Posted on 03/15/2003 3:37:58 PM PST by MadIvan
BRITAIN and America are to issue a stark ultimatum to Saddam Hussein — get out of Iraq or face war later this week.
Saddam will be given "days" to flee into exile before a US-led military invasion begins, according to senior officials in Washington and London.
The details of the final warning will be discussed by George W Bush and Tony Blair at a summit with Jose Maria Aznar, the Spanish prime minister, in the Azores today.
While telephone diplomacy will continue in a last effort to get the support of a majority of the United Nations Security Council, the two leaders have agreed there is virtually no chance of winning a vote on a resolution to authorise the use of force. They have therefore determined to enforce "regime change" in Baghdad without a second resolution.
"Saddam will be given a short period of time to get out of Baghdad. If he fails to do that, military action will follow," one official said.
Blair met ministers at No 10 yesterday and an emergency cabinet meeting will be held tomorrow. The government will announce that Lord Goldsmith, the attorney-general, has advised that war without a second UN resolution would be legal. Labour whips expect a Commons debate on Iraq and vote on Tuesday.
The prospect of war without UN backing is expected to lead to the resignation of Robin Cook, the leader of the Commons, from the cabinet. Sources close to Cook said he would go if there was no second resolution. "He doesn't feel he can support military action without the clear, unambiguous support of the UN," said one.
Blair is now considering offering him a job as a European commissioner to replace Neil Kinnock or Chris Patten, who are due to leave Brussels next year.
Clare Short, the international development secretary, was still considering whether to resign after Blair urged her to remain in her post and support the rebuilding of Iraq. An aide said she had been encouraged by America's new Middle East peace plan, which the prime minister helped to initiate. Her "bottom line", however, remained a second resolution.
Blair's personal efforts last week appear to have eased some of the tensions in his party. There was speculation that Michael Meacher, the environment minister, might resign, but several ministerial aides who had warned they would go indicated yesterday they were reconsidering.
A cabinet source said that while "deep divisions" remained, the past week had seen a "mood swing". Rebel leaders predict they will attract 40 to 60 votes in the Commons in addition to the 122 who previously opposed the government. The number is smaller than was forecast a week ago.
Fewer than five parliamentary private secretaries are now expected to rebel. One aide who was considering resigning a week ago, Peter Bradley, said: "I think the landscape has changed . . . I and others have realised that the French posturing for peace has made diplomacy impossible and war almost inevitable."
Planners will give weapons inspectors and other "vulnerable" foreigners time to leave Iraq. "We are not going to start bombing out of the blue," an official said. Other officials indicated that Washington has decided not to accept any further token gestures by Baghdad to comply with weapons inspectors.
On Friday, Iraq handed the UN a 20-page document supposedly detailing its destruction of 3.9 tons of VX nerve agent.
"It is time to come to a conclusion," warned Condoleezza Rice, the president's national security adviser. "The moment of truth is coming here." Bush's approval for war follows the near collapse of a British-led compromise effort to obtain the nine security council votes necessary to pass a second resolution.
Bush and Blair will decide today whether to force the issue to a vote despite the apparent certainty of failure, or to withdraw it and claim that legal authority for an attack is provided by earlier resolutions. The Americans believe that only Saddam's removal from power will guarantee full Iraqi disarmament.
Bush warned in a radio address yesterday that he saw little hope of disarmament without force. "Crucial days lie ahead," he said. "Governments are now showing whether their stated commitments to liberty and security are words alone — or convictions they're prepared to act on."
While Saddam has always derided attempts to persuade him to step down voluntarily, American and British officials believe he might have second thoughts once it is clear that war is imminent.
"What would you do?" one official asked. "There are 250,000 troops and God knows how many precision missiles floating around the Gulf with lots of US colonels aching to use them. Exile must be an option."
Several states are believed to have offered Saddam possible refuge, including Belarus, Libya and Syria. Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, has indicated that Washington would be ready to allow Saddam to leave if it meant a genuine change of regime. However, a plan for a last-minute appeal by Arab leaders to Saddam to go into exile and avert a war has been shelved because he has given no indication he would agree.
American officials suggested last week that revolt was growing in Iraqi military ranks. Bush has been advised by the CIA that the likelihood of a military coup against Saddam has increased.
"Our intelligence contains lots of information about disaffection and preparations to surrender or flee, which is all encouraging," one official said. Both the CIA and the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's intelligence arm, have concluded that the Iraqi leadership is "brittle".
In an effort to curb international suspicion that the war is aimed at securing oil riches, Bush and Blair are expected to agree that the Iraqi oil industry's profits should go into a fund for the country's people.
The imminence of military action has been emphasised by the rare use of heavy B1 bombers in a mission over the Iraqi no-fly zone. The bombers hit two radar sites in western Iraq.
As war preparations gathered pace, Iraq sought fresh disarmament talks, inviting the top UN weapons inspectors to Baghdad as soon as possible. Hans Blix said he would discuss the invitiation with his colleague Mohammed El Baradei. The two were expected to consult the security council tomorrow when Blix is due to deliver his latest progress report.
Meanwhile, France called for a foreign ministers' meeting of the security council on Tuesday to discuss a "realistic timetable" for Saddam to disarm. In a statement issued jointly with Russia and Germany, France declared that there was no justification for a war. "We reaffirm that nothing justifies in the present circumstances putting a stop to the inspection process and resorting to the use of force," said the declaration.
Mahmoud Abbas, expected to be confirmed as Palestinian prime minister, could be invited to Washington as part of Bush's attempts to convince the doubting Arab world that he is serious about relaunching the Middle East peace process. The proposal came after the president promised to publish a "road map" that would culminate in a Palestinian state in 2005.
Very possible. Bullies are cowards. It all depends on how much denial he is in about the conviction of the US and Bush.
Ha, I love it. The war is France's fault. But there is some truth to that. However, war was always the solution. Disarmament was always going to be impossible to prove and would never solve Iraq's support for terrorism.
"Bush has been advised by the CIA that the likelihood of a military coup against Saddam has increased."
A coup is a strong possibility once the US gives the deadline. I don't see Saddam fleeing, he is too arrogant. There is a possibility that instead of a coup the current military leadership will ask Saddam to consider exile, whereupon they will be shot and Saddam will have to replace them.
More worrisome would be a staged coup, where Saddam retains power behind the new power and then returns to power after the US troops have left. I really expect something along these lines will unfold.
It's time Saddam either slithered away in the night, or was removed from power by the US-British coalition of willing nations.
I figure they will present a deadline, outside the UN, a deadline from the coalition of the willing, a joint deadline that will give Saddam 72 hours to give up. This will give the press and inspectors time to leave too.
As if October to March wasn't long enough.
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