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A Theory (What if there’s method to the Franco-German madness??
National Review ^ | March 10, 2003 | Michael Ledeen

Posted on 03/10/2003 6:18:35 AM PST by conservativecorner

Assume, for a moment, that the French and the Germans aren't thwarting us out of pique, but by design, long-term design. Then look at the world again, and see if there's evidence of such a design.

Like everyone else, the French and the Germans saw that the defeat of the Soviet Empire projected the United States into the rare, almost unique position of a global hyperpower, a country so strong in every measurable element that no other nation could possibly resist its will. The "new Europe" had been designed to carve out a limited autonomy for the old continent, a balance-point between the Americans and the Soviets. But once the Soviets were gone, and the Red Army melted down, the European Union was reduced to a combination theme park and free-trade zone. Some foolish American professors and doltish politicians might say — and even believe — that henceforth "power" would be defined in economic terms, and that military power would no longer count. But cynical Europeans know better.

They dreaded the establishment of an American empire, and they sought for a way to bring it down.

If you were the French president or the German chancellor, you might well have done the same.

How could it be done? No military operation could possibly defeat the United States, and no direct economic challenge could hope to succeed. That left politics and culture. And here there was a chance to turn America's vaunted openness at home and toleration abroad against the United States. So the French and the Germans struck a deal with radical Islam and with radical Arabs: You go after the United States, and we'll do everything we can to protect you, and we will do everything we can to weaken the Americans.

The Franco-German strategy was based on using Arab and Islamic extremism and terrorism as the weapon of choice, and the United Nations as the straitjacket for blocking a decisive response from the United States.

This required considerable skill, and total cynicism, both of which were in abundant supply in Paris and Berlin. Chancellor Shroeder gained reelection by warning of American warmongering, even though, as usual, America had been attacked first. And both Shroeder and Chirac went to great lengths to support Islamic institutions in their countries, even when — as in the French case — it was in open violation of the national constitution. French law stipulates a total separation of church and state, yet the French Government openly funds Islamic "study" centers, mosques, and welfare organizations. A couple of months ago, Chirac approved the creation of an Islamic political body, a mini-parliament, that would provide Muslims living in France with official stature and enhanced political clout. And both countries have permitted the Saudis to build thousands of radical Wahhabi mosques and schools, where the hatred of the infidels is instilled in generation after generation of young Sunnis. It is perhaps no accident that Chirac went to Algeria last week and promised a cheering crowd that he would not rest until America's grand design had been defeated.

Both countries have been totally deaf to suggestions that the West take stern measures against the tyrannical terrorist sponsors in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia. Instead, they do everything in their power to undermine American-sponsored trade embargoes or more limited sanctions, and it is an open secret that they have been supplying Saddam with military technology through the corrupt ports of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid's little playground in Dubai, often through Iranian middlemen.

It sounds fanciful, to be sure. But the smartest people I know have been thoroughly astonished at recent French and German behavior. This theory may help understand what's going on. I now believe that I was wrong to forecast that the French would join the war against Iraq at the last minute, having gained every possible economic advantage in the meantime. I think Chirac will oppose us before, during, and after the war, because he has cast his lot with radical Islam and with the Arab extremists. He isn't doing it just for the money — although I have no doubt that France is being richly rewarded for defending Saddam against the civilized countries of the world — but for higher stakes. He's fighting to end the feared American domination before it takes stable shape.

If this is correct, we will have to pursue the war against terror far beyond the boundaries of the Middle East, into the heart of Western Europe. And there, as in the Middle East, our greatest weapons are political: the demonstrated desire for freedom of the peoples of the countries that oppose us.

Radio Free France, anyone?

— Michael Ledeen, an NRO contributing editor, is most recently the author of The War Against the Terror Masters. Ledeen, Resident Scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute, can be reached through Benador Associates.


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To: Grand Old Partisan
With over 1.2 billion muslims on the planet only 1% turning radical equals over a million suicide killers.
61 posted on 03/10/2003 8:57:44 AM PST by wtc911
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To: GraniteStateConservative
I still believe that the French and Germans are gambling right now for a greater cause. While the Islamic issue is real, they need them to pay into the social system in order to apy the promised pensions etc. Europe, including Russia have a very old population and it is declining.
Gamble # 1, Veto the vote, hoping that they can avert action in Iraq in order to maintain that cash cow together with Russia.
Gamble # 2, This one will make more sense. Collaborate with Germany, which was done already to show the prospective EU members that a United Europe is again a World power in order to entice them to adopt D'estaign's EU constitution. It will be a hard sell if it is maintained in it's present form. Their economies are in shambles and it will not be easy, if not impossible to revive them without restructuring their entire system. Enter the "New" EU countries who will be getting foreign investment due to their low labor costs. The Tax revenue to be divided among the rest of Europe as dictated by Brussels is what they need. The Gamble is that either it will be adopted, or there will only be a handful of coutries left. In it's present form, a nations soveirnity will be taken away and appointed Buerocrats in brussels will determine everything from taxes to education, to defense, etc. That is the real power game in their mind. Add Russia, who will probably be granted admission into the Union. Together, they believe that it will offer a real opposition to the U.S. Infact, it will have the old Warsau pact nations together with Europe as a united front. A gamble, which may pay off.
Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.



