Posted on 02/28/2003 7:55:32 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo
North Korea Tests Long-Range Missile
FEBRUARY 28, 2003 22:47
North Korea tested a new long-range cruise missile Monday, not a short-range, 1950s-era weapon as first reported in The Washington Post on Thursday.
Citing U.S. intelligence officials insisting on anonymity, the paper said, "The missile was identified as a long-range variant of China`s HY-2 Silkworm missile dubbed “AG-1” by the Pentagon."
The new anti-ship cruise missile is estimated to have a maximum range of just under 100 miles, which indicates a significant increase in missile power for North Korea, stated the newspaper.
The long range gives Pyongyang`s military an "over the horizon" strike capability that could be used against U.S. aircraft carriers and warships, according to U.S. officials. The AG-1 was first tested in May 1997 from a military base at the Angol army barracks in the northeastern part of North Korea.
U.S. intelligence officials said additional tests by Pyongyang are expected in coming days and the launch facility is being closely watched.
In the meanwhile, North Korea is believed to have tested a rocket booster in January at a Taepodong ballistic missile launch site in Musudanri, Hamgyeong-bukdo, as confirmed by U.S. spy satellite photos and other intelligence reports, the Daily Yomiuri reported on Thursday.
The intelligence data indicate that the launch facility is equipped with a fiber-optic network, while areas around the launch-pad have been roofed in an apparent attempt to deter surveillance, the paper also reported.
Japanese government sources added that there was no sign that a launch of the Taepodong missile is imminent as it has not been confirmed yet that North Korea has begun to assemble the missile`s engine and main body.
North Korea announced it would freeze missile launches following U.S.-North Korea talks held in September 1999. However, it once threatened to resume missile tests last month.
Japanese government sources said that North Korea has continued its missile development program by conducting missile engine tests once or twice a year since late 1999, although it has not launched any missiles.
On Aug. 31, 1998, North Korea test-fired the intermediate-range Taepodong I off a 22m launch-pad, which, after improvements, was heightened to 33m for launching of Taepodong-II in 1999.
Despite the claim by the Japanese government, which is positive at best, it is true that missile testing activities are being put underground and a series of awnings are also being constructed in order to avoid detection (as mentioned in the article).
I personally expect a Taepodong-2 test launch within a month, as a threatening action against Japan as well as pressure on the USA to enter talks bilaterally with North Korea.
I agree with your assessment of an imminent Taepodong 2 launch. Kim is likely going to have it conincide with certain global events, to maximize the scare factor and shock value. His intent is to keep turning up the pressure, and he certainly is. This all has the potential to spiral out of control.
For any launch on Japan as a test or an actual attack, it is likely to come from one of two locations in Hwadae County, along the northeast coast of the DPRK, in Hamgyonbuk-do Province, IMHO. However, they know that we know where a lot of their stuff is, so they could launch from an area we had not considered.
For any launch on Japan as a test or an actual attack, it is likely to come from one of two locations in Hwadae County, along the northeast coast of the DPRK, in Hamgyonbuk-do Province, IMHO. However, they know that we know where a lot of their stuff is, so they could launch from an area we had not considered.
Great. Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?
OK, class...can anyone tell me why the US Navy got rid of the Tomahawk Antiship Missile (TASM), despite keeping the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) variant?
Keep an eye on Iran. They have invested very heavily in countership missiles, and there are now many ultra-high value targets in their neighborhood...
Fraternal technical assistance?
The DPRK have a whole merchant marine and fishing boat force which is essentially part of the Directorate of Espionage from the Korean Workers Party. Any of these ships, or 'trawlers', outfitted with considerable comm equipment, could easily surveil American warship activity in the Sea of Japan...and transmit same, including coordinates, to North Korea, for the appropriate attack by their forces.
Fraternal technical assistance?
From who, please?
always better to err on the side of 'they can eventually do', rather than 'than probably never can'.
The conspiracty theorist in me says that would be effective, if timed to coincide with attacks from Iraq and North Korea, but the odds of that happening are basically nil. Tha would make a great movie, though.
During the Outlaw Shark series of exercises in the Mediterranean, the simulated Tomahawks wound up hitting friendly merchies and a fleet oiler. And this was with OTH-T data that was orders of magnitude better than what the ChiComs or North Korea would have.
Great. Now all they gotta do is get the missile to actually fly into a hostile ship.
We routinely lit up friendly ships during OTH-T exercises, and we had even more reliable data than the DPRK trawler fleet could develop.
BTW, this trick would work only if the first strike of the war is at sea and not on land--because once the balloon goes up, the DPRK's merchie fleet isn't going to be able to phone home, and they're going to get boarded/sunk in the first few minutes of hostilities.
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