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N.KOREA'S TEST WASNT OLD 'SILKWORM', BUT ANGOL-1 LONG- RANGE MISSILE!!(MORE TROUBLE EXPECTED)
Dong-a Ilbo Newspaper (English) ^ | 28 February 2003 | Dong-a Ilbo Newspaper (English)

Posted on 02/28/2003 7:55:32 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo

North Korea Tests Long-Range Missile

FEBRUARY 28, 2003 22:47

North Korea tested a new long-range cruise missile Monday, not a short-range, 1950s-era weapon as first reported in The Washington Post on Thursday.

Citing U.S. intelligence officials insisting on anonymity, the paper said, "The missile was identified as a long-range variant of China`s HY-2 Silkworm missile dubbed “AG-1” by the Pentagon."

The new anti-ship cruise missile is estimated to have a maximum range of just under 100 miles, which indicates a significant increase in missile power for North Korea, stated the newspaper.

The long range gives Pyongyang`s military an "over the horizon" strike capability that could be used against U.S. aircraft carriers and warships, according to U.S. officials. The AG-1 was first tested in May 1997 from a military base at the Angol army barracks in the northeastern part of North Korea.

U.S. intelligence officials said additional tests by Pyongyang are expected in coming days and the launch facility is being closely watched.

In the meanwhile, North Korea is believed to have tested a rocket booster in January at a Taepodong ballistic missile launch site in Musudanri, Hamgyeong-bukdo, as confirmed by U.S. spy satellite photos and other intelligence reports, the Daily Yomiuri reported on Thursday.

The intelligence data indicate that the launch facility is equipped with a fiber-optic network, while areas around the launch-pad have been roofed in an apparent attempt to deter surveillance, the paper also reported.

Japanese government sources added that there was no sign that a launch of the Taepodong missile is imminent as it has not been confirmed yet that North Korea has begun to assemble the missile`s engine and main body.

North Korea announced it would freeze missile launches following U.S.-North Korea talks held in September 1999. However, it once threatened to resume missile tests last month.

Japanese government sources said that North Korea has continued its missile development program by conducting missile engine tests once or twice a year since late 1999, although it has not launched any missiles.

On Aug. 31, 1998, North Korea test-fired the intermediate-range Taepodong I off a 22m launch-pad, which, after improvements, was heightened to 33m for launching of Taepodong-II in 1999.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; Japan; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: ag1; crisis; dprk; evil; kimjongil; missile; nkorea; nukes; taepodong
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Estimates I have heard on the Angol-1 missile are nearly 260 miles, not 100 miles.

Despite the claim by the Japanese government, which is positive at best, it is true that missile testing activities are being put underground and a series of awnings are also being constructed in order to avoid detection (as mentioned in the article).

I personally expect a Taepodong-2 test launch within a month, as a threatening action against Japan as well as pressure on the USA to enter talks bilaterally with North Korea.

1 posted on 02/28/2003 7:55:33 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo
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To: AmericanInTokyo
The first Angol-1 apparently misfired, and the second didn't cover a whole lot of ground, but it is an indication that they are working to improve their ballistic missile technology.

I agree with your assessment of an imminent Taepodong 2 launch. Kim is likely going to have it conincide with certain global events, to maximize the scare factor and shock value. His intent is to keep turning up the pressure, and he certainly is. This all has the potential to spiral out of control.

2 posted on 02/28/2003 8:05:44 AM PST by Steel Wolf
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To: AmericanInTokyo
Maybe its coming from the the Hagap underground facilty in the Myohang Mountain range in North Korea?

If so I have satellite pictures bookmarked of that site too, but they are about 6 months old:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/myohyang-imagery.htm
3 posted on 02/28/2003 8:09:26 AM PST by judicial meanz (If you sacrfice your freedom and liberty for a feeling of security, you dont deserve to be free)
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To: judicial meanz
I believe there is still some debate as to precisely where "Hagap" is

For any launch on Japan as a test or an actual attack, it is likely to come from one of two locations in Hwadae County, along the northeast coast of the DPRK, in Hamgyonbuk-do Province, IMHO. However, they know that we know where a lot of their stuff is, so they could launch from an area we had not considered.

4 posted on 02/28/2003 8:14:16 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (Easy to UNDERRATE N.Korea: Idiotic leader, starving people. BUT DON'T! They could attack in a flash.)
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To: judicial meanz
I believe there is still some debate as to precisely where "Hagap" is.

For any launch on Japan as a test or an actual attack, it is likely to come from one of two locations in Hwadae County, along the northeast coast of the DPRK, in Hamgyonbuk-do Province, IMHO. However, they know that we know where a lot of their stuff is, so they could launch from an area we had not considered.

5 posted on 02/28/2003 8:16:19 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (Easy to UNDERRATE N.Korea: Idiotic leader, starving people. BUT DON'T! They could attack in a flash.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
The substance of this was in Gertz' article in yesterday's Washington Times. Good to see it getting press in Japan. Is this also being covered in the Japanese-language press?
6 posted on 02/28/2003 8:16:20 AM PST by CatoRenasci (Ceterum Censeo Mesopotamiam Esse Delendam)
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To: AmericanInTokyo; Poohbah; section9
Too bad we can't get an Airborne Laser over there for a test to coincide with the NK Taepo-dong 2 launch...