62 posted on 03/10/2003 9:01:24 AM PST by americanbychoice
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To: Paraclete
Don't believe in predestiny. Do believe that GWB is on the right path. You believe what you wish.
63 posted on 03/10/2003 9:05:27 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (RW&B)
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To: A_perfect_lady
I meant enough hubris to believe that they could get away with this kind of crap. As far as ruling the world goes, things have changed quite a bit since Napoleon and Hitler, but maybe these idiots still don't understand......
64 posted on 03/10/2003 9:26:34 AM PST by expatpat
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To: conservativecorner
On it's own I find this theory far-fetched . . . but let's take a few more steps back and look at it again. What does France, Germany, AND China and Russia have in common? Have they EVER formed any kind of coalition before? I'm sure some historian FReepers can come up with some but I can't think of any.

So . . . why are they united against us now? Are they all trying to protect Saddam? I think not. This fiasco has NEVER been about Saddam.

Ledeen makes an interesting argument but if one buys into his "theory" why would you just stop with throwing France and Germany together into some kind of conspiracy? And long-term strategies as Ledeen proposes are damn difficult to carry out where countries have an ELECTED leadership. Even if ChIRAQ and Schroeder, alone, are plotting such madness, how could they GUARANTEE that the leaders who followed them would carry on their self-defeating programs? They couldn't.

So . . . I ask again, why are France, Germany, China, and Russia feeding from the same trough over the Iraq issue?

When I think about this, after adding China and Russia into the mix, I can NOW buy into Ledeen's theory. Individually, none of them can oppose our military juggernaut and expect to win. Individually, none of them can trump our economic strength. Individually, none of their systems of government can hope to motivate the masses the way our system does where, theoretically, one reaps the rewards from ones own efforts -- France and Germany are so laden down with socialist programs and the resultant taxes that they've become impotent when competing with us and China and Russia with their wacky combination of communistic/free market programs leave their citizens wondering whether the schizophrenic pendulum will land on the totalitarian policies of times past or whether the changes will be allowed to continue regardless of short-term problems. It's this unease that'll eventually lower the maximum-achievable ceilings so much that they'll never be a threat to us -- INDIVIDUALLY.

So . . . France, Germany, Russia, and China. Hmmmmm.

The answer to me is obvious. Ledeen is right . . . but it's no complicated conspiracy and its seeds weren't planted long-ago. World events and the hubris of the back-stabbing, has-been French have given them all, in their own minds anyway, an opportunity to stymie America's power and idealistic ambitions.

Think about it. Why are they so afraid of Democracy taking root in the Middle East? Why are they so afraid of Muslim populations being empowered with the choice of deciding their own destinies? Why are they terrified of ANY kind of change in the Middle East structure?

Who do those Middle Eastern countries who're given even a limited say in their destinies emulate? What country do they emulate? France? Germany? China? Russia? Nope. The good 'ol U.S. of A. Free Arabs love our culture, our freedoms, our wealth, our open forms of expression . . . we're the standard from which Free Arabs measure all things -- even though they hate to admit it.

France, Germany, Russia, and China are terrified that, in today's world of instantaneous news and comminication, their ways of life are about to be swamped by a tsunami of pro-American imitators. They know that once the freedom-horse is out of the barn that they'll never have ABSOLUTE control of their citizenry and customs again.

Simply stated . . . they're jealous and they're terrified of American power and success and they know if they're going to stop the train they'd best do it now because they might never have this kind of chance again.

To prove my point I give you North Korea and Iran. Everyone demanded we take our Iraqi plans to the UN. Yet NO ONE wants the North Korean and Iranian issues brought up at the UN. China is North Korea's major benefactor and Russia suppied Iran with its nuclear capability.

These two situations are tests for us . . . speedbumps to see how we react. And perhaps they're even situations they hope spiral out of control so we'll get bloodied and withdraw our tentacles from around the world.

That's all any of this is. It has nothing to do with Iraq. It's the simple jealousy and fear of four upper-tier countries trying to shackle the world's ONLY 800# GORILLA. I think history has been kind to us again. Washington, Lincoln, FDR, and GW.

France is not our ally . . . they haven't been for a long, long time. Germany is not our ally. China only wants to piggy-back on our economic success until they get financially stable and then they'll be back in our faces. Clinton's Administration helped a lot by selling and/or giving our technology secrets away. Russia is . . . well . . . Russia and one had best always be aware of their habit of shifting allegiances without warning.

I can hear some of you chuckling at this idiot, red-neck, Texas conspiracist, but don't fool yourself . . . these are dangerous times and I, for one, am damn glad GW is at the helm instead of his predecessor. Appeasement got us trapped in this box . . . sheer determination will get us out.

And Great Britain and Australia are the only allies we can count on to watch our backs during good and/or bad times.

