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The Lowdown on the Showdown

Posted on 03/14/2003 5:47:33 PM PST by GLDNGUN

While most are aware by now that President Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar will confer Sunday in the Azores, it seems just as many do not realize the weight of this meeting. This truly is a “war council”...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: appeasement; aznar; azoresislands; blair; bush; iraq; peaceinourtime; war
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To: GLDNGUN
Would you happen to know what time the press conference from the Azores will be?
281 posted on 03/15/2003 10:17:08 PM PST by swheats (God bless our soldiers. For Victory and Freedom!)
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To: swheats
Would you happen to know what time the press conference from the Azores will be?

I don't. A time may have not been set yet. One possibility is that a statement will be issued jointly by the three nations, and then a press conference of sorts held a few hours after that, prior to the leaders' departures.

282 posted on 03/15/2003 10:54:17 PM PST by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN
.
283 posted on 03/16/2003 1:18:30 AM PST by dixiechick2000
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To: swheats
Fox has been reporting that it will be 3:00 pm EST
284 posted on 03/16/2003 3:41:02 AM PST by CELTICGAEL (Celt) (To the Iraqi People...Help is on it's way! To saddam...BOHICA!!!!)
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To: MeeknMing; GLDNGUN; TigersEye
Thank you for the heads-up on this fascinating analysis by GLDNGUN. I also appreciate your additions at post #238.
285 posted on 03/16/2003 4:52:10 AM PST by .30Carbine (Watching and Praying)
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To: .30Carbine
My pleasure. Thank you . . .
286 posted on 03/16/2003 4:54:29 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (Bu-bye Saddam! / Check out my Freeper site !: http://home.attbi.com/~freeper/wsb/index.html)
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To: .30Carbine
Oh. President Bush's plane left about a half hour ago for Lajes Field, The Azores, Portugal . . .
287 posted on 03/16/2003 4:55:24 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (Bu-bye Saddam! / Check out my Freeper site !: http://home.attbi.com/~freeper/wsb/index.html)
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To: GLDNGUN
bump
288 posted on 03/16/2003 4:56:37 AM PST by sonrise57
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To: swheats
Would you happen to know what time the press conference from the Azores will be?

I read elsewhere at FR the press conference has been moved up to 1:30 Eastern time.

289 posted on 03/16/2003 6:41:00 AM PST by Iowa Granny
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To: GLDNGUN
It has been reported on the news services that Saddam has named his military commanders for the 4 areas in Iraq. Could that mean that troop movements might be underway?

No pun intended but could our President be using the meeting as a diversion while we 'Bushwack' the moving troops?

290 posted on 03/16/2003 9:48:03 AM PST by PeaRidge
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To: PeaRidge
It has been reported on the news services that Saddam has named his military commanders for the 4 areas in Iraq. Could that mean that troop movements might be underway? No pun intended but could our President be using the meeting as a diversion while we 'Bushwack' the moving troops?

Well, obviously this meeting is much more than a diversion. As for 'Bushwacking' the troops, we (the US/UK) have been hitting Iraq very hard inside and OUT of the "no fly" zones. For all intents and purposes the war was underway days ago.

291 posted on 03/16/2003 10:08:41 AM PST by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN
In reality, the UN may simply wither on the vine and eventually die.

We can only hope...

292 posted on 03/16/2003 10:14:45 AM PST by sargon
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Comment #293 Removed by Moderator

To: GLDNGUN
So how close to the mark do you think gldngun got?
294 posted on 03/16/2003 12:46:01 PM PST by sonrise57
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To: sonrise57
So how close to the mark do you think gldngun got?

