When Will The War Happen

me | 03-17-03 | wattsup

[U S Army EOD]

My God!!!! Have we taken Paris already.

[spodefly]

When Will The War Happen

Weeks, not months.

[cibco]

Actually, this war started months ago... the special forces have been operating for a long time now. What we are looking towards is the final BANG and the outcome. It will be interesting.

[blondee123]

Wondering if our alert status will go up tomorrow to Orange?

[Jerry W. Howard]

"What if Sadamn won't let them leave?"

What if Saddam won't let the UN inspectors leave??
Why wouldn't he. The Un has been letting him do what he wants to for 12 years, surely he will return the favor.

Besides, he thinks he won the last war and will win this one the same way (by us blinking before we get him) so he probably expects to need the same UN help to rearm next time that he got this time.

(But perhaps we won't blink this time)

[July 4th]

"Shock 'n Awe. It's not just a summer camp in Michigan."

-Brit Hume

[FredZarguna]

It will start when FoxNews and CNN have their logos and theme music ready, and not one minute sooner.

[Defiant]

Desert Storm started days before GHW Bush announced it.

In Desert Storm, Saddam had a deadline. The war started within a day or two after the deadline passed. To preserve some surprise, they went right after the deadline, while sending signals that we were going to futz around for a few days.

Here, there's no deadline, and Saddam is not stupid enough to assume that we will announce the start time to him. However, he's going to be looking at Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday this week as more likely start dates. I say go Monday night. Of course, I also said we should go last September, and Colin Powell has proven me right.

[Young Rhino]

When Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are in Baghdad pursuing their legacies...Bye Bye Bubbas.


well, one can always dream.

[Psycho_Runner]

Debka is reporting Tuesday AM, Beautiful Baghdad time. Actually 4:00am Baghbad time is 5:00pm eastern time.

[Steven W.]

I thought Monday night provides the best cover as well. Unfortunately it cuts past time of the final spike in the UN IMO. Bush needs to give the UN the whole day and speak to the nation after it's exhausted tomorrow night. By the time that happens it will already be early morning in Iraq & we own the night. Plus Blair has his appearance before Parliament on Tuesday AM - he probably needs to wait until after that thought it's not out of the question. So maybe Tuesday is better and, rather than speak to nation on Monday night, pre-attack, lead Saddam to believe the speech is going to be the big pre-attack speech when it's really the "liberation of Iraq has begun" speech.

[laz17]

It's not like the writing isn't all over the wall by now.

Yes, the writing is on the wall. And it says:

MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN

[section9]

When Will The War Happen?

Give the units in Kuwait 48 hours to strike tents and load up from Midnight tonight, EST. The feast of St. Patrick is the last day of "peace" for some time to come, and the decision has been made to go to war. That requires a lead time to key up everybody, distribute ammunition, top off the gas tanks, strike the tents at the forward bases, load ordinance on the first wave of attack aircraft, and get the Royal Marines Commandos' landing boats near the estuary of the Faw peninsula. A lot of stuff will automatically begin to happen after midnight.

Part of the complication is in the timing. If this thing is patterned after the campaign in France in May of 1940, then you can expect air and ground elements to move simultaneously. However, in advance of that will be air landings by elements of the 82nd Airborne Division and the 75th Ranger Regiment. Where they will land will give you a map into the outlines of Franks' campaign. If they're really ballsy, you'll see a huge airdrop at Saddam international near Baghdad in a very risky stroke reminiscent of Market Garden. I'm looking for the Rangers to try to capture the bridges over the Euphrates in series of "Orne River Bridge" landings. Very critical: they have to get the bridges before Saddam orders them to be blown.

The watchword? "Hold until relieved..."

Hold on to your gonads, people. This will be a hell of a ride.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Dog Gone]

Here, there's no deadline, and Saddam is not stupid enough to assume that we will announce the start time to him.

I expect Bush will deliver one, possibly this evening. The Ultimatum Speech will declare that the UN has failed, and that Saddam has 24-48 hours to leave. Regardless, we are coming in, with the only question being whether or not there will be resistance.

The whole world will wait tensely during the deadline period, and then nothing will happen. Maybe some distraction, diplomatic or otherwise, will be created.

A day later, after the Iraqi troops are thoroughly exhausted, and having shot every pigeon overhead for the last three days, we go.

[Jolly Rodgers]

Here, there's no deadline, and Saddam is not stupid enough to assume that we will announce the start time to him. However, he's going to be looking at Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday this week as more likely start dates. I say go Monday night.

If you pay attention, you'll realize that we've already been "going." Bombing missions in the "no-fly-zone" have been tripled and they are attacking far more than just anti-aircraft that fire on them. Special forces are already operating inside Iraqi territory in both the north and south. The war is in process. The only outstanding question is when the Shock-n-Awe bombing wave against civilian infrastructure targets will begin.

[Defiant]

If you pay attention, you'll realize that we've already been "going."

JR, I guess I'll just have to pay better attention in the future. Thanks for pointing out to me information that is all over FR about the start of low-level operations designed to support the attack when it comes. I never would have known that such things were going on, and would have just assumed that we were talking about the beginning of the formal attack with "shock and awe" operations in places like Baghdad and Tikrit. Silly me.

Good thing I have you to point it out for me.

[snickeroon]

I think it will be on the 18th (1+ 8 = 9) at a time that makes it obvious that an 11 is a clear message....Re: 911. Just a thought.

[Jolly Rodgers]

Be trite if that's your only excuse.