Suppose the missile launched and blew up in boost-phase? :)
7 posted on 02/28/2003 8:19:09 AM PST by hchutch ("Last suckers crossed, Syndicate shot'em up" - Ice-T, "I'm Your Pusher")
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To: CatoRenasci
The Japanese are slow on this one. They are basically (like the Sankei News) picking it up from Korean newspaper sources (like Hankook Ilbo). The Korean TV today (based on NYT) is also reporting specific stuff that I don't even feel comfortable talking about here regarding the Korean Peninsula next summer.
8 posted on 02/28/2003 8:23:33 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (Easy to UNDERRATE N.Korea: Idiotic leader, starving people. BUT DON'T! They could attack in a flash.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo; hchutch
Estimates I have heard on the Angol-1 missile are nearly 260 miles, not 100 miles.

Great. Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?

OK, class...can anyone tell me why the US Navy got rid of the Tomahawk Antiship Missile (TASM), despite keeping the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) variant?

9 posted on 02/28/2003 8:25:30 AM PST by Poohbah (Beware the fury of a patient man -- John Dryden)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
The NK's do little that's not approved by the PRC.
10 posted on 02/28/2003 8:25:56 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: AmericanInTokyo
I wonder if China wants to use Iraq and DPRK to "preview" their antiship technology in a deniable way.

Keep an eye on Iran. They have invested very heavily in countership missiles, and there are now many ultra-high value targets in their neighborhood...

11 posted on 02/28/2003 8:27:06 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: Poohbah
*raises hand*

OTH target problems?
12 posted on 02/28/2003 8:27:25 AM PST by hchutch ("Last suckers crossed, Syndicate shot'em up" - Ice-T, "I'm Your Pusher")
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To: Poohbah
>>Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?<<

Fraternal technical assistance?

13 posted on 02/28/2003 8:28:29 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: Poohbah
Don't count it out of the scenario planning here.

The DPRK have a whole merchant marine and fishing boat force which is essentially part of the Directorate of Espionage from the Korean Workers Party. Any of these ships, or 'trawlers', outfitted with considerable comm equipment, could easily surveil American warship activity in the Sea of Japan...and transmit same, including coordinates, to North Korea, for the appropriate attack by their forces.

14 posted on 02/28/2003 8:31:19 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (Easy to UNDERRATE N.Korea: Idiotic leader, starving people. BUT DON'T! They could attack in a flash.)
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To: Jim Noble
>>Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?<<<

Fraternal technical assistance?

From who, please?

15 posted on 02/28/2003 8:32:44 AM PST by Poohbah (Beware the fury of a patient man -- John Dryden)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
reply privately please if you'd rather, but I'm most curious!
16 posted on 02/28/2003 8:36:12 AM PST by CatoRenasci (Ceterum Censeo Mesopotamiam Esse Delendam)
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To: Poohbah
accuracy from that distance of course would be an issue.

always better to err on the side of 'they can eventually do', rather than 'than probably never can'.

17 posted on 02/28/2003 8:36:13 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (Easy to UNDERRATE N.Korea: Idiotic leader, starving people. BUT DON'T! They could attack in a flash.)
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To: Jim Noble
I can't see Iran trying to sink a U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf when they'll soon have the U.S. Army on both sides of their border. That's just not smart.

The conspiracty theorist in me says that would be effective, if timed to coincide with attacks from Iraq and North Korea, but the odds of that happening are basically nil. Tha would make a great movie, though.

18 posted on 02/28/2003 8:37:22 AM PST by Steel Wolf
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To: hchutch
Very good!

During the Outlaw Shark series of exercises in the Mediterranean, the simulated Tomahawks wound up hitting friendly merchies and a fleet oiler. And this was with OTH-T data that was orders of magnitude better than what the ChiComs or North Korea would have.

19 posted on 02/28/2003 8:37:57 AM PST by Poohbah (Beware the fury of a patient man -- John Dryden)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
The DPRK have a whole merchant marine and fishing boat force which is essentially part of the Directorate of Espionage from the Korean Workers Party. Any of these ships, or 'trawlers', outfitted with considerable comm equipment, could easily surveil American warship activity in the Sea of Japan...and transmit same, including coordinates, to North Korea, for the appropriate attack by their forces.

Great. Now all they gotta do is get the missile to actually fly into a hostile ship.

We routinely lit up friendly ships during OTH-T exercises, and we had even more reliable data than the DPRK trawler fleet could develop.

BTW, this trick would work only if the first strike of the war is at sea and not on land--because once the balloon goes up, the DPRK's merchie fleet isn't going to be able to phone home, and they're going to get boarded/sunk in the first few minutes of hostilities.

20 posted on 02/28/2003 8:41:19 AM PST by Poohbah (Beware the fury of a patient man -- John Dryden)
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