65 posted on 03/10/2003 9:30:44 AM PST by geedee
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To: Grand Old Partisan
That's so true, GOP!
66 posted on 03/10/2003 9:54:44 AM PST by Marysecretary
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To: conservativecorner
So the French and the Germans struck a deal with radical Islam and with radical Arabs: You go after the United States, and we'll do everything we can to protect you, and we will do everything we can to weaken the Americans.

I don't think they struck a deal, but they certainly seized upon the opportunity.

I have a theory of my own. The Muslims have infiltrated, and ARE infiltrating, nearly every country in the world.

The French have problems of their own with the Muslims. If the French are having to capitulate to the Muslims, that is THEIR problem, and someday their problems will be even worse. The same with the Germans. The same with the Nordic countries. The same with many other countries.

But while these countries are capitulating to the Muslims, the Muslims are increasing their numbers in these countries. It won't be long before the Muslims have a stronghold in every country, and will have increased their power, and will be able take over from within.

67 posted on 03/10/2003 9:56:07 AM PST by my_pointy_head_is_sharp
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To: GraniteStateConservative
I agree. I couldn't believe they'd go to such lengths as to try to convince the African nations to vote no. Man, the world sure is a-changin'! I no like.
68 posted on 03/10/2003 9:57:35 AM PST by Marysecretary
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To: Flurry
Then 'maybe' J.C. won't solve the world's problems ;)
69 posted on 03/10/2003 10:05:07 AM PST by Paraclete
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To: Paraclete
Then 'maybe' J.C. won't solve the world's problems ;)

Lost me.
70 posted on 03/10/2003 10:22:07 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (RW&B)
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To: Grand Old Partisan
Given the surging Moslem population in Europe, in thirty years the Moslem nation with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons will be France.

That is why it has always been foolish for the Communists and other enemies of the U.S., and enemies are not only military rivals, to attempt to use the Muslims as tools to defeat us. The Islamists use as their justification for world conquest a particular interpretation of Islam that calls for the death of all who do not agree with them, including other Muslims. That also includes the French, Germans, Russians, Chinese, etc., who have incorporated them into their causes. I suppose the Communists rely on their own willingness to be ruthless to bring about a final solution to the Muslim problem once the U.S. has been defeated. Yet, they all fail to heed the old camel getting his nose under the tent parable and that, as I understand it, was your point.

71 posted on 03/10/2003 10:54:24 AM PST by Mind-numbed Robot
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To: All
France Opposes Force, Inspections, Logic, Courage

Point-by-point exposition of France's whipsawing contradictions, by blogger Rip Rowan.

72 posted on 03/10/2003 1:36:39 PM PST by tictoc
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To: GraniteStateConservative
Is there any single resource more important to the US economy than oil? France doesn't care about Muslims, if they cared about Muslims they surely wouldn't have been making deals with a sadistic tyrant. They are fighting us by proxy, protecting the status quo in the Middle East of chaos, unpredictable threats, oppression, etc.

If the United States were to liberate Iraq and the seeds of democracy took root we would have a predictable partner in free trade that benefits the greatest numbers of both countries. We would protect ourselves from economic blackmail and extortion. This is what France and Russia know. They stand not on a single principle in their opposition to us, not freedom, not human rights and not international law. They are simply against us. A few years ago France was trying to put an end to the sanctions in Iraq and have some kind of passive inspection process. This current fight is not new, it is just coming to a head.
73 posted on 03/10/2003 5:37:00 PM PST by Dolphy
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To: conservativecorner
bump
74 posted on 03/10/2003 6:37:53 PM PST by the-ironically-named-proverbs2
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To: Dolphy
Muslims support that tyrant and France fears retaliation from Muslims should France oppose that tyrant. France cares about Muslims. The caring is fear-based, but they most definitely care.
75 posted on 03/11/2003 5:24:39 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: GraniteStateConservative
Guess we will have to disagree that France's position is based on their concern for Muslims, or Muslim reaction within their country. Perhaps, if this were genuine, they might consider abstaining as Pakistan has indicated they will.
76 posted on 03/11/2003 3:03:13 PM PST by Dolphy
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To: Dolphy
Pakistan is different. They don't envy us the way France does. It's the combination of the two that explains France's behavior.
77 posted on 03/11/2003 4:48:43 PM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: Grand Old Partisan
You are Badly Misinformed!

Americans can Seldom "muster" the "ENERGY" TO HATE ANYONE, UNLESS our Fellow Citizens have been Attacked!

Americans React to Aggression; We Do Not Intiate Aggression!!

78 posted on 03/11/2003 5:18:41 PM PST by Doc On The Bay
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To: GraniteStateConservative
Envy, desire to balance US power, economic interests or a downright hostility that will never be mended, are much more on point. A fear of Muslim retribution, which Kuwait, Jordan, Pakistan and others are far more at risk, would not cause the French to be the vocal leader of the opposition.
79 posted on 03/11/2003 5:33:49 PM PST by Dolphy
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To: All
All I know is the French are up to something very serious. The French are very close to going into the 'Against' column.
80 posted on 03/11/2003 5:42:59 PM PST by Spruce
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