favors continuing usual relations with France, regardless of its opposition to U.S. policy on Iraq.
Groups
Despite the increase in general support, some sharp divisions on Bush's policy remain.
Eighty-two percent of men support war with Iraq, compared to 60 percent of women. And support ranges from 58 percent of Democrats (up 12 points since last week) to a near-unanimous 93 percent of Republicans (up seven points, with little room left to grow).
As noted, support for war advanced most steeply among independents, from 50 percent last week to 67 percent now, a 17-point jump.
There's somewhat less partisanship when it comes to the United Nations' handling of the situation. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats, 77 percent of independents and 87 percent of Republicans disapprove.
Audience
Finally, the poll underscores the president's ability to marshal a huge audience in times of crisis: Seventy-two percent of Americans say they watched or listened to his address Monday night.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 17, 2003, among a random national sample of 510 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.
| Copyright © 2002 ABC News Internet Ventures. |
We will always have a little fringe group of hateful whiners, who actually hate themselves more than anyone else.
I thank them for sharing their fantasies from the twilight zone and for the chuckles.
I just refuse to share their misery with them.
It's time to bomb Saddam!
Let's Roll!
We left the Kurds hanging last time around - to our undying shame. It's been reported rather extensively on this forum in recent weeks. The Kurds ARE concerned the Turkish military will attack them. The US is aware of that very real fear.
US refused to play ball with Turkish demands regarding Iraq this time around. Especially the parts about Turkish troop participation :fears the Turks would go after the Kurds, the US would have to turn on the Turks to save the Kurds - a war within a war - and Turkish 'participation' in a post Saddam government (again, legitimate concern for the Kurds)
As a result, Turkey refused access to their airspace and are pretty much off the field this time around. Turkey still plans to put troops on the border and promises to go no deeper into Northern Iraq than 20 miles. Turkey has it's own concernes about protecting it's borders. Still, the situation is very understandably tense.
Absolutely right!
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