Well, as I said, it is a fluid situation, and final adjustments were obviously made. A brief review:

Obviously, it will be this "Atlantic Alliance" that liberates Iraq, NOT the UN. Blair and Bush were both in a bit of a box with this issue of a second UN resolution. Blair felt like he needed one to clear any question of legitimacy in his country, while Bush has called for a vote in his recent press conference. I believe they extracted themselves from their position quite nicely. Once again, the press is missing the deft move. Again, they don't want to be perceived as killing the UN. If the UN withers and dies on the vine, they want history to record that it was countries like France who refused to back up resolutions it had voted for. I believe Tony Blair got the most out of this meeting and here is what he got: A SECOND RESOLUTION IS NOT NECESSARY TO MAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ LEGITIMATE. With this summit, the "Atlantic Alliance" have completely turned the tables on the other countries in the UN SC. Remember how the US and UK were scrambling like mad to get the votes for a second resolution for the past few days? They could not get it due to the French. This gave the effect of making it look like France held the key as to whether war would be legitimate. All France had to do is veto any resolution to keep the UN from taking action, which is precisely what they vowed to do. THIS PUT THE ALLIANCE ON THE DEFENSIVE. The Summit today turned that all around. The Alliance made it clear that UN 1441 gives them the "legitimacy" (that Blair needs) to wager war on Saddam. They are basically saying to the rest of the UN SC now, "you have your chance to get on board with us and pass a second resolution". Now if France or anyone else submits another resolution that the Alliance doesn't like, IT WILL SIMPLY BE VETOED by the US, UK, and Spain. Beautiful, ain't it? In other words, the Alliance is saying in a nutshell "UN 1441 AUTHORIZES FORCE TO DISARM SADDAM. WE ARE GOING TO DO THAT." Now, if France or anyone else submits a resolution that opposes that notion, IT WILL BE VETOED, thus making 1441 the binding resolution. NOW, instead of the US and UK scrambling for SC votes, it is France and the others that will be scrambling for votes if there's one at all. As I said, the tables have been turned on France. As you can see, the US and UK are making NO attempt any longer to get a second resolution. If there is going to be another resolution voted on, it will be one crafted by France and the others, and they know that it will be vetoed by the Alliance countries unless it meets their demands. Obviously, France is not prepared to do that, so don't expect another resolution, therefore, the Alliance is acting in regards to 1441.

As I said, the leaders would each make their statements and then leave for their homelands to address their nations. That indeed is happening. Bush didn't use the word "charade", but he did call out France for "already showing their cards", which is the same thing as saying continuing the process is a "charade". I have heard other members of the administration use that word today.

No, they did not give Saddam a deadline. Yet. That would have overshadowed their ultimatum to the UN to do something within the next 24 hours. Now, when those 24 hours have expired, expect the ultimatum and deadline for Iraq to come.

As I said, expect to hear from Bush Monday night, or Tuesday at the latest.

If the inspectors had any brains, they would leave Iraq on the next plane. If they wait until the Alliance has to issue it's ultimatum to Iraq, they are subject to being held agains their will. Hopefully, they and others will evacuate between today and tomorrow.

No, the UN didn't die today, but these leaders made it clear that a new alliance has been formed. Documents and agreements were signed, and as things play out, as the legitimacy of this new alliance rises, the relevance and legitimacy of the UN is lowered. It's like a teeter-totter if you will.

Hope that helps.

295 posted on 03/16/2003 1:23:59 PM PST by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN
I think your are exegeting the situation very well.

Bump to keep this most interesting thread going.
296 posted on 03/16/2003 1:35:48 PM PST by sonrise57
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To: sonrise57; GLDNGUN
bump it again ! Thanks GLDNGUN !
297 posted on 03/16/2003 2:18:12 PM PST by MeekOneGOP (Bu-bye Saddam! / Check out my Freeper site !: http://home.attbi.com/~freeper/wsb/index.html)
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To: GLDNGUN
Atlantic Alliance Bump!

298 posted on 03/16/2003 2:50:45 PM PST by oceanperch (Support Our Troops)
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To: GLDNGUN
WH Advisors Drafting Bush 'Declaration of War' [3PM Monday Speech]
299 posted on 03/16/2003 3:08:03 PM PST by MeekOneGOP (Bu-bye Saddam! / Check out my Freeper site !: http://home.attbi.com/~freeper/wsb/index.html)
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To: oceanperch
Atlantic Alliance Bump!

Well, as another poster pointed out, the name given this coalition as announced by each leader is the "Transatlantic" Alliance. Ok, "TAA" is not the flashiest acroynym. I was hoping for something like "Big Organization to Obliterate Terrorism", or B.O.O.T! ;-)

300 posted on 03/16/2003 3:35:12 PM PST by GLDNGUN
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