Posted on 03/16/2003 9:32:38 AM PST by Hoppean
A former military aide to General Norman Schwarzkopf has warned that a US-led war against Iraq could turn into a disaster that echoes the bloody debacle of Somalia rather than the relatively painless 1991 Gulf war.
Retired Colonel Mike Turner, who also served as military planner with the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes the Bush administration is ignoring potential risks – some that could cost the US dearly.
"There's a saying in military circles: We always fight the last war. It means that too much focus on past enemy behaviour can easily lead to misjudging an enemy capability in the future," he said.
"So I asked myself today which war will this be: Desert Storm or Somalia? In 1991, we had four iron-clad prerequisites for war with Iraq: a clear political end state, overwhelming force to achieve a quick and decisive victory, a viable Arab coalition to avoid empowering Arab extremists, and absolutely no Israeli involvement to avoid a global holy war.
"In Somalia, we ignored the most critical of these lessons. Mission creep turned our original objective of humanitarian aid into simply 'Get Aidid,' the Somali factional leader we were battling. We committed US troops to a high-risk military operation in an urban area with extraordinarily dangerous variables in play on the battlefield, and with insufficient firepower."
Colonel Turner said the US had made the mistake of fixing its sights early on ridding the world of Saddam Hussein. This plan had met stiff opposition from the uniformed staff within the Pentagon, but the administration had chosen this focus regardlessly.
Colonel Turner outlined a worst-case scenario: "Within hours of our attack, Saddam launches Scuds on Israel. Israel's government launches a full-scale attack on Iraq, creating a holy war. Saddam, threatened with his own survival, uses chemical and biological weapons and human shields. He torches his own oil fields, thousands of his own people are killed. Photos of US soldiers amid landscapes of Iraqi civilian bodies blanket the world press which aligns unanimously against the US."
He then envisaged the US left to administer a post-Saddam Iraq with minimal international co-operation and open to terror attacks from al- Qa'ida. North Korea could take advantage and start exporting nuclear weapons.
"These are not remote possibilities, but in my view reasonable, possibly even likely outcomes," he concluded.
Is this guy for real?
When a person uses a “weasel word” such as “could” with no further expansion or evidence, the paragraph should be dismissed.
Not a one of them has spent a day as a soldier,or ever been in combat.
I have never understood this position.
Bush has never had an abortion. Is he “qualified” to have an opinion on it, or to make policy on it?
Bush has never murdered, raped, or committed felonies. Is he “qualified” to have an opinion on them, or to make policy on them?
And so on . . .
BINGO!
It's easy to understand. I only post it when people talk about what a "brilliant" commander in chief or leader of our military Ali Bubba is,and even go to the extremes of saying people like him and Cheney know more about military matters than the Generals in the Pentagram.
This will most likely be my last response to you. I am answering my posts and checking on the thread I started,and then I'm outta here forever.
No,"IS" is the operative word. He said on MTP that the ONLY reason he is dropping his vocal opposition to the upcoming war is that it is going to happen anyhow,and he doesn't want to send any mixed messages about his support for the troops. Not that any sane person who knows anything at all about the man would ever think any different.
Hasta la vista, baby.
Who ever said that?
What is the function of a leader? Among other things, he enlists the help of experts. No one can know about everything, but a leader can make judgments (based on an experts' experiences and records), on his own observations, etc.
Don't be gone long, sneaky.
Anyone, and I repeat anyone, who has taken the time to view the readily available footage of the Allied siege of Berlin in 1945 would immediately conclude that even the hawks in the Pentagon wouldn't go there. I think the Russians alone lost 30,000 in the last 5 miles.
I also think those who are so ceratin the Saddam is so unpopular in his Shiah enclave in Baghdad are also sadly mistaken. He may be a monster but he's their monster.
The guidelines of this forum, are not evenly enforced, and I believe that you have been locked out without good cause, as well as without reasonable cause.
Like yourself, I am a veteran, but I am not a uniformed combat veteran; it was my fate by birth to have a ringside seat; something which almost all of this forum have not much interest to take into account, while considering your points.
I've attempted some observations, crudely at times, poorly written here and there (my apologies), that are purposely askew so as to deflect the curious, while still trying to help encourage further study.
I am no expert. I'm just a clerk; and I know what war is.
You have had a remarkable life, and it is a mistake for this forum to refuse your contributions. I wish to thank you for your wisdom, nevertheless.
Your concerns that we are rushing precipitously to occupy "Praque" are well founded.
Thank you.
Mike
You must be kidding. Comparing this with stalingrad is absurd. Only a few of the top dozen baathists have their lives and families at stake, for most men including the soldiers, their life will be better without Saddam. This is why soldiers are surrendering even before the war has started!
This will be more like a coup d'etat than a war. It will shock you how few friends Saddam has once he has lost the ability to rule by fear.
People like him couldn't fight his way out of a sandbox and blame the results on the quality of the sand. PS - I can come up with a scenario where everyone dies too. BFD.
This article was picked up by just about every left-wing outfit you can think of and broadcast world wide. However, if this guy was the planner he claims to have been he must have been a gopher. About the only Colonel Turner that seems to fit the description was a Lt. Colonel in the Air National Guard, Air Combat Command.
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